FEDERAL POLITICS IN BC FALL 1999

BC PUBLIC GIVES PM CHRЙTIEN TOP APPROVAL RATING (63%); MANNING (46%) FALLS BEHIND MCDONOUGH (48%), EVEN WITH PC LEADER JOE CLARK (46%)

BC PUBLIC SATISFIED WITH LIBERAL GOVERNMENT (64%), LESS HAPPY WITH REFORM PARTY OPPOSITION (55%)

This BC Angus Reid Group poll is based on a provincial telephone survey conducted between Sept 1st and Sept 10th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC according to 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 600, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

Popular support for the federal Liberal party has taken a big jump this quarter, putting the Liberals at their highest support level in BC since the summer of 1996. Meanwhile, Reform party support is eroding further, dropping to its lowest level in BC in three years. And, continued favourable views of the government and Prime Minister Chrйtien hint that the BC population is generally satisfied with Liberal efforts to govern the country.

Meanwhile, British Columbians are much more negative in their views of the Reform party's performance in Ottawa this quarter. In particular, they are much more critical of Preston Manning's leadership than at any time over the past 3 years, leaving the way for other party leaders to shine.

SUPPORT FOR FEDERAL LIBERALS JUMPS 7 POINTS TO 53%, WHILE REFORM SLIPS FURTHER BEHIND (23%)

Currently 53 percent of decided voters in BC say they would vote Liberal in a federal election. This gives the Liberals a commanding 30-point lead over the Reform party, which garners 23 percent support. The NDP (14%), Progressive Conservatives (8%), and Green party (4%) trail further behind.

The federal Liberals' popularity among BC voters has jumped a significant 6 percentage points over the past 3 months (47% to 53%), reaching levels the party hasn't seen since June of 1996 (55%). Reform party support meanwhile continues to slip, this time by 4 points (27% to 23%), which is the lowest number since December of 1996 (22%). Standings for both the NDP (+2), PC (-1), and Green (no change) parties have changed marginally since last quarter.

Overall, 10 percent of British Columbians are currently uncommitted as to which federal party they would support, very close to the same number as in June of this year.

Regional and socio-demographic variations in federal party support are as follows:

• The federal Liberals obtain majority support across all regions in the province, with very little variation. This is also true among the various socio-demographic segments in the population.
• The federal Reform party gains stronger support from people living in areas outside of the southeastern corner of BC (29%), and from men (26% vs. 16% of women), and older British Columbians (28% of 55+ vs. 14% of 18-34 year olds).

BC PUBLIC GIVES PM CHRЙTIEN TOP APPROVAL RATING (63%); MANNING (46%) FALLS BEHIND MCDONOUGH (48%), EVEN WITH PC LEADER JOE CLARK (46%)

Currently, 63 percent of British Columbians approve of the job Jean Chrйtien is doing as Prime Minister, compared to 46 percent who are satisfied with Preston Manning's performance as Official Opposition leader in Ottawa. NDP leader, Alexa McDonough (48%), is now ahead of Manning, while Tory leader, Joe Clark (46%), has closed closed the gap completely.

Chrйtien's approval rating remains unchanged since June of this year. Meanwhile, Preston Manning's approval rating has experienced a significant 7 point drop over the past 3 months (53% to 46%), and is his lowest rating since March of 1997 (42%). Alexa McDonough's rating meanwhile has moved up a very significant 9 points since June of this year when 39 percent of the BC public approved of the job she was doing. Joe Clark has regained some lost ground here in BC, inching up 2 points since June (44% to 46%).

In all, 36 percent of the BC public disapproves of Chrйtien's job as PM, up 1 point from our June poll. Manning's disapproval rating has increased significantly to 49 percent, up 8 points over the summer months. Disapproval for Alexa McDonough has also jumped 7 points (to 41%), while dissatisfaction with Joe Clark has inched up 3 points since June (to 38%).

Trends in leader approval ratings are consistent across all regional and socio-demographic groups, with very little variation.

BC PUBLIC SATISFIED WITH LIBERAL GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE (64% APPROVE), LESS HAPPY WITH REFORM PARTY OPPOSITION (55%)

VCurrently, 64 percent of British Columbians say they approve of the job the Liberal party is doing governing Canada, up a marginal 1 percentage point since June of this year. To contrast, 34 percent of British Columbians disapprove of the Liberals' performance, down a single point over the past 3 months.

VA majority of the BC population remains satisfied with the job the Reform party is doing in Ottawa as the Official Opposition, but the review is slightly more negative this quarter. In all, 55 percent approve of Reform's performance, and 41 percent disapprove. The party's approval rating has decreased 3 points since June, while the number of people in the province who disapprove has gone up 4 points.

VFor further information contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 893-1610

The Angus Reid Group is Canada's largest and most well-known Canadian research company. Established in 1979 by Dr. Angus Reid, the company serves 1200 clients via its six offices in Canada, four offices in the United States and its European office in London, England. With a complement of 250 full time qualitative and quantitative researchers, the company has annual revenues of $65 million and is growing at an average rate of 30 percent per year. The employee-owned company also operates its own field service entity, Direct Reid, utilizing 450 CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) stations for North American calling and a 50,000 household consumer panel in Canada.