Canada - A young country’s growing pains
Canada’s economy, demography, and its own perspective on the future are changing. A country built on natural resources and largely by immigrants from Western Europe is coming to terms with its past and its future and the transition doesn't always feel like it's going well.
Citizen and consumer sentiment was negative long before rising inflation; the Ipsos Disruption Barometer measures citizen/consumer confidence and was in negative territory before the pandemic (December 2019 at -3%). While there was a short-lived rebound toward the end of 2020, uneven economic recovery coupled with the rising cost of living in 2022 has pushed overall sentiment to -21% as of November 2022. Social cohesion has declined and recently higher interest rates are amplifying worries about the cost of living. All of which are driving deep divisions and new alignments that will shape Canada going forward while challenging brands and Governments along the way.
A country built on natural resources and largely by immigrants from Western Europe is coming to terms with its past and its future
Three events of the past year help explain how Canada is changing.
January 2022 - Protests shut down Canada’s capital and several border crossings for three weeks
On the surface the protests were about pandemic restrictions (mandatory masks, limits placed on travel/business), but they said more about the overall state of mind of Canadians. Rising inflation was amplifying already low sentiment. Dissatisfaction with the Canadian Government’s push to move away from traditional industries and the fear of being economically left behind bubbled over into anger and resentment. There has been a rise in the popularity of right-of-centre populists. Brands are being challenged to manage inflation while delivering on ESG promises in a country debating the best path to sustainability.
March 2022 - After a 36-year absence, a hockey nation qualifies for the men’s World Cup of Football
High levels of immigration are re-shaping Canada. Cumulatively, every three years the number of new immigrants almost equals Canada’s 4th largest city. Canada today is not the Canada of our founding Indigenous, French, and English cultures. While the world population starts to decline, Canada continues to grow as a result of immigration, mostly from Pacific nations. Today, 50% of Toronto residents were born outside of Canada. Football has replaced hockey as our most representative sport. While increased immigration is having an impact on housing prices and challenging our social services, Canadians remain steadfast in their support for diversity. High levels of immigration have been maintained without the disruptions associated with mass migration elsewhere. Brands must understand how Canada is changing to innovate new offers and must ensure their marketing and their employees reflect the rapidly changing face of Canada.
July 2022 - Pope Francis visits Canada and apologizes for the Church’s role in the residential indigenous school system
Before 2022, the discovery of unmarked graves of indigenous children at the sites of former residential schools served as a reminder to Canadians that much needs to be done to achieve reconciliation with indigenous peoples. Canadians don’t want to repeat the past. They expect fairness and equality for today’s minorities, be they LGBQT or from a different part of the world. Understanding these expectations and living up to them will be particularly challenging but also rewarding for those organizations, brands and governments that are successful.
Cynthia Pachovski
Mike Colledge