Rise in support for both Turnbull and Coalition

The Labor Party’s lead over the Coalition has narrowed in the July 2018 Fairfax Ipsos Poll.

Rise in support for both Turnbull and Coalition

The national poll of 1,200 respondents, interviewed from 18-21 July 2018, shows the Labor party on 51% (down two points since June), with the Coalition on 49% (up two points since June), based on 2016 election preferences.

“This indicates a -1.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election,” Ipsos Director, Jessica Elgood, said.

“The two-party stated preference vote shows the Labor party on 50%, down four points since June, and the Coalition on 50%, up four points since June.”

First preference votes put Labor on 34% (down one point since June) and the Coalition on 39% (up four points since June).   The Greens are on 12% (unchanged since June), One Nation is on 6% (unchanged since June), Nick Xenophon Team is on 2% and others are on 8%.

Five per cent of respondents are undecided.  These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures and from the primary vote figures.

Key findings

  • Leaders’ approval ratings: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 55% (up five points since June), and disapproval at 38% (down six points since June). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 38% (down two points since June), and disapproval at 54% (up one point since June).
  • Preferred Prime Minister: 57% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as the Prime Minister (up six points since June); 30% prefer Bill Shorten (down three points since June).
  • Best Party on issues: The Coalition is seen as best for handling the economy (60%), interest rates (56%) and asylum seekers (45%), and Labor best for handling health and hospitals (48%), education (49%) and the environment (49%). Despite Labor being seen as better in social policy areas, the Coalition has significantly improved its perceived handling of all three of these issues.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister                                                                   

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has improved, rising to 55% (up five points since June), and his disapproval rating has dipped to 38% (down six points since June).  This gives a positive net approval of +17 (up eleven points since June).  This is the Prime Minister’s highest approval rating since March 2016.

Bill Shorten’s ratings are the reverse of the Prime Minister’s, with approval at 38% (down two points since June) and his disapproval rating is 54% (up one point since June).  This gives a net approval of -16 (down three points since June).  This is the Opposition Leader’s highest disapproval rating since April 2016.

Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister, at 57% (up six points since June); only 30% prefer Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (down three points since June).  This is also Turnbull’s highest rating as preferred Prime Minister since March 2016.

Best party on issues

When asked which of the major parties would be best at handling a range of key policy areas, the Labor party is again named for social policy related issues, (health and hospitals 48%, education 49% and the environment 49%), and the Coalition is named as being best for handling the economy (60%), interest rates (56%) and asylum seekers (45%).

Looking at the trend data over time, we see that the Coalition has made significant gains in how it is perceived as handling policy areas that are typically strong for Labor, with a six-point increase for the Coalition as being best for handling health and hospitals, a five point increase for education and a seven point increase for the environment.

Q.  I am going to read out a number of issues.  Which of the major parties, the Labor Party of the Liberal-National Coalition, do you think would be best for handling … ?

 

 

Health and hospitals

Education

The economy

The environment

Interest rates

Asylum seekers

 

ALP

LNP

ALP

LNP

ALP

LNP

ALP

LNP

ALP

LNP

ALP

LNP

Sep 03

50

35

50

38

25

65

48

36

-

-

-

-

Dec 03

54

35

56

35

30

64

53

34

-

-

-

-

Feb 04

54

30

56

32

30

56

51

31

-

-

-

-

Aug 04

54

31

55

34

28

63

57

29

-

-

-

-

Aug 06

-

-

-

-

43

54

-

-

-

-

-

-

Feb 07

53

32

55

32

33

56

60

26

-

-

-

-

May 07

50

35

54

35

30

60

58

26

-

-

-

-

Oct 07

54

32

55

33

30

59

57

27

32

47

-

-

Mar 10

53

37

59

33

42

51

51

36

39

48

-

-

Jul 10

57

33

56

36

39

53

51

35

36

50

42

44

Mar 12

-

-

-

-

36

57

-

-

-

-

-

-

Jul 13

50

42

56

36

41

52

57

34

39

48

34

54

Aug 13

-

-

56

36

38

56

-

-

-

-

39

47

Jun 16

50

35

51

37

29

58

46

28

28

51

32

47

Jul 18

48

41

49

42

33

60

49

35

33

56

41

45

Poll Profile    

Fieldwork dates:           18-21 July 2018

Sample size:                 1,200 respondents

Sample:                         National, aged 18+, 50% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.

Method:                         Telephone, using random digit dialling.

Statistical reliability:      ±2.9% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample

Analysis:                       The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.