Federal Politics in BC September 2000

British Columbians Choose Day Over Chrйtien and Other Party Leaders When it Comes to Addressing Key Concerns

Vancouver, BC -- An early September 2000 Angus Reid Group survey in British Columbia, prior to the opening of Parliament, finds that popular support for the federal Liberal party continues to slip in the province, from 40 percent three months ago to 34 percent, returning the party to support levels it obtained in the June 1997 election. Meanwhile, the Canadian Alliance party continues to register big gains in BC - from 36 percent in June to its current 43 percent standing, up another 7 points. The Alliance is up a full 13 points over the past six months, putting the party at a post-1997 election high. "It appears that Stockwell Day and the Alliance have touched a positive chord in British Columbia," observes Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President, Public Affairs (Vancouver). "Critically for the party, Day appears to have successfully translated his recent leadership win into momentum for the party in BC in advance of a federal election campaign. If momentum counts for anything, one has to believe the Alliance is well positioned to remain dominant in BC in the next federal election. By comparison, Liberal support appears to be waning at a rapid pace. The fact that this is happening in all areas of the province and so close to an election call could spell trouble for the party in areas like Greater Vancouver and Victoria where it currently has sitting MPs."

On the leadership front, a reduced majority of British Columbians approves of Prime Minister Chrйtien's performance (56%, down 4 points), and of his Liberal government (53%, down 6). Both continue to be eclipsed by the wave of positive reviews for Stockwell Day (61% approve) and the Canadian Alliance opposition (66%). Further, British Columbians pick Stockwell Day over all other federal party leaders for being able to deliver in key areas of concern for British Columbians, such as having a vision for the country, dealing with the national debt, managing taxpayers' money, and understanding the problems of the average Canadian. "It's clear that Stockwell Day has captured the imagination of British Columbians on many different levels. He has successfully positioned himself as a leader who, in the public's mind at least, is better equipped to address some key concerns. This image will, of course, be tested over the next few months as Day lives the daily scrutiny of Parliament and the national media."

This BC Angus Reid Group poll is based on a provincial telephone survey conducted between September 5th and September 11th, 2000 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC according to 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 600, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within + 4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

Liberal Support Drops 6 Points to 34%; Liberals Fall Behind Surging Canadian Alliance (Up 7 Points to 43%)

Currently 34 percent of decided voters in BC say they would vote Liberal in a federal election. This drops the governing Liberals behind the Opposition Canadian Alliance (43%) for the first time in BC since the June 1997 federal election. The NDP (13%), Progressive Conservatives (6%), and Green party (4%) remain well back. One percent would vote for other parties.

The federal Liberals' popularity among BC voters has plummeted a dramatic 6 points over the past three months (40% to 34%); this is the fourth consecutive quarter the party has dropped in public support. At 34 percent, the Liberals are now at their lowest point in popular support since the 1997 federal election. The Canadian Alliance seems to have developed some momentum after its post-leadership campaign bounce. At 43 percent of popular support, the Alliance has not only jumped 7 full percentage points since our June poll to now lead the governing Liberals, its current support is higher than that obtained by its Reform party predecessors at any time since 1997.

Meanwhile, standings for the NDP have increased only marginally since June (11% to 13%), while PC and Green party numbers have remained pretty much the same. Overall, 10 percent of British Columbians are uncommitted as to which federal party they would support; this is up 1 point over last quarter's poll.

Regional and socio-demographic variations in federal party support are as follows:

• Federal Liberal support is similar across all regions of the province, but the party draws less support in the Interior of the province. Liberals enjoy greater popularity among younger British Columbians (38% of less than 35 year olds vs. 26% of those 55+), university graduates (41% vs. 28% high school or less), and people living in upper income households (40% vs. 33% lower income).
• The Canadian Alliance obtains stronger support from people living in the Interior of BC (51%), while it is weakest in Vancouver/Burnaby (36%) and on Vancouver Island (36%) where it nonetheless remains competitive with the Liberals (38% in both regions). The Alliance receives more support from men (49%, vs. 35% women), older British Columbians (57%), and people living in non-union households (47%).

Day Continues to Impress BC Public (61% Approve); Chrйtien Slips Another 4 Points to 56%

Currently, 56 percent of British Columbians approve of the job Jean Chrйtien is doing as Prime Minister. This puts Chrйtien further behind federal Opposition Leader, Stockwell Day, whose approval rating currently stands at 61 percent. NDP leader, Alexa McDonough (41%), and Tory leader, Joe Clark (38%) are well back.

Chrйtien's approval rating has dropped 4 points from our June poll (60%). To contrast, Stockwell Day's approval rating is 2 points up from what Preston Manning received last June before he relinquished the party's leadership to Day. Day's current approval rating is the highest received by his party's leader since the 1997 election. Alexa McDonough's rating meanwhile has dropped 2 points since June (43% to 41%). Joe Clark's image has dropped 6 points this quarter (44% to 38%).

In all, 43 percent of the BC public disapproves of Chrйtien's job as PM, up 4 points from our June BC Angus Reid poll. And, while 30 percent of people disapprove of Stockwell Day, his negative rating is 6 points lower than Manning's rating in June (36%). Disapproval for Alexa McDonough has moved up 4 points (40% to 44%), while dissatisfaction with Joe Clark has also jumped significantly (48% to 56%).

British Columbians are Less Satisfied with Liberal Government (53% - Down 6 Points), More Impressed by Alliance Opposition (66% Approve)

Currently, 53 percent of British Columbians say they approve of the job the Liberal party is doing governing Canada, down significantly from June of this year (59%). To contrast, 46 percent disapprove of the Liberals' performance, a jump of 6 points since last quarter (40%).

A solid majority of the BC population is satisfied with the job the Canadian Alliance is doing in Ottawa as the Official Opposition. In all, 66 percent approve of the party's performance in this regard, while only 27 percent disapprove. The party's approval rating is unchanged from June, while its disapproval numbers have dropped 3 points over the past three months.

British Columbians Choose Day Over Chrйtien and Other Party Leaders When it Comes to Addressing Key Concerns

Stockwell Day leads all other party leaders in British Columbians' assessment of who is best suited for addressing concerns in key areas.

British Columbians pick Stockwell Day ahead of other party leaders when it comes to:

• Has a sense of vision of where Canada should be in the future: Day (44%), compared to Chrйtien (25%), McDonough (11%), Clark (7%).
• Would make real progress in reducing Canada's national debt: Day (44%), compared to Chrйtien (27%), McDonough (6%), Clark (6%).
• Understands the problems facing the average Canadian: Day (40%), compared to Chrйtien (18%), McDonough (22%), Clark (6%).
• Would manage taxpayers' money wisely: Day (38%), compared to Chrйtien (25%), McDonough (10%), Clark (7%).
• Would not make promises they don't intend to keep: Day (30%), compared to Chrйtien (18%), McDonough (14%), Clark (12%).

British Columbians pick both Stockwell Day and Jean Chrйtien for:

• Would have the best policies to encourage long-term economic growth in Canada: Day (37%) and Chrйtien (36%), compared to McDonough (6%) and Clark (7%).
• Would make the best Prime Minister of Canada: Chrйtien (37%) and Day (36%), compared to McDonough (9%) and Clark (6%).

British Columbians pick Alexa McDonough ahead of other party leaders when it comes to:

• Would best protect Canada's publicly funded healthcare system: McDonough (31%), compared to Chrйtien (23%), Day (22%), Clark (8%).

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200