Albertans Speak Out On The Canadian Alliance

Calgary, Alberta -- The results of a recent Angus Reid/CFCN province-wide survey show that six-in-ten Albertans (63%) believe that creation of the new "Unite-the-Right" Canadian Alliance Party is a good idea right now. In terms of prospective leadership of CA, Preston Manning holds a notable edge over Stockwell Day in terms of profile, but gathers mixed reviews in terms of personal appeal. Fully 98 percent of voting-aged Albertans feel they know enough about Preston Manning to rate him personally, compared to only 83 percent for Stockwell Day. However, comparing favorability ratings between the two top leadership contenders reveals that Mr. Manning's profile may, in fact, be more of a burden than as asset. Just over one-half (54%) of those interviewed say they would approve of Mr. Manning as leader as the new Canadian Alliance Party compared to 51 percent who favour the provincial treasurer. However, Manning's personal "negatives" are decidedly higher than Day's - 39 percent disapprove of Manning compared to 27 percent Stockwell Day. Results from a mock ballot exercise demonstrate that either man would be equally effective at gathering the vote for the Canadian Alliance cause (roughly 45% of the decided vote in our mock ballot exercise), however each draws from a slightly different base of voters and each falls short of Reform's vote share in 1997 (55% in Alberta).

Six in ten (63%) Albertans Favor Creation of Canadian Alliance Party

Our February survey shows a majority of Albertans (63%) believe that creating the Canadian Alliance Party is either a very good (25%) or fairly good (38%) idea right now. Meanwhile, just over one-quarter (26%) maintain creating the Canadian Alliance Party is either a fairly (15%) or very (11%) bad idea. (SEE TABLE 1)

• The current move to create CA is less popular in Edmonton and Southern Alberta than other parts of the province.
• Those planning a vote for Reform in the next election are most enthused about the idea forming the Canadian Alliance Party, while Liberal voters are least supportive of the concept (although even here, nearly one-half support the concept, even though they probably won't support the party).

Prospective Leaders of the Canadian Alliance

Depending upon the outcome of the Reform Party member referendum on the Canadian Alliance, the next major political event in Canada will be the selection of a party leader. At present, the "soon-to-be former leader of the Reform Party", Preston Manning, enjoys an edge over provincial treasurer Stockwell Day in terms of "profile" in Alberta, however, his personal favourability ratings reveal that he also carries more negative "political baggage" than Day.

Fully 98 percent of those interviewed in February know enough about Preston Manning to rate him on this question, compared to 83 percent who know enough about Stockwell Day to rate him one way or the other. Overall approval for Day and Manning is comparable (54% approve Mr. Manning as Canadian Alliance leader versus 51% approval for Stockwell Day). At the same time, however, negativity towards Manning is considerably higher than negativity towards Stockwell Day - 39 percent say they would disapprove of Preston Manning as Canadian Alliance Party leader compared to 27 percent who would disapprove of Stockwell Day. (SEE TABLE 2)

• Manning is most popular in the south, where Day is more than "unknown commodity" than elsewhere.
• Manning is more popular with those currently planning to vote Reform than Stockwell Day, but also registers disproportionately large "negative" among voters currently favouring other parties.

To view the complete media release please download the PDF file.

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900