Global consumer sentiment still reviving slowly

More countries show gains than losses in economic confidence, but none has recovered to pre-pandemic levels – except China.

At 42.2, the Global Consumer Confidence Index is up slightly over last month (41.8). September is the fourth consecutive month showing gains-in consumer sentiment at the global level after bottoming out in June. However, the index remains 6.4 points lower than its pre-pandemic level recorded in January and nearly five points lower than its historic average spanning over 10 years.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of each of the 24 world markets’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform.

This month, eight countries show significant growth (1.5 points or more) in their National Index: China (+3.0), Japan (+2.5), Australia (+2.5), Mexico (+2.2), South Africa (+2.1), Brazil (+1.7), Saudi Arabia (+1.7) and the United States (+1.6). Japan and Mexico have shown significant gains in each of the past two months, while Brazil has seen significant growth in the past three.

Argentina (-1.6) and Turkey (-1.7) show significant drops in their National Index this month. This is the third straight month Argentina’s National Index (33.4) has dropped and the lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic. At 31.5, Turkey’s National Index is not the lowest it has been since the beginning of pandemic, but lower than any pre-pandemic year.

National Index Trends

Compared to January, every single country’s National Index is down except for China’s (+4.2). The National Index of four countries (Israel, India, the U.S., and Mexico) is down by over ten points vs. January and that of fifteen other countries is down by between five and ten points.

  • While 11 of the 24 countries surveyed had a National Index higher than 50 back in January, this is now the case of only five countries: China (73.9), Saudi Arabia (59.3), Sweden (52.8), Germany (51.6) and the U.S. (50.8).
  • At the other end of the spectrum, six countries now have a National index at 35 or below, compared to just one (Turkey) in January: South Korea (35.0), Spain (33.7), Israel (33.6), Argentina (33.4), South Africa (31.5) and Turkey (31.5).

Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Index Trends

At a global level, each of the Jobs Index (+0.3), the Expectations Index (+0.2), and the Investment Index (+0.6) shows a small growth over the last month.

  • The Jobs Index, indicative of confidence in job security and the employment outlook (48.0 globally), is showing significant gains in seven countries (compared to five last month, nine in August, six in July, and none in June). It is down significantly in only two countries, continuing a trend (it was down in 14 countries in June, five in July, four in August, and two in September).
  • The Expectations Index, reflective of consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation, and employment (52.8 globally), is up significantly in six countries for the second month.
  • The Investment Index, indicative of the investment climate (36.2 globally) is up significantly in nine countries, including Brazil for the third month in a row. It is down significantly only in Argentina (-2.1), Turkey (-2.1) and Poland (-1.5). For comparison, the Investment Index showed significant drops from May to June in as many as 15 countries.

Visit our interactive portal, Consolidated Economic Indicators for graphic comparisons and trended data pertaining to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices—and all the questions on which they are based.

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.

Consumer & Shopper