BC Conservatives: From Fractured to Front Runners

Vancouver, BC October 13, 2026 – Just one month ago the BC Conservatives were in disarray, losing MLAs on a weekly basis and trailing the BC NDP by 10-points in Ipsos polling. Today, a new Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC, shows the BC Conservatives with a 5-point lead over the BC NDP just ahead of this week’s Leaders’ Debate.

Voter Support

The BC Conservatives now have the support of 43% (up 1) of decided voters, which puts them 5-points ahead of the BC NDP at 38% (down 2). The BC Greens are next best at 11% (up 1), followed by OneBC at 4% (up 1), CentreBC at 2% (down 1) and other parties at 2% (unchanged). These results exclude the 25% (down 2) of British Columbians who are undecided (18%, down 5) or express no preference (7%, up 3).

Age Breaks: The BC Conservatives lead by 14-points among 35-54 year olds (CONS 48% vs. NDP 34%). The two main parties are effectively tied among 18-34 years olds (CONS 40% vs. NDP 36%) and among those 55 years and older (NDP 43% vs. CONS 41%). 

Gender Breaks: The gender gap is back. The Conservative lead by 18-points among men (49% CONS vs. 31% NDP), while the NDP lead by 9-points among women (NDP 45% vs. CONS 36%).

Region Breaks: The horserace remains very close in seat rich Metro Vancouver with the BC Conservatives leading by 3-points (42% CONS vs. 39% NDP). The NDP has a substantial 20-point lead on Vancouver Island (47% NDP vs. 27% CONS), while the Conservatives have a 21-point lead in the Southern Interior/North (53% CONS vs. 32% NDP).

Voter Certainty

Nearly one-in-four (23%) voters with a current party preference say there is still a good chance they will change their mind and vote for some other party's candidate in this election. Voter certainty is about equal for the NDP (19% might change) and BC Conservatives (20%). Green Party support is much less secure with nearly four-in-ten (37%) saying there is still a good chance they will change their mind and vote for some other party's candidate in this election.

Deserve Re-Election vs. Time for Change

Time for change has nudged up slightly compared to the start of the campaign. Half (50%) of residents believe it is time for another provincial party to take over, an increase of 3 percentage points. Three-in-ten (31%, unchanged) residents continue to say that the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Two-in-ten (19%, down 3) are undecided.

Views of Political Figures

David Eby: Impressions of David Eby continue to be about equally favourable (35%, down 2) as unfavourable (38%, up 1). Two-in-ten (21%, unchanged) residents have a neutral impression of Eby, while only 5% (unchanged) have not heard of him.

Lorne Doerkson: More BC residents (50%, up 11) now have an impression of BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson. Like Eby, his impressions are about equally favourable (26%, up 6) as unfavourable (24%, up 5). Two-in-ten (20%, down 9) have not heard of Doerkson and 30% (down 2) have a neutral impression.

Dallas Brodie: About four-in-ten residents (42%, up 7) have an impression of OneBC leader Dallas Brodie, including 13% (up 1) favourable impressions and 29% (up 6) unfavourable impressions. One-quarter (25%, down 5) of residents have not heard of Brodie and 33% (down 2) have a neutral impression.

Emily Lowan: Approaching four-in-ten (36%, up 5) residents have an impression of BC Green leader Emily Lowan, including 18% (up 3) favourable impressions and 18% (up 2) unfavourable impressions. Three-in-ten (28%, down 5) have not heard of Lowan and 36% (unchanged) have a neutral impression.

Elenore Sturko: Approaching four-in-ten (36%, up 5) residents have an impression of CentreBC leader Elenore Sturko, including 14% (up 1) favourable impressions and 22% (up 4) unfavourable impressions. Three-in-ten (31%, down 3) have not heard of Sturko and 34% (unchanged) have a neutral impression.

Best Premier

David Eby (30%, down 3) continues to lead Lorne Doerksen (19%, up 2) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier, but the gap has fallen from 17-points down to 11-points. Far back are Emily Lowan (7%, up 1), Dallas Brodie (5%, down 1) and Elenore Sturko (4%, unchanged). More than one-third (35%, down 1) of British Columbians are still undecided.

Top Issues

There continue to be three dominant issues for voters in British Columbia – cost of living/inflation (57%, up 1), health care (39%, unchanged) and housing affordability and availability (30%, down 1). 

•    Top issues for current BC NDP supporters include cost of living/inflation (56%, down 6%), health care (50%, up 2), housing affordability and availability (37%, up 3), and US trade and tariff issues (22%, down 2).
•    Top issues for current BC Conservative supporters include cost of living/inflation (62%, up 3), health care (35%, up 4), jobs and the economy (29%, up 3), taxes (28%, down 2), crime and public safety (28%, up 5), and housing affordability and availability (25%, down 4). 
•    Top issues for current BC Green supporters include cost of living/inflation (50%, down 8), health care (34%, unchanged), climate change and the environment (33%, down 3), housing affordability and availability (23%, down 14 points), and social issues like poverty and homelessness (22%, up 1).
•    Top issues for undecided voters include cost of living/inflation (60%, up 13), health care (41%, down 3), housing affordability and availability (30%, up 1) and jobs and the economy (22%, up 4).

The full list of issues British Columbians would most like to see provincial leaders address is listed below. Survey respondents could select up to three issues.

About the Study

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC from October 7 to 11, 2026. For this survey, a sample of 1,356 adult British Columbians were surveyed both online through sample sourced through the Ipsos panel (n=1,001) and by phone with live interviewers (n=350) using both cellphones and landlines. Data was weighted by BC region, age, gender and education, in accordance with Census proportions. The precision of Ipsos polls including online samples is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Questions asked only of online respondents are accurate to within ±3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
SVP, Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 604 788-2417
[email protected]

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