Four in Five (78%) Canadians Would Vote for Convention To Replace Prime Minister If Given Opportunity

Toronto, ONTARIO - According to the latest Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, if given the opportunity to vote at the February Liberal convention, four in five (78%) Canadians would vote for a leadership convention to choose a new Liberal leader. One in five (20%) would vote for Prime Minister Chretien to remain as Liberal leader.

With a backdrop of division within the governing Liberals over party leadership since the departure from cabinet of former Finance Minister Paul Martin in May, three-quarters (73%) Canadians believe that important government business has taken second place to the internal Liberal leadership dispute within the government.

In regards to the divisions in the Liberal party, a majority (55%) place the blame on the shoulders of Jean Chretien, while less than half that number (23%) say that former Finance Minister Paul Martin is to blame. One in ten (9%) do not blame either, while eight percent blame both equally.

In fact, two-thirds (64%) say that the Prime Minister is trying to remain in power for no other reason than for power's sake. Despite dropping five points since mid-July, the federal Liberals (41%) remain the most popular among decided voters. The Progressive Conservatives (18%) move up four points, while support for the Alliance (16%; -1) and the NDP (13%; -1) remains steady.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between August 13th and August 14th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 971 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Four in Five (78%) Canadians Would Vote for Convention To Replace Prime Minister If Given Opportunity

If given the opportunity to vote at the February Liberal Convention, four in five (78%) Canadians would vote for a leadership convention to choose a new Liberal leader, while one in five (20%) would vote for Prime Minister Chretien to remain as leader of the Liberals.

• Two-thirds (65%) of decided Liberal voters indicate they would vote for a leadership convention.
• Regionally, the call for a leadership convention is strongest in Alberta (87%), British Columbia (86%), and Manitoba/Saskatchewan (82%), while support for the Prime Minister to remain is Quebec (27%), Ontario (23%) and Atlantic Canada (23%).
• Older (83%) voters are more likely to indicate a desire for a leadership convention than younger (72%) voters. Middle aged (78%) Canadians reflect the national average.
• Canadians in upper income households (82%) are more likely to support a leadership vote than those in lower income households (72%). Canadians in middle income households (77%) are closer to the national average on this subject.

Three-Quarters (73%) Believe Important Government Business Has Taken Second Place to Internal Liberal Dispute

With a backdrop of division in the governing Liberal party over the issue of leadership since the departure from cabinet of former Finance Minister Paul Martin in May, three-quarters (73%) of Canadians believe that important government business has taken second place to the internal Liberal leadership dispute within the government. Just over one-fifth (22%) do not agree with this view.

• Albertans (78%), Ontarians (77%) and residents of Atlantic Canada (77%) are the most likely to agree with this view, followed by those in British Columbia (74%) and Manitoba/Saskatchewan (70%). Residents of Quebec (62%) are least likely to believe this to be the case.
• Canadians in upper (76%) and middle (75%) income households are more likely than those in lower income households (64%) to express agreement.

A Majority (55%) Blame Prime Minister for Division in Liberal Party - 23% Blame Paul Martin In regards to the divisions in the Liberal party, a majority (55%) place the blame on the shoulders of Jean Chretien for the internal squabbling, while less than half that number (23%) believe that former Finance Minister Paul Martin is mostly to blame. One in ten (9%) do not blame either gentleman, while eight percent blame both equally.

• Among decided Liberal supporters, just under half (45%) place the blame on the Prime Minister, while 32% blame Paul Martin.
• Regionally, those who blame the Prime Minister for the internal party division are more likely to be in British Columbia (63%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (62%) or Alberta (61%). This compares to Ontario (52%), Atlantic Canada (51%) and Quebec (49%). Quebecers (32%) are the most likely to place the blame on Mr. Martin for the dispute.
• Older (58%) Canadian are more likely than younger (46%) Canadians to blame the Prime Minister, while younger (13%) Canadians are more likely than their older (6%) counterparts to believe that neither is to blame.
• Those in upper income households (59%) are more likely that those in lower income households (49%) to place the blame for the party division on the Prime Minister.

Two-Thirds (64%) Say Prime Minister Clinging On for Power's Sake Alone

Two-thirds (64%) say that the Prime Minister is trying to remain in power for no other reason than for power's sake, while one-third (34%) express the dissenting view.

