Public divided on franking credits proposal

The national poll of 1,200 respondents, interviewed from 12-15 February 2019, shows the Labor party on 51% (down three points since December 2018), with the Coalition on 49% (up three points since December), based on 2016 election preferences. 

“This indicates a 1.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election. This is the fifteenth consecutive month where Labor has led the Coalition in the two party preferred preference flow vote figures,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

The two-party stated preference vote also shows the Labor party on 51% (down three points since December) and the Coalition on 49% (up three points since December). 

The Coalition’s first preference vote is 38% (up two points since December) with Labor on 33% (down four points since December). The Greens’ primary vote is 13% (unchanged since December), One Nation is on 5% (down one point since December), the Centre Alliance is on 1% (unchanged since December) and others are on 11% (up three points since December).

Eight per cent of respondents are undecided (up one point since December).  These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures and from the primary vote figures.

Key findings 

• Leaders’ approval ratings: Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s approval rating has risen slightly to 49% (up two points since December), and his disapproval rating is 40% (up one point since December). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 40% (down one point since December), and his disapproval rating is 52% (up two points since December).
• Preferred Prime Minister: 48% prefer Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister (up two points since December); 38% prefer Bill Shorten (up one point since December)
• Preferred Federal Teasurer: 31% prefer Chris Bowen as Federal Treasurer, 30% prefer Josh Frydenberg, and 37% say they ‘don’t know’
• Response to the Royal Commission - 34% trust the Coalition to respond to the Banking Royal Commission, 49% trust the Labor Party.
• Franking credits - 40% support Labor’s franking credits proposal, and 43% are opposed.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister                                                                   

Scott Morrison’s approval rating has lifted slightly to 49% (up two points since December), and his disapproval rating is 40% (up one point since December).  The proportion who say they ‘neither approve nor disapprove’ or ‘don’t know’, continues to fall (down three points to 11%). 

Bill Shorten’s approval rating is virtually unchanged, with approval at 40% (down one point since December). His disapproval rating has risen slightly, at 52% (up two points since December).  This gives a net approval of -12 (down three points since December). 

Scott Morrison remains the preferred Prime Minister with 48% (up two points since December) and 38% prefer Bill Shorten as PM (up one point since December).  

Preferred Federal Treasurer

When asked to consider who they would prefer as Federal Treasurer, the public are equally split, with 30% saying Josh Frydenberg, 31% mentioning Chris Bowen, and more than one third, 37%, saying they ‘don’t know’.

Josh Frydenberg is significantly more likely to be mentioned as the preferred Federal Treasurer by men than women (35% and 26%, respectively).  He is also more likely to be mentioned by older voters, reflecting the age profile of Coalition supporters.

Response to the Royal Commission

Only a third (34%) of the public trust the Coalition to respond to the Banking Royal Commission report; this rises to 72% among Coalition voters.  In contrast, half (49%) trust the Labor Party.

Franking credits

Public support for the Labor Party’s franking credits proposal is divided; 40% support the idea, 43% are opposed and 16% ‘don’t know’.   Support broadly follows party lines with Labor voters more likely to support the suggestion (56%), and Coalition voters more likely to oppose it (62%).

Support for the proposal is significantly higher among younger voters (53% among those aged 18-24), among those in work (43%), those who are more highly educated (46%) and those who are not owner-occupiers (50%).

Women are significantly more likely to say that they ‘don’t know’ than men (20%, compared to 12%).

Poll Profile    

Fieldwork dates:           12-16 February 2019

Sample size:                 1,200 respondents

Sample:                        National, aged 18+, 50% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.

Method:                         Telephone, using random digit dialling.

Statistical reliability:      ±2.9% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample

Analysis:         The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution