BC Public Critical Of Current State Of Province, But Optimistic For Future
Majority (53%) Thinks BC is in Worse Shape Than a Year Ago, But Most (50%) Believe We'll Be Better Off in Future Majority of Critics (63%) Blame Liberal Management for Current Woes; Fewer (22%) Blame External Factors Majority Very Critical of State of Health Care and Education in BC; Expect Problems to Persist to End of Liberal Mandate Most Downbeat on BC's Economy and Government Finances, But Expect Improvements in the Future
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll commissioned by the Vancouver Sun and Global TV conducted between May 1st and 8th, 2002 among a representative cross-section of 800 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1996 Census data. With a provincial sample of 800, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within 1773.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.
Majority (53%) Thinks BC is in Worse Shape Than a Year Ago, BUT Most (50%) Believe We'll Be Better Off by End of Liberal Mandate
A majority of British Columbians (53%) believe our province is in overall worse shape than when the BC Liberals took office a year ago; one-in-five (20%) say BC is in better shape. Another 26% feel there has been no change in the state of the province over the past year. Despite their current negative portrait of the province, half the BC population (50%) is optimistic that things will get better over the next three years, while 30% feel things will get worse than they are now; 17% see no change between now and the end of the Liberal mandate.
Criticism of the current state of the province is widespread across BC, but certain population segments are more negative than others. For example, Vancouver Island residents (67%) are more likely to feel the province is in worse shape than when the Liberals took office compared to those living in the Lower Mainland (48%) or in the Interior/North (55%). There also appears to be a significant gender and social gap on this question. While 61% of women think BC is in worse shape, comparatively fewer men (45%) are as critical; 65% of individuals living in lower income households think BC is in worse shape compared to 45% of those in upper income households. Lastly, BC residents living in union households are more negative (64% worse shape) than non-union households (47%) when it comes to how BC is doing a year into the Liberal's mandate.
Optimism for the future is spread across all population segments, but is particularly strong among Lower Mainland (54% better shape) and Interior/North (51%) residents, and lower on Vancouver Island (37%), where more people are pessimistic about the future (40%). While there remains a definite gender gap among the BC population when it comes to the future (Men - 56% better shape vs. Women - 44%), women in the province are still more optimistic than pessimistic (44% better shape vs. 35% worse shape). Residents of upper income households are much more optimistic about the future than those in lower income households (58% better shape vs. 38%). Further, while individuals living in union households are less optimistic about the future than those non-union households (40% better shape vs. 55%), there is greater angst among public sector households in particular (47% worse shape vs. 29% private sector).
From a political perspective, 33% of people who voted for the BC Liberals in last year's election think the province is in worse shape now than when the party took office a year ago; the same number (34%) believe BC is in better shape.
Solid Majority of Critics (63%) Blame Liberal Management for Current Woes; Fewer (22%) Blame External Factors
A solid majority of British Columbians who feel the province is in "worse shape" than when the BC Liberals took office in May 2001, believe that Liberal management of the province is most to blame for current problems. Fully 63% place the blame squarely at the feet of the Liberals, while 22% look beyond Victoria to external events such as the softwood lumber dispute and the US economic downturn. Another 12% say both are at fault.
The overall perception among critics that the BC Liberals are more to blame than external factors is consistent across all areas of BC and among all population segments, with very little variation. In one case, individuals living in public sector union households stand out for the degree to which they are prepared to blame the Liberals - 80% say Liberal management is at fault, compared to 64% of private sector union households, and 54% of non-union households.
Majority Very Critical of State of Health Care, and Education in BC; Expect Problems to Persist to End of Liberal Mandate
A solid majority of British Columbians believe the province's health care and education systems are in "worse shape" today than when the BC Liberals were elected to office a year ago (70% for health care, 61% for education). Relatively few feel there has been progress in these two policy areas (7% "better shape" for each); the rest see no change (22% health care, 29% education).
Looking out three years from now, most people in the province express pessimistic views about the state of health care and education in BC; 48% believe our health care system will be in "worse shape" than it is today, while 44% feel the same way about education. Still, many do predict there will be improvements - 33% see a health care system in better shape, 31% for education.
Views on the state of British Columbia in these two policy areas are similar across all regions and population segments. However, there is a definite and consistent gender gap in perceptions, with women holding a more negative judgement than men of how things are going. For example, when it comes to health care, 75% of BC women believe things are in worse shape today compared to a year ago while 64% of men are as critical. In education, the numbers are equally divergent (women - 68% worse shape vs. men - 55%).
The same pattern of differences exists between British Columbians living in public sector union households and those in non-union households, with the former holding more negative views. This is true in health care (public sector union households - 82% worse shape vs. 64% non-union), and education (74% vs. 56%).
Geographically, one region stands out from the rest when it comes to the state of education in BC - Vancouver Island residents are more critical, and less optimistic about the future than people living elsewhere in the province. While 70% of Island residents consider BC's education system to be in worse shape than a year ago, 59% of Lower Mainland residents are as negative. Three years from now, 56% of Vancouver Island residents expect things will be in worse shape in education, compared to 42% of those living in the Lower Mainland.
From a political perspective, British Columbians who voted Liberal in the 2001 provincial election are almost as critical of the current state of health care and education in BC, though less so than the provincial population as a whole. And, they are, by comparison, more upbeat than others in their expectations for the future. With health care, 60% of Liberal voters feel the system is in "worse shape" today compared to a year ago; 11% say it's in "better shape". In education, the numbers are equally critical (45% worse shape, 13% better shape). Three years from now, 53% of Liberal voters believe health care will be in "better shape" than it is today, 49% share a similar level of optimism about the education system in the province. About three-in-ten are more pessimistic about the future in these two areas (health care - 30% worse shape, education - 27%).
Most Downbeat on BC's Economy and Government Finances, but See Improvements in the Future
With a year gone in the BC Liberal's mandate, most British Columbians see little to cheer about with BC's economy and the state of provincial government finances; 51% believe the economy is in "worse shape", and 32% hold negative views of government finances. By comparison, just 19% think the economy is in better shape, and 30% feel positively about government finances. Three-in-ten believe there has been no change in either area (economy - 28%, government finances - 30%).
When asked about their outlook for the BC economy and government finances three years from now, a majority of British Columbians are optimistic things will improve by the end of the Liberal's mandate. Fifty-four percent think provincial government finances will be in "better shape", and almost as many express similar optimism about the economy (52%). While 20% see government finances worsening in the future, 26% are pessimistic about the provincial economy. One-in-five see no change in either area (economy - 19%, government finances (22%).
Overall perceptions of the provincial economy and government finances are similar across all regions and population segments, though there are some variations of note. When it comes to the economy, women in the province, and people living in union households, tend to be more critical and more pessimistic than men and non-union households. For example, 56% of women think the economy is in worse shape today than a year ago, compared to 45% of men. And, three years from now, 29% of women expect the economy to be in worse shape, compared to 22% of men. Similarly, while 60% of union households are critical of the current state of the provincial economy, comparatively fewer of those in non-union households are as negative (46%). And, the future economic outlook is more pessimistic among union households (36% "worse shape" vs. 21% non-union).
Regionally, once again, one region - Vancouver Island - stands out from the rest for its negative views. On the provincial economy, for example, 65% of residents in this region believe the economy is in worse shape than a year ago, compared to 45% of people living in the Lower Mainland. And, they're more pessimistic about the future; 33% of Island residents think things will be worse three years from now, compared to 23% of Lower Mainland residents.
From a political perspective, Liberal voters are more positive than the BC population as a whole on both the economy and government finances. And, they see a rosier future in these two areas. Overall, 40% think government finances are in "better shape" today than when the Liberals took office a year ago, compared to 22% who believe things are in "worse shape". On the provincial economy, Liberal voters hold more negative views - 29% better shape, 41% worse shape - but are still more positive than the province as a whole (19% and 51%). Three years from now, 70% of BC Liberal voters feel government finances will be in "better shape" than they are today, and a similar number (74%) are optimistic about the provincial economy. In both cases, Liberals are more positive in their outlook than the provincial population as a whole (54% and 52%, respectively).
Majority (53%) Thinks BC is in Worse Shape Than a Year Ago, BUT Most (50%) Believe We'll Be Better Off by End of Liberal Mandate
A majority of British Columbians (53%) believe our province is in overall worse shape than when the BC Liberals took office a year ago; one-in-five (20%) say BC is in better shape. Another 26% feel there has been no change in the state of the province over the past year. Despite their current negative portrait of the province, half the BC population (50%) is optimistic that things will get better over the next three years, while 30% feel things will get worse than they are now; 17% see no change between now and the end of the Liberal mandate.
Criticism of the current state of the province is widespread across BC, but certain population segments are more negative than others. For example, Vancouver Island residents (67%) are more likely to feel the province is in worse shape than when the Liberals took office compared to those living in the Lower Mainland (48%) or in the Interior/North (55%). There also appears to be a significant gender and social gap on this question. While 61% of women think BC is in worse shape, comparatively fewer men (45%) are as critical; 65% of individuals living in lower income households think BC is in worse shape compared to 45% of those in upper income households. Lastly, BC residents living in union households are more negative (64% worse shape) than non-union households (47%) when it comes to how BC is doing a year into the Liberal's mandate.
Optimism for the future is spread across all population segments, but is particularly strong among Lower Mainland (54% better shape) and Interior/North (51%) residents, and lower on Vancouver Island (37%), where more people are pessimistic about the future (40%). While there remains a definite gender gap among the BC population when it comes to the future (Men - 56% better shape vs. Women - 44%), women in the province are still more optimistic than pessimistic (44% better shape vs. 35% worse shape). Residents of upper income households are much more optimistic about the future than those in lower income households (58% better shape vs. 38%). Further, while individuals living in union households are less optimistic about the future than those non-union households (40% better shape vs. 55%), there is greater angst among public sector households in particular (47% worse shape vs. 29% private sector).
From a political perspective, 33% of people who voted for the BC Liberals in last year's election think the province is in worse shape now than when the party took office a year ago; the same number (34%) believe BC is in better shape.
Solid Majority of Critics (63%) Blame Liberal Management for Current Woes; Fewer (22%) Blame External Factors
A solid majority of British Columbians who feel the province is in "worse shape" than when the BC Liberals took office in May 2001, believe that Liberal management of the province is most to blame for current problems. Fully 63% place the blame squarely at the feet of the Liberals, while 22% look beyond Victoria to external events such as the softwood lumber dispute and the US economic downturn. Another 12% say both are at fault.
The overall perception among critics that the BC Liberals are more to blame than external factors is consistent across all areas of BC and among all population segments, with very little variation. In one case, individuals living in public sector union households stand out for the degree to which they are prepared to blame the Liberals - 80% say Liberal management is at fault, compared to 64% of private sector union households, and 54% of non-union households.
Majority Very Critical of State of Health Care, and Education in BC; Expect Problems to Persist to End of Liberal Mandate
A solid majority of British Columbians believe the province's health care and education systems are in "worse shape" today than when the BC Liberals were elected to office a year ago (70% for health care, 61% for education). Relatively few feel there has been progress in these two policy areas (7% "better shape" for each); the rest see no change (22% health care, 29% education).
Looking out three years from now, most people in the province express pessimistic views about the state of health care and education in BC; 48% believe our health care system will be in "worse shape" than it is today, while 44% feel the same way about education. Still, many do predict there will be improvements - 33% see a health care system in better shape, 31% for education.
