Despite Massive Market Sell-Offs,
Canadian Confidence in Economy Holds Steady

Toronto, ON - Amidst severe economic turmoil and massive market sell-offs in Toronto and around the world, the collapse of banks and financial institutions in the U.S. and abroad, a squeeze on credit availability and a controversial bail-out plan by the U.S. government, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National finds that Canadians' confidence in their economy is still relatively strong and stable.

Three quarters (73%) describe the Canadian economy as `very good' (5%) or `good' (68%), down only 1 point since mid-August. Conversely, 25% describe the economy as `poor' (20%) or `very poor' (5%). These results come just as the Bank of Canada injects $12 billion into the system to ensure Canadian banks have the credit and loan liquidity that they need to keep the economy moving.

But this level of confidence might not sustain itself, as many worry about the impacts that the U.S. financial crisis will have here at home. In fact, a majority (53%) believes the U.S. crisis will have a `major impact' on Canada's economy, and 44% believes that impact will be `minor'. Just 2% believe there will be `no impact'. Further, one half (50%) believes that the impact on Canada's financial institutions will be `major', with another 47% predicting the impact will be `minor'. Just 2% believe there will be `no impact'.

These attitudes are likely a result of most (91%) Canadians indicating that they believe this crisis will be `a long-term problem that will take months or even years to sort out', as opposed to simply `a short-term problem that will get fixed in the next few weeks' (8%).

The Impact on Families...

It's not just the economy at large that Canadians worry about, but also the impact on their own families. A majority (54%) indicate that they are `worried' (10% very/44% somewhat) `about the financial situation in the U.S. impacting' them or their families, while a minority (45%) are `not worried' (31% not very/14% not at all). To this effect, two in ten (21%) say they've `made personal financial decisions', including changing their investments or delaying a major purchase, as a result of this crisis.

However, the data reveal that most Canadians are likely not yet feeling the effects of the financial crisis in their own personal lives. Just 2% say that they've had difficulty getting a loan recently because of the crisis. Most (95%) have not. Furthermore, job anxiety is at one of its lowest points in the last 18 years, with only 14% of Canadians indicating that they or someone in their household is worried about losing their job or being laid off.

Many Canadians aren't necessarily expecting to emerge from this crisis unscathed, however, with four in ten (38%) predicting that the economy will `get worse' over the next year or so, far more than the 20% who believe it will `improve'. Four in ten (40%) believe there will be no change from its current state.

But the sense of caution about the overall economy isn't translating into pessimism about Canadians' own families' future. Three in ten (29%) believe that their own economic situation will `improve', compared to just 16% who believe their situation will `get worse'. Most (55%) believe it will stay the same.

Big Purchases Set to Decline, But Day-to-Day Spending To Grow...

The current crisis does appear to be affecting Canadians' intentions to purchase big-ticket items, with one in three (32%) indicating that they intend to spend less on these items this year compared to last. One in four (22%) say they'll spend more, while one half (46%) thinks that amount will remain steady.

Thinking of the largest of purchases, a home, just one in ten (10%) say they're `likely' (3% very/6% somewhat) to `purchase a home or another home right now', down from 15% in mid-August. Perhaps driving this decision is the fact that half (51%) think interest rates will rise in the next while, not fall (15%) or `remain unchanged' (30%).

Nevertheless, when asked about their day-to-day spending, one in three (32%) say that they will spend `more than last year', while half of that (16%) will spend `less'. A majority (52%) will spend `about the same'.

Economy Dominates the Campaign...

The economy is dominating the campaign as the issue that Canadians most want their leaders to be addressing, with 34% of Canadians saying that it is the number one issue. Following distantly behind are healthcare (15%), the environment (11%), taxes (9%), poverty (6%), jobs/unemployment (6%), crime/justice (5%), education/schools/universities (3%), and the armed forces/military/defence (1%). Seven percent don't know which issue is most important to them.

Focusing on the four most important issues of the campaign, here is what Canadians think about which party leader has the best policies and ideas for dealing with the issue:

• Economy - 31% Stephen Harper, 18% Stephane Dion, 15% Jack Layton, 4% Gilles Duceppe, 3% Elizabeth May, 30% don't know.
• Healthcare - 23% Jack Layton, 20% Stephen Harper, 15% Stephane Dion, 6% Gilles Duceppe, 2% Elizabeth May, 33% don't know.
• The Environment - 28% Elizabeth May, 15% Stephen Harper, 14% Stephane Dion, 12% Jack Layton, 3% Gilles Duceppe, 28% don't know.
• Taxes - 32% Stephen Harper, 17% Stephane Dion, 15% Jack Layton, 4% Gilles Duceppe, 2% Elizabeth May, 29% don't know.

Focusing specifically on the economy, when asked which leader they thought would `do the best job of dealing with the impact of the U.S. financial situation on Canada if they were elected on October 14th', Stephen Harper (41%) came out as the clear winner, followed by Dion (24%), Layton (15%), and May (3%). Within Quebec, Duceppe (14%) placed behind both Harper (30%) and Dion (30%), but ahead of both Layton (10%) and May (2%).

These are the findings of two Ipsos Reid polls conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television:

The first poll was conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,009 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

The second poll was conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2008. This survey of 1,026 adult Canadians was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel, based on quota sampling. Weighting then was employed to balance demographics and to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the Canadian adult population according to the latest Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls because they are based on samples drawn from opt-in online panels, not on random samples that mirror the population within a statistical probability ratio. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. However, an unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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