• Regionally, views on this statement are split between Western Canada and Eastern Canada. Highest agreement is found among Albertans (75%), British Columbians (70%) and those in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (68%). Lower agreement occurs among residents of Ontario (61%), Quebec (60%) and Atlantic Canada (57%).
• There also appears to be an age gap regarding this view. Older (76%) Canadians are more likely to express agreement with this view than younger (53%) Canadians. Middle aged (63%) Canadians are closer to the national average on this topic.
• This view is strongest among decided Conservative (80%) and Alliance (78%) supporters. A slim majority (51%) of decided Liberal voters agree with this view, compared to 48% of Liberal voters who disagree.

In fact, only one in four (24%) believe that Jean Chretien has earned the right to remain as leader of the Liberal Party for as long as he wants. Three in four (75%) disagree with this proposition, with a majority (56%) who strongly disagree.

• Decided Liberal supporters (37%) are the most likely to agree with this view.
• Regionally, the highest level of agreement that the Prime Minister has earned the right to remain leader as long as he wants is found among Atlantic Canadians (34%) and Quebecers (29%), while the highest proportion of those that disagree are among Albertans (88%) and resident of British Columbia (83%).
• Once again, there appears to be an age gap, with younger (31%) Canadians more likely to agree that the Prime Minister has earned the right to stay, and older (20%) Canadians less likely to agree to this proposal.

While just one-third (35%) of voters agree that Jean Chretien has a vision and a program for taking the nation forward, this compares to 63% who disagree with this view. Decided Liberal voters (57%) are more likely than supporters of other parties to agree with this view. This compares to the views of decided supporters of the NDP (25%), the Bloc Quebecios (20%), Progressive Conservatives (19%) and the Canadian Alliance (15%).

• Atlantic Canadians (40%) are the most likely to agree that Jean Chretien has a vision and program for the nation, followed by residents of Ontario (38%), Quebec (37%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (36%), while those in British Columbia (28%) and Alberta (26%) are least likely to agree with this view.
• Younger (46%) Canadians are more likely to agree with this view than are their older (27%) counterparts. Middle aged (34%) Canadians are closer to the national average regarding this view.
• Canadians in lower income households (44%) are more likely to agree that the Prime Minister has a vision for the country than do Canadians in middle (34%) or upper (32%) income households.

Liberals (41%) Drop 5 Points Since Mid July But Still Retain Lead

The federal Liberals (41%) remain the most popular among decided voters, despite dropping five points since mid-July.

• Regionally, support for the Liberals is strongest in Ontario (56%), followed by Atlantic Canada (40%), Quebec (38%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%), and British Columbia (34%). Support for the governing party is lowest among Alberta (19%) residents.
• Younger (45%) voters are more likely to support the Liberals than are older (37%) voters.

The Progressive Conservatives (18%), move up four points since the last sounding in mid-July.

• Support for the Tories is strongest in Atlantic Canada (41%), and weakest in Quebec (5%).
• Women (22% versus 14% of men) are more likely to express support for the Conservatives.
• Older (21%) and middle aged (19%) voters are more likely to support the PC's than are younger (13%) voters.

Support for the Alliance (16%; -1) remains steady over the month.

• Alliance support is concentrated in Western Canada, with their highest support levels reported in Alberta (42%), British Columbia (28%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (22%). This compares to the levels of support in Ontario (10%), Quebec (7%), and Atlantic Canada (5%).
• Men (20%) are more likely than women (13%) to indicate support for the Canadian Alliance.
• Canadians in middle (19%) and upper (17%) income households are more likely than their counterparts in lower income households (10%) to express support for the Alliance.

New Democratic Party (13%; -1) support also remains constant since mid-July.

• Regionally, NDP strength is reported in British Columbia (18%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (18%) and Quebec, while it is lower in Alberta (9%), Ontario (9%) and Atlantic Canada (9%).

The Bloc Quebecois (nationally 8%, +1) garners 33% support in Quebec. This is up seven points over mid-July. This compares to the support for the Liberals in the province (38%) which has declined eight points since mid-July.

Four in Ten (40%) More Likely to Vote Liberal in Next Election if Martin Leader - While Only One in Ten (8%) More Likely If Chretien Remains

Four in ten (40%) Canadians indicate that they would be more likely to vote for the Liberal Party in the next general election if Paul Martin was leader, while only one in ten (8%) say they would be more like to vote Liberal if Jean Chretien remained as leader. In fact, 44% indicate that they would be less likely to vote for the Grits if Jean Chretien remained as leader - compared to 12% who said this of Paul Martin.

