Bounces and Blunders: NDP (33%) Surges from Post-Convention Momentum, Tories (34%) Stumble amid Controversies

Toronto, ON - The NDP and newly-elected leader Thomas Mulcair are enjoying their honeymoon following the NDP leadership convention, while Stephen Harper and the Tories stumble from multiple controversies, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Postmedia News and Global Television.

If an election were held tomorrow, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives would receive 34% of the decided vote, down three points since last month, likely a result of multiple controversies including ballooning jet-fighter costs, changes to the old-age security benefit, the robo-call scandal and a weak budget that more people thought was bad than good. In contrast, the NDP under Thomas Mulcair would receive 33% support among decided voters, up 4 points since last month, enjoying a boost from their recent high-profile convention.

The Liberals, under interim leader Bob Rae would receive 21% support (down 2 points), while the Green Party led by Elizabeth May would garner 4% of the vote (unchanged). Nationally, Daniel Paillй and the Bloc would receive 7% support, or 28% in Quebec. One percent (1%) of Canadians would vote for some other party.

• In Ontario, the Tories (41%) hold a comfortable lead over the sparring Liberals (27%) and NDP (27%), while the Green Party (6%) trails behind.
• In Quebec, the NDP (41%) have a solid lead over the Bloc (28%), Conservatives (15%) and Liberals (15%). The Green Party (1%) lags.

Not only has Conservative support declined in the last month relative to other parties, but Stephen Harper's own approval rating has dropped as well. Four in ten (42%) Canadians currently `approve' (13% strongly/29% somewhat) of the way Stephen Harper is handling his job as Prime Minister (down 6 points), while six in ten (57%) `disapprove' (27% strongly/30% somewhat) of his job as Prime Minister (up 6 points). Two percent (2%) don't know.

Regionally, Harper's approval ratings are highest in Alberta (62%), followed by those living in Ontario (45%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (44%), British Columbia (44%), Atlantic Canada (33%) and Quebec (29%). Those in Quebec (69%) are most likely to disapprove of his performance, followed by those living in Atlantic Canada (66%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (56%), British Columbia (55%), Ontario (53%) and Alberta (36%).

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These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from April 3 to 5, 2011. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone, and 1,008 interviews were conducted online via the Ipsos I-say panel. Ipsos merged the two sample sources and employed weighting to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflected that of the adult population according to Census data. A survey with an unwieghted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of sample of 1772 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, methodology change, coverage error and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

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