Federal Landscape At One Month After Election

Toronto, ON - A month after being elected to government Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party appear to be well entrenched atop the federal polls while their chief national rival, the Liberal Party, has slipped somewhat since Election Day. But there has been substantial movement within the province of Quebec, where the Conservatives are up 9 points since the election to 34% --now in a virtual tie with the Bloc Quebecois (36%, -6 points) and with more than twice the support than the Liberals (14%, -7 points). Such results suggest that if an election were held tomorrow, the Conservative Party would likely be delivered a majority government. This according to a new Ipsos Reid national survey of 1000 Canadians conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service/Global News.

According to the survey, the Conservatives are up 3 points in popular support since Election Day, and currently attract 39% of votes. Meanwhile, the Liberals have fallen 3 points and now hold 27% support and the NDP are at 20% (+3 points).

Among all Canadians, 9% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or don't know.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from February 14th to February 16th, 2006. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
[email protected]

Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada - including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country - all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

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