Canadian Alliance On The Move -- Voters Taking A Look

Liberal Support Holding Steady at 45%, Canadian Alliance on the Rise at 24% While the NDP (11%), PCs (10%), and BQ (10%) Each have the Support of 1 in 10 Decided Voters

Among Leaders, Stockwell Day Shows Positive Momentum while Chrйtien, Clark, and McDonough are on the Slide

Liberals Still Seen as the Party Which Would Do the "Best Job" on Issues Tested but Alliance not Far Behind

52% of Canadians Say the Liberals Deserve to Be Re-Elected While 45% Say They Do Not

62% Say It Is Time For All Federal Parties to Change Leaders

Toronto, Ontario -- The results of an Angus Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll reveal that support for the Federal Liberals is holding steady while support for the Canadian Alliance is on the rise, largely at the expense of the Progressive Conservatives. If an election were held tomorrow, 45 percent of decided voters would support the Liberals while 24 percent would support the Canadian Alliance (up 6 points since May). Support among the PCs has dropped to 10 percent, an all time historic low for the party. Among the leaders of the federal parties, Stockwell Day is the only one who shows signs of positive momentum; however, Chrйtien maintains the strongest approval rating (57%). The Liberals continue to be seen as the party which would do the "best job" on all issues tested but Canadians are divided on the question of whether the Liberals deserve to be re-elected (52% "deserve to be re-elected", 45% "do not deserve to be re-elected"). Meanwhile, 6 in 10 (62%) Canadians say that it is time for all of our federal parties to change leaders to allow new generation to run the country.

These are the findings of an Angus Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between July 20th and July 26th, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,503 adult Canadians. The results are accurate to within 177 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Liberal Support Holding Steady at 45%, Canadian Alliance on the Rise at 24% While the NDP (11%), PCs (10%), and BQ (10%) Each have the Support of 1 in 10 Decided Voters

If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would receive 45 percent support among decided voters. The percentage support for each party is listed below:

• Liberals - 45%
• Canadian Alliance - 24%
• NDP - 11%
• PC - 10%
• BQ - 10%
• Other - 1%

Ontario (55%) and Atlantic Canada (51%) continue to be the Liberals' stronghold; however, they also receive strong support in Quebec (41%). Their lowest support comes from Alberta (25%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (31%). Support for the Liberal party has remained largely unchanged since January 1998 and is currently 7 points higher than the 38 percent support they received in the June 1997 Federal election.

At 24 percent, the Canadian Alliance still trails the Liberals by an almost two to one margin, however, support for the Alliance has increased by 6 points since May 2000. Support for the Canadian Alliance remains Western based, with the highest support in Alberta (54%) and B.C. (40%).

Support for the PCs has fallen four points since May 2000 to an all-time historical low of 10 percent, and in the important electoral battleground of Ontario, the Alliance has for the first time overtaken the PCs in popular support. Support for the Canadian Alliance (22%) has increased 6 points since May 2000 while support for the PCs has fallen 7 points (12%) creating a 10 point lead for the Alliance.

Among Leaders, Stockwell Day Shows Positive Momentum While Chrйtien, Clark and McDonough are on the Slide

Stockwell Day is the only leader for whom the number of Canadians who say their opinion of him has "improved" (25%) is higher than the number of Canadians who say their opinion has "worsened" (14%) over the last two weeks (+11). This compares with both Jean Chrйtien and Joe Clark where the number of Canadians who say their opinion of each of them has "improved" (10%) is 17 points lower (-17) than the number who say their opinion of them has "worsened" (27%). Finally, 5 percent of Canadians say their opinion of NDP leader Alexa McDonough has "improved' compared with 9% who say their opinion of her has "worsened".

Nonetheless, at 57 percent approval as Prime Minister, Jean Chrйtien still receives the highest approval rating of any of the federal leaders. In second place, Stockwell Day receives 45 percent approval as leader of the Canadian Alliance, while Alexa McDonough receives 40 percent as NDP leader. Meanwhile, Joe Clark receives only 35 percent approval as leader of the PCs and is the only leader where a majority (51%) of Canadians "disapprove" of his performance.

Liberals Still Seen as the Party Which Would Do the "Best Job" on Issues Tested but Alliance not Far Behind

Of the five federal parties, the Liberals are seen to be the party who will do the "best job" on all the issues which were tested. The Liberals enjoy their widest lead (23 points) over the second place Canadian Alliance in "managing the economy" where 45 percent of Canadians say the Liberals would do the "best job". Meanwhile the Liberals (31%) and the Alliance (30%) are neck and neck in terms of who would do the "best job" in "reducing taxes". Compared with 1997, there has been an increase in the number of Canadians who say the Liberals are doing a "good job" on these issues. Compared with 1997 data gathered just prior to the election, the percentage of Canadians who say the Liberals would do a "good job" has increased for all issues tested.

52% of Canadians Say the Liberals Deserve to Be Re-Elected While 45% Say They Do Not

Canadians are divided on whether the Liberals "deserve to be re-elected because overall they are doing what is right for the country" (52%) or whether they "do not deserve to be re-elected because one of the other major federal parties could do a better job of managing the country" (45%). These results are similar to those obtained in 1997 when 48 percent of Canadians said the Liberals deserve to be re-elected compared with 42 percent who said they do not.

Of those Canadians who say that the Liberals should not be re-elected, 50 percent say that Stockwell Day and the Canadian Alliance would do a better job of managing the country while 15 percent say Joe Clark and the Progressive Conservatives and 13 percent say the NDP and Alexa McDonough would do a better job.

• Regionally, Ontarians (59%) are the most likely to say the Liberals deserve to be re-elected while Albertans (38%) are the least likely to say this.
• Women (56%) are more likely than men (48%) to say that the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.

62% Say It Is Time For All Federal Parties to Change Leaders

More than 6 in 10 (62%) Canadians say that "it is time for all of our federal political parties to change leaders to allow a new generation to run our country" compared with one-third of Canadians (34%) who say that "while change is sometimes good, in these trying times it would be better for Canada if our federal political parties held on to their current leaders."

• Residents of BC (67%), Alberta (68%) and Quebec (66%) are most likely to say that it is time for the parties to change leaders.
• Liberal supporters (50%) are least likely to say that it is time for a change, while supporters of the Canadian Alliance (78%) and the Bloc Quebecois (78%) are most likely to say that it is time for a change in leadership.
• There is no statistically significant differences between older and younger Canadians on the need to change leaders.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900