Turnbull continues to haemorrhage support

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has fallen four points to 51% since March,
and the Labor Party is now tied with the Coalition in voting intention, in the latest Fairfax Ipsos
Poll released today.

The national poll of 1,402 respondents, interviewed from 14-16 April 2016, also shows that
Turnbull’s disapproval rating is 38% (up 6 points since March), which gives a net approval of
+13 (down 10 points since March). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is
unchanged at 33%, while his disapproval rating is 55% (up 3 points since March). This gives
him a net approval of -22 (down 3 points since March).

“Our latest Fairfax Ipsos Poll shows that Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime
Minister, at 54%, a fall of 7 points since March. Twenty seven per cent favour Bill Shorten
as Prime Minister, which is a rise of 5 points since March. In addition, from 11 leader
attributes we polled, Mr Turnbull has a significant lead on seven, including being viewed as
‘competent’ and ‘has a firm grasp of economic policy’,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

Key findings

• Voting intentions: On a two-party vote, based on 2013 election preferences: Coalition
  50% (down 3 points since March) with Labor 50% (up 3 points since March). First
  preferences: Coalition 42% (down 3 points since March), Labor 33% (up 2 points since
  March).
• Preferred Prime Minister: 54% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister (down 7 points
  since March); 27% prefer Bill Shorten (up 5 points since March)
• Personal attributes: When asked about Turnbull and Shorten’s personal attributes,
  Turnbull has a significant lead on seven of the 11 attributes. However, the strength of
  his attribute ratings has worsened significantly since October, whereas Shorten’s ratings
  have remained largely unchanged.
• Royal Commission into banks: 65% believe that there should be a Royal Commission
  into the behaviour of Australian banks; a quarter (26%) do not.

Voting intentions
The Labor Party is ahead of the Coalition. The Coalition is on 50% (down 3 points since
March), tied with the Labor Party also with 50% of the two-party preferred vote (up 3 points
since March), based on 2013 election preferences. This indicates a 3.5% swing against the
Coalition Government since the September 2013 Federal election.

The two-party stated preference vote shows a lead for the Coalition on 51% (down 3 points
since March) and Labor on 49% (up 3 points since March).

First preference votes put the Coalition on 42% (down 3 points since March) and Labor on
33% (up 2 points since March). The Greens lead the minor parties with 14% (unchanged
since March). Others are on 10% (unchanged since March). 7% of respondents are
undecided. These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 51% (down 4 points since March). His disapproval
rating is 38% (up 6 points since March). This gives a net approval of +13 (down 10 points
since March).

Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 33% (unchanged since March). His disapproval rating is
55% (up 3 points since March). This gives a net approval of -22 (down 3 points since
March).

Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister, at 54%, a fall of 7 points since
March. 27% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (a rise of 5 points since March).

Leader characteristics
Of eleven leader attributes, Malcolm Turnbull has a statistically significant lead on seven
(those in bold in the table below). In contrast, Bill Shorten has a significant lead on three
attributes.

While being described in more positive terms than Shorten, the attribute ratings for Turnbull
have all worsened significantly since they were last measured in October 2015. The only
aspect on which his score has increased is the negative attribute that he ‘is easily influenced
by minority groups’, up 7 points at 34%.

Bill Shorten’s attribute ratings have remained largely static and unchanged since October
2015, with no significant move on any of the attributes.

Royal Commission into Australian Banks
A majority (65%) believes that there should be a Royal Commission into the behaviour of
Australian banks; a quarter (26%) disagree. The balance of opinion is +39.
Labor and Greens voters are overwhelmingly in favour of a Royal Commission (78% and
79%, respectively), with significantly lower support among Coalition voters (53%).

Poll Profile
Fieldwork dates: 14-16 April 2016
Sample size: 1,402 respondents
Sample: National, aged 18+. 34% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.
Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample.
The data has been weighted by age, gender and location (metro/non-metro) to
reflect the population distribution.