Turnbull still ahead, but perception of Shorten’s image improves - Fairfax Ipsos Poll

The Labor Party has increased its lead over the Coalition in the May 2018 Fairfax Ipsos Poll.

Turnbull still ahead, but perception of Shorten’s image improves - Fairfax Ipsos Poll

The national poll of 1,200 respondents, interviewed from 20-23 June 2018, shows the Labor party on 53% (down one point since May), with the Coalition on 47% (up one point since May), based on 2016 election preferences.
“This indicates a -3.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election,” Ipsos Director, Jessica Elgood, said.
“The two-party stated preference vote shows the Labor party on 54%, up one point since May, and the Coalition on 46%, down one point since May.”
First preference votes put Labor on 35% (down two points since May) and the Coalition on 35% (down one point since May).   The Greens are on 12% (up one point since May), One Nation is on 6% (up one point since May), Nick Xenophon Team is on 3% and others are on 9%. Six per cent of respondents are undecided.  These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures and from the primary vote figures.

Key findings

  • Leaders’ approval ratings: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 50% (down one point since May), and disapproval at 44% (up five points since May). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 40% (up one point since May), and disapproval at 53% (up two points since May).
  • Preferred Prime Minister: 51% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as the Prime Minister (down one point since May); 33% prefer Bill Shorten (up one point since May)
  • Leader attributes: When asked to consider Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten’s personal attributes, Turnbull has a lead on eight of the eleven attributes. He is seen as competent, open to ideas and having a firm grasp of both economic and foreign policy.  However, Shorten’s attribute ratings have all improved since the question was last asked in April 2016.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister                                                                   

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has remained steady, at 50% (down one point since May), however his disapproval rating has risen to 44% (up five points since May).  This gives a positive net approval of +6 (down six points since May).
Bill Shorten’s approval rating has also remained steady, at 40% (up one point since May) and his disapproval rating is 53% (up two points since May).  This gives a net approval of -13 (up one point since May).
Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister at 51% (down one point since May), while 33% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (up one point since May).

Leader attributes

The tables below show the attribute scores for Turnbull and Shorten, and trends since February 2015.

Of the eleven attributes, Malcolm Turnbull leads on eight (those figures emboldened in the table below).  In contrast, Mr Shorten leads on only three attributes.

 

Turnbull

Shorten

% saying attribute applies

 

 

Competent

67

53

Has a firm grasp of economic policy

67

48

Has a firm grasp of foreign policy

64

45

Open to ideas

61

60

Has the confidence of his party

55

65

Has the ability to make things happen

54

40

Has a clear vision for Australia’s future

52

44

Strong leader

49

41

Trustworthy

48

39

Has a firm grasp of social policy

44

59

Is easily influenced by minority groups

38

49

Mr Turnbull’s ratings reflect the Australian public’s preference for him as the Prime Minister, rather than Mr Shorten.  The public are more likely than in 2016 to see Mr Turnbull as having ‘the ability to make things happen’ (up 5 points), having ‘the confidence of his party’ (up 5 points), and having ‘a firm grasp of foreign policy’ (up 3 points).  However, he is seen as less ‘competent’ (down 3 points), less ‘trustworthy’ (down 3 points) and the public are more likely to say he ‘is easily influenced by minority groups’ (up 4 points).

MR TURNBULL - TRENDS

 

 

 

 

 

% saying attribute applies

Feb 2015

Oct 2015

April 2016

June 2018

Change

Competent

74

83

70

67

-3

Has a firm grasp of economic policy

70

80

66

67

+1

Has a firm grasp of foreign policy

-

65

61

64

+3

Open to ideas

69

75

63

61

-2

Has the confidence of his party

52

67

50

55

+5

Has the ability to make things happen

56

74

49

54

+5

Has a clear vision for Australia’s future

58

70

51

52

+1

Strong leader

60

75

55

49

-6

Trustworthy

55

58

51

48

-3

Has a firm grasp of social policy

64

60

47

44

-3

Is easily influenced by minority groups

23

27

34

38

+4

While his attribute ratings still lag behind those of Mr Turnbull, Mr Shorten is rated more highly on all eleven ratings than he was in April 2016 (when this question was last asked). In particular, he is now ten points more likely to be seen as a ‘strong leader’, having ‘a clear vision for Australia’s future’ and having ‘a firm grasp of economic policy’ – all fundamental attributes for an aspiring Prime Ministerial candidate.

MR SHORTEN - TRENDS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% saying attribute applies

July
2014

Nov

2014

July
2015

Oct
2015

April 2016

June 2018

Change

Has the confidence of his party

63

71

56

58

58

65

+7

Open to ideas

58

68

68

58

59

60

+1

Has a firm grasp of social policy

58

62

59

55

54

59

+5

Competent

57

58

52

51

49

53

+4

Is easily influenced by minority groups

42

44

46

51

50

49

-1

Has a firm grasp of economic policy

45

43

43

39

38

48

+10

Has a firm grasp of foreign policy

38

42

39

36

36

45

+9

Has a clear vision for Australia’s future

38

43

36

37

34

44

+10

Strong leader

40

43

34

30

31

41

+10

Has the ability to make things happen

36

36

35

33

32

40

+8

Trustworthy

45

44

39

36

36

39

+3

 

Poll Profile    

Fieldwork dates:           20-23 June 2018

Sample size:                 1,200 respondents

Sample:                        National, aged 18+, 50% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.

Method:                         Telephone, using random digit dialling.

Statistical reliability:      ±2.9% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample

Analysis:                       The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.