Views on the state of British Columbia in these two policy areas are similar across all regions and population segments. However, there is a definite and consistent gender gap in perceptions, with women holding a more negative judgement than men of how things are going. For example, when it comes to health care, 75% of BC women believe things are in worse shape today compared to a year ago while 64% of men are as critical. In education, the numbers are equally divergent (women - 68% worse shape vs. men - 55%).
The same pattern of differences exists between British Columbians living in public sector union households and those in non-union households, with the former holding more negative views. This is true in health care (public sector union households - 82% worse shape vs. 64% non-union), and education (74% vs. 56%).
Geographically, one region stands out from the rest when it comes to the state of education in BC - Vancouver Island residents are more critical, and less optimistic about the future than people living elsewhere in the province. While 70% of Island residents consider BC's education system to be in worse shape than a year ago, 59% of Lower Mainland residents are as negative. Three years from now, 56% of Vancouver Island residents expect things will be in worse shape in education, compared to 42% of those living in the Lower Mainland.
From a political perspective, British Columbians who voted Liberal in the 2001 provincial election are almost as critical of the current state of health care and education in BC, though less so than the provincial population as a whole. And, they are, by comparison, more upbeat than others in their expectations for the future. With health care, 60% of Liberal voters feel the system is in "worse shape" today compared to a year ago; 11% say it's in "better shape". In education, the numbers are equally critical (45% worse shape, 13% better shape). Three years from now, 53% of Liberal voters believe health care will be in "better shape" than it is today, 49% share a similar level of optimism about the education system in the province. About three-in-ten are more pessimistic about the future in these two areas (health care - 30% worse shape, education - 27%).
Most Downbeat on BC's Economy and Government Finances, but See Improvements in the Future
With a year gone in the BC Liberal's mandate, most British Columbians see little to cheer about with BC's economy and the state of provincial government finances; 51% believe the economy is in "worse shape", and 32% hold negative views of government finances. By comparison, just 19% think the economy is in better shape, and 30% feel positively about government finances. Three-in-ten believe there has been no change in either area (economy - 28%, government finances - 30%).
When asked about their outlook for the BC economy and government finances three years from now, a majority of British Columbians are optimistic things will improve by the end of the Liberal's mandate. Fifty-four percent think provincial government finances will be in "better shape", and almost as many express similar optimism about the economy (52%). While 20% see government finances worsening in the future, 26% are pessimistic about the provincial economy. One-in-five see no change in either area (economy - 19%, government finances (22%).
Overall perceptions of the provincial economy and government finances are similar across all regions and population segments, though there are some variations of note. When it comes to the economy, women in the province, and people living in union households, tend to be more critical and more pessimistic than men and non-union households. For example, 56% of women think the economy is in worse shape today than a year ago, compared to 45% of men. And, three years from now, 29% of women expect the economy to be in worse shape, compared to 22% of men. Similarly, while 60% of union households are critical of the current state of the provincial economy, comparatively fewer of those in non-union households are as negative (46%). And, the future economic outlook is more pessimistic among union households (36% "worse shape" vs. 21% non-union).
Regionally, once again, one region - Vancouver Island - stands out from the rest for its negative views. On the provincial economy, for example, 65% of residents in this region believe the economy is in worse shape than a year ago, compared to 45% of people living in the Lower Mainland. And, they're more pessimistic about the future; 33% of Island residents think things will be worse three years from now, compared to 23% of Lower Mainland residents.
From a political perspective, Liberal voters are more positive than the BC population as a whole on both the economy and government finances. And, they see a rosier future in these two areas. Overall, 40% think government finances are in "better shape" today than when the Liberals took office a year ago, compared to 22% who believe things are in "worse shape". On the provincial economy, Liberal voters hold more negative views - 29% better shape, 41% worse shape - but are still more positive than the province as a whole (19% and 51%). Three years from now, 70% of BC Liberal voters feel government finances will be in "better shape" than they are today, and a similar number (74%) are optimistic about the provincial economy. In both cases, Liberals are more positive in their outlook than the provincial population as a whole (54% and 52%, respectively).
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 257-3200
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