Washington, DC, April 19, 2021 — This month’s Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index adds another eight-tenths of a point to its pandemic-high recorded last month. At 45.5, it hovers 3 points below its reading in March 2020, just before the declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of 24 world markets’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between March 26 and April 9, 2021.
This month, 7 of the 24 surveyed markets show significant growth in their National Index when compared to March 2021: Israel (+3.5), United States (+3.3), Great Britain (+3.1), Spain (+2.6), Japan (+2.1), South Korea (+1.5), and Canada (+1.8). Just two markets display a significant drop: Brazil (-2.3) and Turkey (-1.5)
National Index Trends
The Global Consumer Confidence Index reads at 45.5 as more than 800 million people globally have received vaccinations against COVID-19 worldwide. This is a 0.8-point increase from March 2021, marking the sixth straight month of gains. Currently, the index sits just 3 points below its readings in March 2020 (-3.0) and January 2020 (-3.2).
Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Index Trends
For the second month in a row, the Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Indices all display month-on-month gains. Israel, Great Britain, and Spain post gains across each index this month, while Brazil falls in each.
- The global Jobs Index is up 1 point from March 2021, currently reading at 50.9. It falls 5.5 points short of its reading in January 2020. Israel, the United States, and Great Britain display the largest gains in this measure. In fact, over the last two months, the Jobs Index in Israel has increased by 5.2 points. Brazil and Turkey are the only markets to post significant drops since March.
- After gaining 0.6 points from last month, the global Investment Index currently reads at 39.9. The Investment Index now sits 2.5 points behind its January 2020 reading. Significant month-on-month gains are in the United States, Israel, Japan, Great Britain, and Spain. This is the second month in a row of increasing Investment sentiment in the United States and Great Britain. The only significant declines in this measure are Brazil and Poland.
- Revealing consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation, and employment, the Expectations Index sits at 56.2 after a gain of 0.7 point compared to last month. It is nearly on par with its level in January 2020, falling just 0.7 point short. Great Britain, Israel and Spain show significant improvements of 3 points or more from last month. Significant drops since March 2020 are seen in Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil.
Visit our interactive portal, Consolidated Economic Indicators for graphic comparisons and trended data pertaining to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices—and all the questions on which they are based.
These findings are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working-age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, mainland China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. Please click here for more information.
The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.
The results reported each month in the Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.