Federal Election 2006: The Call

Toronto, ON - On the eve of Canada's 39th Federal Election, a new Ipsos Reid survey, conducted on behalf on CanWest News Service/Global News, shows that the Conservative Party under the leadership of Stephen Harper is on the cusp of forming the first non-Liberal government since 1993, while the Bloc Quebecois and the once seemingly invincible Federal Liberal Party battle it out for status as the official opposition in the new government. Meanwhile, the NDP will look to be a serious power-broker within the new-look federal landscape, as they stand to make impressive gains in the House Of Commons.

Ipsos Reid's seat model projects the Conservatives will take 148-152 seats, the Liberals 62-66 seats, the NDP 34-38 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois 56-60 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.

And with new polling fielded over the final weekend election push of the federal leaders, the results suggest that the final national vote will be:

• 38% support for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party
• 27% support for Paul Martin and the Liberal Party
• 19% support for Jack Layton and the NDP
• 12% support for the Bloc Quebecois
• 4% support for the Green Party

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from January 17th to January 22nd, 2006. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 9,648 adult Canadians who are either very likely or absolutely certain to vote were interviewed. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 1771.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900