The Federal Political Scene

The special year-end Southam News/CTV/Angus Reid Poll, conducted among a representative cross-section of 1506 Canadians between December 6th and 13th, yielded the following findings on the federal political parties' popular support levels:

The poll shows the Chretien Liberals holding 49 percent of the decided vote nationally, Reform at 16 percent (20% across English-speaking regions), the Bloc Quebecois at 10 percent (41% in Quebec), the Conservatives at 11 percent, and the new Democrats at 10 percent. (Table 1A and Table 1B) (A total of 22% were undecided/refused or said they would not vote in a federal election).

The federal Liberals' current 49 percent share of the decided vote represents a steady decline of 9 percentage points since September. All other parties have recorded marginal gains (2 or 3 points) during this period, with the exception of the Conservatives whose support has dipped marginally. (Table 1A) The Liberals continue to enjoy a very solid lead in Ontario (57%) and Atlantic Canada (57%), as well as across Manitoba/Saskatchewan (44%). But, they are currently tied with the two major regional parties in Quebec and Alberta, and this poll also shows Reform challenging the Liberals in BC (8 points back).

The Chretien Liberal government's popular approval ratings have also declined since the fall: 56 percent of the voters participating in this year-end poll expressed approval of their overall performance (11% strongly, 45% moderately) versus 41 percent who disapproved (22% strongly, 19% moderately). This 15 point margin of popular approval compares to a 34 point spread recorded the last time the Angus Reid Group assessed this in September (65% approved, 31% disapproved), but to a more modest 19 points at the beginning of 1995. The regional results show most Quebecers (56% versus 41%) now disapprove of the Chretien Liberal government, the first time a region has registered full majority disapproval since the October 1993 election. This poll also finds Atlantic Canadians and Albertans lukewarm in their overall appraisal of the Liberal government's performance.

This national Southam News/CTV/Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between December 6th and 13th, 1995 among a representative cross-section of 1506 Canadian adults. The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. - 200; Alberta - 135; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 124; Ontario - 526; Quebec - 400; Atlantic - 121. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 Census data. With a national sample of 1506, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

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For further information, contact:

Angus Reid
Chairman & CEO
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200

Darrel Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900