BC FEDERAL POLITICAL SCENE

Alliance Support In BC (20%) Continues To Fall (Down 6 Points Since June); Federal Liberals Improve Standing (43% - Up 4); PCs At 17%, NDP At 11% Two-Thirds Of British Columbians (65%) Disapprove Of Job Alliance Is Doing In Opposition; Majority (57%) Approves Of Liberal Government's Performance 18% Of BC Public Approve Of Stockwell Day (Down 6 Points Since June); Give Favourable Reviews To Clark (68% Up 6), Chrйtien (55% - Up 2), McDonough (47% - Up 4)

Vancouver, BC--In this fall's BC Reid Express poll on the federal political scene in British Columbia, Ipsos-Reid finds a continued Liberal resurgence in the province, driven by the dramatic collapse in support for the Canadian Alliance over the past year. British Columbians are growing increasingly weary of the Alliance's performance in Ottawa, and are particularly critical of its leader, Stockwell Day, whose approval ratings have plummeted since the spring. To contrast, the BC public has embraced PC leader Joe Clark more than other party leaders, and people in the province have warmed up to Jean Chrйtien, with a majority approving of the job he's doing as Prime Minister. "It's quite clear that internal party strife afflicting the Canadian Alliance has raised serious doubts among British Columbians about the party's ability to perform its job adequately in Ottawa," comments Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President with Ipsos-Reid in Vancouver. "This has given a bump in support to the Liberals and the PCs. However, it's not yet clear if they'll be able to sustain their momentum with the BC electorate as the Alliance leadership drama unfolds. In the past, the Liberals have always improved their standing with the fickle BC federal voter between elections, only to lose out on election day. Current events provide both the Liberals and the PC party with an opportunity to make more permanent inroads into Alliance support."

Alliance Support In BC (20%) Continues To Fall (Down 6 Points Since June); Federal Liberals Improve Standing (43% - Up 4); PCs At 17%, NDP At 11%

Currently, 43% of BC's decided and leaning voters say they would support the federal Liberal party if a federal election were held in BC. This puts the Liberals 23 points ahead of the Canadian Alliance party, which obtains 20% of support among the BC population. Meanwhile, 17% of British Columbians are behind the Progressive Conservative party, 11% support the NDP, and 7% are with the Green party; 2% are currently supporting Other parties.

Support for the federal Liberals in BC has jumped a statistically significant 4 points since June of this year (39% to 43%), and a full 10 points since the beginning of the year (March - 33%). Meanwhile, the Canadian Alliance has suffered a 6-point drop in popularity among the BC public over the past 3 months (26% to 20%), and a dramatic 21-point fall since March.

The Progressive Conservative party continues to benefit from Alliance misfortunes, improving its standing in BC by another 2 points in the past 3 months (15% to 17%, and 7 points since March).

The federal NDP gathers the same level of support as June of this year (11%). Meanwhile, support for the Green party has slipped a marginal 2 points during the same time period (9% to 7%).

Party support among the different regions and population groups is as follows:

  • Liberal support is strongest in the suburban Lower Mainland communities (51%) and weakest on Vancouver Island (33%), where its main competitor is the PC party (26%). In the Interior/North, Liberals hold the lead with 39% of popular support, but are closely followed by the Alliance (33%).

  • Canadian Alliance support is strongest in the Interior/North (33%), and weakest in Vancouver/Burnaby (12%) and on Vancouver Island (12%).

  • Support for the Progressive Conservative party is stronger on Vancouver Island (26%), and in Vancouver/Burnaby (21%), while NDP support is highest on Vancouver Island (17%).

Two-Thirds Of British Columbians (65%) Disapprove Of Job Alliance Is Doing In Opposition; Majority (57%) Approves Of Liberal Government's Performance

British Columbians give positive reviews to the governing Liberals for the job they are doing governing the country. Fully 57% of those surveyed say they approve of the Liberals. This is down a statistically insignificant 2 points from June of this year. Meanwhile, the number of people in the province who disapprove of federal Liberal performance is at 41%, a 2-point increase over the past 3 months.

For the Opposition Canadian Alliance, the story continues to be much less positive. The BC public is much more critical than complimentary when it comes to the job they are doing as the Official Opposition in Ottawa. While 30% approve of their performance, fully 65% disapprove. This represents a worsening of the situation from June of this year when 38% approved of the Alliance's performance, and 57% disapproved.

18% Of BC Public Approve Of Stockwell Day (Down 6 Points Since June); Give Favourable Reviews To Clark (68% Up 6), Chrйtien (55% - Up 2), McDonough (47% - Up 4)

Less than one-in-five British Columbians (just 18%) approves of the job Stockwell Day is doing as Leader of the Official Opposition in Ottawa. To contrast, Joe Clark continues to receive the approval of the largest proportion of British Columbians; fully 68% give Clark kudos for the job he's doing as PC leader. This puts him 13 points ahead of Primer Minister Jean Chrйtien (55%), 21 points in front of federal NDP leader, Alexa McDonough (47%), and 50 points ahead of Day.

Since June of this year, Clark's approval ratings have moved up a statistically significant 6 percentage points (62% to 68%), while approval of Chrйtien has gone up 2 points (53% to 55%), and McDonough enjoys a 4-point jump (43% to 47%. However, Stockwell Day's star continues to fall, dropping another 6 points over the past 3 months (24% to 18%), and a full 24 points since March 2001.

To contrast, the vast majority of British Columbians (79%) currently disapprove of the job Stockwell Day is doing as Leader of the Official Opposition in Ottawa. Fewer feel negatively towards Jean Chrйtien (44% disapprove, down 1 point from June), Alexa McDonough (39%, down 5 points), and Joe Clark (26%, down 3 points).

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas Senior Vice-President Ipsos-Reid (604) 893-1610 (office)

Visit our website at www.ipsos-reid.com

News Releases are available at www.ipsos-reid.com/media/content/PRE_REL.cfm Established in 1979, Ipsos-Reid is Canada's leading market research and public opinion company. It is best known for the Angus Reid Express poll, the most widely quoted source of public opinion in the country. Founded by Dr. Angus Reid, Ipsos-Reid has conducted extensive market and social research in 80 countries and in 40 languages, and serves clients around the world through more than 300-professionals and 1,000 data collection staff in 11 offices. The company is a member of the Paris-based Ipsos Group, ranked among the top ten research companies in the world, with specialties in advertising, media, customer satisfaction, public opinion and market research.

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