Federal Political Trends

The federal Liberals continue to enjoy very solid popular support and approval ratings according to the latest National Angus Reid Poll, while the Reform party has inched upwards to regain a marginal hold on a very distant second place over the federal Conservatives. The poll, conducted among a representative cross-section of 1503 Canadian voters between September 21st and 24th 1995, shows that, as the referendum campaign moves into high gear, national unity/Quebec's future has jumped up to occupy the top spot on Canadians' public issues agenda.

The highlights of the poll results on the federal party standings are as follows:

The Liberals are currently holding 58 percent of the decided vote across the country, while the Reform party is at 14 percent, the Conservatives are at 12 percent, the Bloc Quebecois is at 8 percent, and the federal New Democrats are at 7 percent. All other parties combined are currently holding the support of 1 percent of decided voters. (The poll finds a total of 21 percent of Canadian voters are currently undecided/refused or do not intend to vote in an upcoming federal election.) Across English-speaking regions of the country, the federal Liberals are currently holding 60 percent of the decided vote, the Reform party 18 percent, the Conservatives 13 percent, and the New Democrats 9 percent.

The federal Liberals have been in the mid to high 50's in popular support throughout their sustained post-election honeymoon. Their current 58 percent share represents a marginal 3-point increase in their national support since the last publicly released National Angus Reid Poll conducted in late July. They continue to enjoy a lead in all major regions of the country (as high as 79% in Atlantic Canada and 63% in Ontario), including Quebec (52%) and Alberta (51%).

The Reform party has also inched up a marginal two points since late July to 14 percent nationally, edging out the federal Conservatives (down two points to 12%) for a very distant second place. This latest poll shows Reform support up marginally across all major English-speaking regions except their traditional stronghold of Alberta where they trail the Liberals (36% to 51%).

The steady upward progress that the federal Conservatives had registered over the spring and early summer appears to have abated, at least for now. Their recent 2-point dip breaks a trend that saw them move up 9 points between late February and late July (from 5% to 14% of the divided vote, enough to edge out Reform for a very distant second place). The party's support is highest in Ontario (17%), no doubt a reflection of their provincial cousins' victory in June.

In Quebec, this current poll shows the Bloc Quebecois holding 33 percent of the decided vote compared to 52 percent for the federal Liberals here. This is consistent with the Angus Reid Group polls published over the past several months.

The Canadian public continues to approve of the federal Liberal government's overall performance: the margin recorded in this latest poll is 65 percent approve (14% strongly, 51% moderately) versus 31 percent disapprove (15% strongly, 16% moderately). This represents an 8-point increase in popular approval of the federal government from the 57 percent recorded in January, the last time the Angus Reid Group gauged the public's broad assessment of the Chretien Liberal government's performance. The federal Liberals' approval ratings are most modest in Quebec where 51 percent approve versus 45 percent disapprove (still a marginal improvement from the 45% approve, 49% disapprove registered here in January).

The Bloc Quebecois' performance as the official opposition, meanwhile, is meeting with increasing voter disapproval. Across English-speaking Canada, this poll finds 87 percent of voters disapprove of the BQ's performance (up from 80% in January). The Quebecers surveyed were evenly divided (47% approve, 48% disapprove) compared to a majority endorsement of the Bloc's performance in January (56% to 34%).

In the case of Reform, nationally, 40 percent approve versus 43 percent who disapprove of their performance in opposition, unchanged from the results in the January National Angus Reid Poll. The margin is favourable in B.C. and Alberta where full majorities approve (53% and 67% respectively). Voters in Manitoba/Saskatchewan and Ontario are split in their appraisal of Reform's performance, while those in Atlantic Canada (50% disapprove) and Quebec (47% disapprove, 24% approve) are more critical of Reform.

THE PUBLIC'S AGENDA

The September National Angus Reid Poll asked Canadians to name those issues which they feel are the most important for the country at this time. This "open-ended" question, placed at the very beginning of the survey, yielded the following responses (listed in descending order of their level of total mentions):

• National Unity/Quebec's Political Future:
  Fully one-half (53%) of Canadians surveyed in the second half of September cited this issue, on a "top-of-mind" basis, as the most pressing one for the country today. This represents more than a doubling of this issue's presence on the public's agenda since the 22 percent total mentions recorded in the July National Angus Reid Poll. Indeed, as the referendum campaign moves into high gear, this issue's placement on the public agenda has reached the highest level yet recorded by the Angus Reid Group since it began tracking unaided mentions of this specific response category in July 1990.
• Jobs/Unemployment:
  Thirty percent of respondents pointed to the unemployment situation as the issue warranting the nation's utmost attention right now. While unity/Quebec has replaced jobs for the top spot on the public's "top-of-mind" issues agenda, mentions of unemployment/jobs have been stable for the past several months, maintaining this issue's significant presence on the public's agenda.
• Economy:
  One in four (23%) surveyed Canadians said that the economy in general is the most important issue currently facing the country.
• Government Deficits/Debt:
  The public deficit/debt was mentioned by just about one in five (18%) survey participants as the most critical issue currently facing the country. This represents a 10-point drop from the 28 percent naming this issue in soundings taken this summer and spring, and is fully 30 points below the 48 percent recorded in an Angus Reid Group poll conducted in February just prior to the release of the federal budget.
• Health Care:
  Fifteen percent of those surveyed singled out health care as Canada's top priority right now, fully twice as many as named this issue at the beginning of the year.
• Crime/Justice Issues:
  Issues of this nature were specified by seven percent of Canadians surveyed.
• Other Social Services:
  A similar number (6%) of survey respondents felt that other social services should receive undivided attention from the country's leaders today.
• Native Issues:
  Issues concerning this country's aboriginals were highlighted by one in twenty (5%) polled Canadians.

A number of other issues were named by smaller numbers of survey respondents as critical for Canada today, including: poverty (4%); education (4%); taxes (2%); the environment (2%); immigration/refugees (2%); and others.

This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between September 21st and 24th, 1995 among a representative cross-section of 1503 Canadian adults . The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. - 200; Alberta - 137; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 119; Ontario - 525; Quebec - 400; Atlantic - 122. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 Census data. With a national sample of 1503, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within 1772.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For further information, contact:

Darrel Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900