Navigating the 'Fractured Power' World: How our Foresight Became today’s Reality

We live in a world of 'polycrisis'—a volatile mix of geopolitical instability, profound social polarisation, economic fragility, and a technological arms race in AI that is rewriting the rules of entire industries. For business leaders, strategy has never felt more like firefighting.

What if this reality wasn't a surprise? What if it was, in large part, a future we had anticipated?

In early 2021—based on work begun in 2020, as the world was truly coming to terms with the term 'COVID-19'— we published a report called "Shaping 2025 & Beyond." It laid out four distinct, plausible scenarios for the world of 2025:

• Familiar Power: A gradual return to pre-pandemic normality, where the world looks much like 2019 but with growing "fractures under the surface."
• Transforming Power: A world where climate urgency, ageing populations, and automation drive a systemic shift toward "Capitalism 2.0" and circular economies.
• Local Power: A shift toward protectionist communities, where resilient local supply chains and regional focus become the priority over global connectivity.
• Fractured Power: A world of increasingly fragile states, intense nation-state competition, and a technological “‘wild west’ with unregulated innovation” creating deep instability.
   

From Speculation to Reality

Looking back from our current vantage point, Fractured Power is the scenario that has come through most strongly. What once felt like a divergent, more extreme pathway now reads less like a speculative scenario and more like a report on our present moment.

It is important to note that back in 2021, we expected Familiar Power to be the most likely outcome, but noted that “the future will not be linear and minor trends could accelerate, bend or shift to create a less familiar world.” – which is exactly what happened. This explains the power of scenario planning to provide a range of plausible alternative futures that can be monitored over time, so that strategic planning can adapt.

The 2025 We Anticipated:

The "Fractured Power" scenario described a world of "increasingly fragile states" creating "instability and fragmentation." This resonates strongly today across three key pillars:

Political and Economic Fragmentation

• What we anticipated: Economic slowdown and ecosystem collapse would fuel political conflict rather than cooperation. We wrote: "The Eurozone is fragile... while the US is looking inwards and pursuing trade wars... Armed conflicts are brewing across the world. Russia, for example, has continued to invest in advanced weaponry for drone-based fighting."
• Today’s reality: These dynamics are evident in current geopolitical tensions, active conflicts, the rhetoric of 'de-risking,' and deepening political polarisation within major economies.

Economic Polarisation

• What we anticipated: Automation and economic shocks would redefine the middle class, creating a consumer market split between low-cost essentials and premium services.
• Today's reality: This K-shaped economy has materialised, creating strategic challenges for brand portfolios pressured from both value and premium segments.

Technology and Power Dynamics

• What we anticipated: A “technological "wild west" with unregulated innovation,” intense nation-state competition in AI and quantum computing, and tech leaders—described as "benevolent authoritarians"—filling governance vacuums.
• Today’s reality: The global AI race and the expanding geopolitical influence of private technology platforms have become deeply entwined with governmental power. 

The Power of the Broader Toolkit: Why All Four Scenarios Matter

While "Fractured Power" offers a compelling lens for current realities, the strategic value of foresight lies in monitoring signals from all four scenarios. Each contains elements visible today:

• Familiar Power: While the "normal" we envisioned never fully recovered due to inflation, we correctly identified AI as the dominant driver that would reshape commercial systems. We foresaw "assisted-shopping software" and AI ethics debates, though the speed of generative AI far exceeded our "steady growth" projection.
• Transforming Power: We projected a "Capitalism 2.0." In reality, we have seen a corporate pullback. Data from BlackRock [1] shows support for environmental and social shareholder proposals fell from 40% in 2021 to less than 2% in 2025, as ESG commitments are scaled back for traditional financial calculus.
• Local Power: We accurately saw remote workers strengthening local economies and governments implementing protective industrial policies. However, we misjudged travel resilience; UN Tourism [2] reports international arrivals recovered to 99% of pre-pandemic levels by late 2024.

This Isn't Magic. It's a Method.

Our foresight process is a disciplined methodology designed to make strategy ready for the real world of today and tomorrow.

1. Horizon Scanning: We begin with a horizon scan of drivers of change, examining politics, the economy, industrial and regulatory change, civil society, citizen and consumer values and behaviours, and the role of new technology.
2. Signals from Noise: We combine macro-analysis with ground-level observations from the 90 markets where Ipsos operates, identifying emerging behaviours and innovations.
3. People-Centric Shifts: We map these drivers against our deep data on human values—tracked globally since 2013—to identify the critical uncertainties that will define the future. In 2021, we identified two key axes: economic recovery patterns and tensions in demographic, social and political values.
4. Scenario Building: We plot these uncertainties on axes to create a matrix of distinct, plausible, and challenging future worlds. These are not predictions, but strategic provocations.
5. The Funnel of the Future: The scenarios are the beginning. We use them as a toolkit to pressure-test strategy, asking questions such as: How does your innovation pipeline perform in each of these worlds? Where are your critical vulnerabilities and hidden opportunities? 

From Foresight to Action: Being Prepared for What's Next

The ultimate question shifts from "What will happen?" to "How do we become prepared for anything?" A robust foresight lens provides the framework to answer the business-critical questions faced, such as:

• How should we prepare for future scenarios? By having already anticipated them. This moves you from a reactive posture to a proactive one, building resilience and identifying opportunities others may miss.
• What should our market entry strategy be? Foresight helps you identify resilient regions while navigating complex risks, and to prepare for different regulatory and collaborative environments.
• How do we craft a compelling brand vision? In different future worlds, the value of your brand will differ. Our understanding of shifting human values across scenarios helps you position to win.
• Where should we focus innovation? Foresight identifies future growth spaces, and threats that could be turned into opportunities.

For the fourth-year running, Ipsos Strategy3 has been recognised by Forbes as one of the world's best management consulting firms. We operate at the intersection of market, brand, and innovation strategy, grounded in a unique understanding of people and guided by a foresight lens.

We transform insights and foresight into actionable strategies that drive real business outcomes. Volatility isn't going away. The 'polycrisis' is the new normal. Your strategy may have been built for the world of yesterday, but with the right tools—with a prepared mind and a rehearsed plan—it can be ready to navigate and shape the world of tomorrow.

It's not about being right but being prepared.