Global study explores how wrong people are about the causes of death in their country

Ipsos’ latest Perils of Perception study highlights public perceptions across 32 markets about the proportion of people who die from diseases, violence, transport injuries and other causes. While patterns differ in different markets, on average people tend to underestimate how many deaths are caused by cancers and cardiovascular diseases, and overestimate how many are caused by transport injuries, substance misuse and violence.

How Accurate are Filipinos vs. the World?

Filipinos are most accurate about cancer as a cause of death but overestimate how people die in the Philippines due to accidents, substance disorders, and terrorism, and severely underestimate deaths from cardiovascular diseases.

Diseases and infections

• Cancer:Most markets underestimate the proportion of people who die from cancer each year. On average people think 15% of deaths each year are a result of cancer when the actual figure is 24%. But this is not the case for the Philippines, as respondents accurately estimate that cancers cause 12% of deaths in the Philippines each year.
• Cardiovascular diseases:The leading cause of death globally according to the IHME Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (IHME) are cardiovascular diseases. Most markets in the study underestimate the percentage of people who die from cardiovascular diseases each year. The average guess across all markets was 11% when the actual figure is almost three times that at 32%. The pattern holds for the Philippines, where 33% of deaths each year are a result of cardiovascular diseases although people think that the figure is at only around 12%.
• Neurological Disorders such as dementia or Parkinson’s disease: Deaths resulting from neurological disorders such as dementia or Parkinson’s disease are also underestimated in many markets. The average guess across all 32 markets is 5% when the actual figure is 9%. People are particularly likely to underestimate this in Japan with an average guess of 5% compared with the actual figure of 16%. For the Philippines, we overestimate this by 1%-point, as actual percentage of deaths as a result of neurological disorders in the Philippines every year is at 3%.
• HIV/AIDS or sexually transmitted infections (STIs): Nearly every market overestimates the proportion of deaths resulting from HIV/AIDS or sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including the Philippines. The average guess of Filipinos is 8% (5% globally) when the figure is 1%.

Conflict, terrorism and violence

• Interpersonal Violence such as homicide/murder: Every market overestimates the proportion of people who die through interpersonal violence each year. The average ‘actual’ figure across all markets is just 1% when the average guess is 8%. People in the Americas are particularly likely to overestimate the proportion of people dying from interpersonal violence. In the Philippines, 2% of deaths are a result of interpersonal violence each year vs. the average guess of 7%.
• Terrorism and conflict:People tend to overestimate the number of deaths caused by terrorism and conflict. The average across all markets is just 0.1% when the average guess is 5%. Terrorism and conflict account for a very small amount of deaths (0.2%) in the Philippines each year, but the average guess is 8.3%.

Suicide

• Suicide: In every market, people overestimate the number of people who die by suicide. The average proportion of deaths by suicide for markets included in the study is 1.6% compared with an average guess of 7.3%. In Japan, the average guess is 10.9% when the figure is 2.1%. Around 1% of deaths are a result of suicide in the Philippines each year, but the figure is overestimated to an average guess of 6%.

Substance use disorders

• Substance use disorders such as drugs or alcohol addiction: The proportion of deaths resulting from drug or alcohol addiction is overestimated in all markets. On average, people think this accounts for 8% of all deaths when it is 0.7%. The average answer in the Philippines was 9.1% but deaths as a result of substance disorders only account for 0.3% in the market each year.

Tranport injuries

• Transport injuries such as road accidents: Transport injuries are overestimated in almost every market. The average guess is 10% when the actual figure is much lower (2%). As for Filipinos, the average answer was 10%, when deaths caused by transport injuries only account for 2% of total deaths annually.

How our Perceptions are Shaped

As part of the study, participants were also asked questions about things that could influence their guesses including what they saw most in the news, what they felt they had least control over, and what they thought would be the most unpleasant way to die.

What We See in the News

Almost certainly, the news we consume influence what we attribute as the different causes of how we die. Globally, people say they most frequently see in the news transport injuries (38%), interpersonal violence (37%) and terrorism/conflict (35%) as cause of deaths. The influence of news reports is seen as these frequently seen causes of death ranked highly.

In the study, Filipinos mentioned seeing interpersonal violence (52%) and transport injuries (40%) as causes of death in the news, and this appears to impact estimated percentages for both as causes of death.

Filipinos get their news mostly from television (28%), online/internet (27%), and social media such as Twitter and Facebook (24%) – followed by mobile news apps (8%), radio (6%), print media (6%).

What Affects Filipinos the Most

On average, people globally are most likely to have been personally affected by cancer (70%), cardiovascular diseases (60%) and diabetes or kidney diseases (58%). In the case of Filipinos, cardiovascular diseases (75%) and diabetes or kidney diseases (75%) have personally affected them followed by cancer (61%) and lower respiratory infections such as pneumonia or tuberculosis (55%).

Globally, we feel we have least control on the following, as causes of death: being a victim of a terrorist attack (32%), getting cancer (31%) or suffering a transport injury (30%). Filipinos feel they have the least control over potential transport injuries (35%) or getting cancer (33%), and interestingly, interpersonal violence (25%).

When asked what the most unpleasant way to die would be, people are most likely to say cancer (40%), followed by injury from an accident (27%), terrorism (26%). As for perceptions of the Filipinos, they also see cancer (38%) as the most unpleasant way to die, followed by accidents or transport injuries (36%) and HIV/AIDS (27%).

For 2020 Perils of Perception, Turkey is the ‘least accurate’ in their perceptions. They are closely followed by Romania and Spain. Brazilians are the most accurate, followed by South Korea and the Netherlands. Among APAC markets, The Philippines (12th) ranked from least accurate in the Ipsos “Misperceptions Index”, more accurate than Australia (11th), Hong Kong SAR China (9th), Malaysia(7th), China (5th), and Singapore (4th).

A spokesperson for Ipsos said:

“Our latest Ipsos Perils of Perception study highlights many countries are very wrong when estimating the main causes of death in their country.

Across all 32 countries in the study people underestimate how many people die each year from the biggest killers such as cancers and cardiovascular diseases. But the public in many countries also overestimate the scale of other causes of death such as those resulting from murder, transport injuries, suicide or substance abuse.

We know there are lots of factors which can influence perceptions so this year we also explored issues such as what people see most in the news, what they have been personally affected by and what they felt they had least control over. In some cases, we can see these appearing to have an influence - for example, in some countries seeing more stories about them in the news does seem to be related to higher guesses around issues like transport injuries and interpersonal violence, even while people may have a better idea of what is actually likely to happen to them. The picture at an individual level is more complex and highlights how challenging it is to reduce to a single factor the influences on our perceptions of the world around us.

Death might not be a topic many of us want to talk about, but our misperceptions around it have clear public health and policy implications – and a more sophisticated understanding of these perceptions will enable a better conversation with the public about it.”

These are the findings of the Ipsos Perils of Perception Survey 2020. 16,000 interviews were conducted between 22 November and 6 December 2019.

The survey is conducted in 32 countries around the world, via the Ipsos Online Panel system in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, SAR China, Colombia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hong Kong, SAR, China, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the USA.