Fallout From Gomery Commission Continues To Ravage Federal Liberals

Toronto, ON - In the wake of the lifting of a publication ban on Montreal advertising executive Jean Brault's testimony to the Gomery Commission, a new Ipsos-Reid survey conducted for CTV/The Globe and Mail shows the Liberal Party decided vote falling to its lowest level since March of 1989 when it was at 29%. According to the survey, conducted over April 8th to April 10th, 2005, among 1000 Canadians, if a Federal election were held tomorrow the Federal Liberals would garner 27% of the decided vote - representing a sharp drop of 10 points over the past two months from the 37% registered in a February 15th-17th survey. Meanwhile the Conservative Party has experienced a 4-point gain over this time frame, and now sits at 30% of the decided vote. The NDP attracts one in five (19%) decided votes.

In the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds 48% of the decided vote, and has a 30-point lead over the Liberals (18%).

It would appear that the recent revelations of the Gomery Commission have strongly resonated with the Canadian public: Forty-five percent agree that because of the revelations of the Gomery Commission, the Martin Liberals have lost their moral right to govern and the opposition should force an immediate election - 26% agree strongly with this notion, compared with a slim majority (52%) who disagree. Furthermore, two-thirds (65%) believe that the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another Federal political party to govern the country.

However, while one-quarter of Canadians (26%) feel that the revelations from the Gomery Commission will be the decisive factor in determining how they cast their ballot in the next Federal election, a full 71% feel they will consider this among many other factors when deciding who they will vote for. Overall, nine in ten (87%) agree that there should not be an election called until the Gomery Commission has been allowed to complete its investigation.

On that matter, a slim majority (52%) believe that the sponsorship scandal involves only a small rogue group of corrupt individuals, and not the Liberal Party in general - 25% strongly feel this way. A sizable proportion (44%), though, disagree with this notion (26% strongly). And most Canadians (55%) think Paul Martin's Liberal Party had something to do with the sponsorship scandal and they think they could be doing more to clean up corruption in the Federal government.

But while they may be upset about the scandal, they are split as to who they trust most to be Prime Minister: Forty-eight percent say that regardless of what's being revealed at the Gomery Commission, they are more likely to trust Paul Martin as Prime Minster than Stephen Harper" (46% disagree with this).

Fifty-five percent of Canadians agree they would never consider voting for the Liberal Party in the next election. In comparison, 50% say they would never consider voting for the Conservative Party.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ CTV/The Globe And Mail poll conducted from April 8th to April 10th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data. Please open the attached PDF to view the full factum with vote tracking graphics and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900