Shorten records lowest approval ratings as opposition leader – Fairfax Ipsos Poll

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 35% (down 6 points since June), according to the latest national Fairfax Ipsos Poll, while his disapproval rating is 55% (up 8 points since June). This gives a net approval of -20 (down 14 points since June) and Shorten’s lowest approval rating since becoming Opposition Leader in October 2013.

6 July 2015

Labor leads the Coalition in voting intention

Shorten remains the preferred Prime Minister, however, at 43%, an increase of 1 point since June. Thirty nine per cent favour Tony Abbott as Prime Minister (a rise 2 of points since June).

Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 36% (down 4 points since June). His disapproval rating is 59% (up 5 points since June). This gives a net approval of -23 (down 9 points since June).

Labor is ahead of the Coalition, with the national poll of 1,402 respondents, interviewed from 2-4 July 2015, showing the Labor party with 53% of the two-party preferred vote (unchanged since June), ahead of the Coalition on 47% (also unchanged since June), based on 2013 election preferences.

“This indicates a -6.5% swing against the Abbott Government since the September 2013 Federal election,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said. “The two-party stated preference vote also shows the Labor party on 53%, down 1 point since June, leading the Coalition on 47%, up 1 point since June.”

First preference votes put the Labor party on 35% (down 2 points since June) and the Coalition on 39% (down 1 point since June). The Greens continue to lead the minor parties with 16% (up 2 points since June). The Palmer United Party remains on 1% (unchanged since June), and the others are on 8% (unchanged since June). Six per cent of respondents are undecided. These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

Leader attributes

The tables below shows the attribute scores for Abbott and Shorten.

Of the eleven attributes, Bill Shorten has a statistically significant lead on six; being open to ideas (68%), having a firm grasp of social policy (59%), having the confidence of his party (56%), being viewed as more competent (52%), and having a firm grasp of economic policy (43%).

He is also seen as being more easily influenced by minority groups (46%), and there has been a 15-point fall in those saying he has the confidence of his party (from 71% to 56% since November 2014).

*Mr Shorten*
% saying attribute applies	July 2014	Nov 2014	July 2015	Change
Open to ideas	58	68	68	0
Has a firm grasp of social policy	58	62	59	-3
Has the confidence of his party	63	71	56	-15
Competent	57	58	52	-6
Is easily influenced by minority groups	42	44	46	+2
Has a firm grasp of economic policy	45	43	43	0
Trustworthy	45	44	39	-5
Has a firm grasp of foreign policy	38	42	39	-3
Has a clear vision for Australia’s future	38	43	36	-7
Strong leader	40	43	34	-9
Has the ability to make things happen	36	36	35	-1

*Mr Abbott*
% saying attribute applies	Aug 2010	Oct 2012	Apr 2013	July 2013	July 2014	Nov 2014	Feb¹2015	July 2015	Change
Has the ability to make things happen	58	51	57	49	58	48	43	55	+12
Has the confidence of his party	73	64	76	79	64	53	21	51	+30
Has a clear vision for Australia’s future	51	49	53	48	54	49	42	49	+7
Has a firm grasp of economic policy	52	52	53	49	45	46	38	47	+9
Competent	63	58	60	55	52	50	39	45	+6
Strong leader	54	50	52	48	47	42	33	42	+9
Has a firm grasp of foreign policy	46	43	47	39	43	45	–	42	–
Trustworthy	46	41	47	40	35	36	36	35	-1
Open to ideas	55	46	52	46	38	39	35	34	-1
Is easily influenced by minority groups	28	27	23	28	28	29	30	28	-2
Has a firm grasp of social policy	51	44	45	47	34	31	29	30	+1

While Tony Abbott’s attribute ratings have generally improved since his low point of February 2015, no Prime Minister has received such a low figure for being a strong leader (42%) and having a firm grasp of foreign policy (42%).

Constitutional recognition
The vast majority of Australians (85%) supports the amendment of the constitution to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people as the first inhabitants of Australia; only 11% are opposed. Young voters (under 25) and women are significant more likely to support this proposal (90% and 89%, respectively).

This marks a positive shift in support from 77% in 2013 to current figure of 85%; which means a balance of opinion of +57 that has improved to +74.

Nielsen polls in 1999 and 2012 also polled this issue, but with question wording that is distinct and cannot be directly compared. In January and August 1999 the question was asked in the context of the republic referendum, and respondents were asked: “Should the preamble to the Constitution be rewritten to acknowledge Aborigines as the first inhabitants of Australia?”

In February 2012, this was asked as: “Thinking now about the Australian Constitution, do you think the preamble to the Constitution should be rewritten to acknowledge Aborigines as the first inhabitants of Australia or not?”

Acknowledge Aborigines in Constitution Preamble
	Support	Oppose	Don’t know
Open to ideas	63	61	62
Has a firm grasp of social policy	26	28	33
Has the confidence of his party	11	11	5

Suspension of citizenship

Three-quarters of Australians (75%) support the removal of citizenship from those Australians (with sole citizenships) who take part in terrorist activities, when that person is able to become a citizen of another country; 21% are opposed.

This issue divides clearly by party lines, with Coalition voters significantly more likely to back this proposition (89% support), in contrast to Labor voters (69%) and Green voters (49%).

*Poll Profile*
Fieldwork dates:	2-4 July 2015
Sample size:	1,402 respondents
Sample:	National, aged 18+. 29% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method:	Telephone, using random digit dialling
Statistical reliability:	±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis	The data has been weighted by age, gender and location (metro/non-metro) to reflect the population distribution.

¹ The February 2015 Fairfax Ipsos poll asked leader attributes of Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. This question was not asked about Bill Shorten at this time.
⁴ Previously asked in Nielson national poll of n=1400 respondents, between 10-12 April 2014.

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