• When looking at decided voters, Paul Martin appears to gather possible support from not just decided Liberal voters but also from other parties. In fact, 45% of decided Alliance supporters, 43% of Bloc supporters, 39% of Conservative supporters and 34% of NDP supporters say they would be more likely to vote for the Liberals with Mr. Martin as leader.
• Residents of British Columbia (47%) are more likely to indicate they would be more likely to vote Liberal if Paul Martin was the leader, while residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (30%) and Atlantic Canada (28%) are less likely to indicate this view.
• Canadians from upper income households (51%) are more likely to say they would be more likely to vote for a Paul Martin lead Liberal Party, than are Canadians in middle (36%) or lower (30%) income households.
• Older (48% versus 27% of younger) Canadians and women (43% versus 37% of men) indicate they are more inclined to vote for the Liberals with Paul Martin as leader.
• As for the likelihood of voting for a Chretien lead Liberal Party, a higher proportion of voters in British Columbia (56%) and Alberta (50%) indicate they are less likely to vote Liberal in this scenario than those in other regions. Residents in Atlantic Canada (33%) are the least likely to say they are less likely to vote for a Chretien lead Liberal party in the next general election.
• Canadians in upper income households (53% versus 31% of lower income households) and older (52% versus 35% of younger) Canadians are more likely to indicate they would be less likely to vote for a Liberal party lead by Prime Minister Chretien.

An equivalent number (Martin 46%; Chretien 46%) indicate either individual as leader would not effect their likelihood of voting Liberal.

Half (52%) Believe Government is Not Doing Well Without Paul Martin in Cabinet, and Seven in Ten (70%) Say Martin's Departure A Serious Blow to Federal Liberal Government

Half (52%) of Canadians think that the federal Chretien government is not getting along fine without former Finance Minister Paul Martin in Cabinet, while four in ten (43%) disagree with this view.

• Regionally, this view is strongest among residents of Quebec (57%), Alberta (56%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (54%) and British Columbia (53%), while it is lower in Atlantic Canada (47%) and Ontario (46%).
• Liberal (55%) supporters are more likely to believe the government is getting along fine without Mr. Martin, while 42% indicate they believe things have not been fine.

In fact, seven in ten (70%) Canadians say that Paul Martin's departure as Finance Minister from the federal Cabinet is a serious blow to the federal Liberal government. One-quarter (26%) do not see it this way.

• Those in middle (74%) and upper (73%) income households are more likely than those in lower income households (63%) to agree with this view.
• Decided Liberal supporters (70%) reflect the national average on this topic.

Twice As Many Canadian Have a Positive Impression of Paul Martin (60%) Than of Prime Minister Chretien (31%)

Twice the number of Canadians indicate they have a positive impression of Paul Martin (60%) than say they have a positive impression of Prime Minister Chretien (31%). In fact, a majority (51%) indicate they have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, while only 13% say the same of Mr. Martin.

• Among decided Liberal voters, 71% indicate a positive impression of Paul Martin, while 58% indicate a positive impression of Prime Minister Chretien.
• Regionally, a higher proportion of residents of British Columbia (64%), Quebec (62%), Ontario (61%), and Alberta (60%) say they have a positive impression of Mr. Martin. This compares to the views of those in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (56%) and Atlantic Canada 54%).
• Demographically, those who report a positive impression of Mr. Martin are most likely to be men (64% versus 57% of women), older (67% versus 48% of younger Canadians) and those in upper income households (71% versus 50% in lower income households).
• Regionally, those who have a positive impression of Mr. Chretien are most likely in Ontario (37%), Atlantic Canada (36%), Quebec (33%) or Saskatchewan/Manitoba (31%). This compares to the views of Albertans (26%) and those in British Columbia (20%). Conversely, Albertans (65%) and British Columbians (61%) are the most likely to report a negative impression of the Prime Minister.
• Demographically, those most likely to indicate a positive impression of Prime Minister Chretien are those in lower income households (38% versus 28% of upper income households) and younger (38% versus 27% of older) Canadians.

Further, while just under half (45%) of Canadians say that their impression of Paul Martin has improved over the last few months, just one in ten (11%) say this of their impression of Prime Minister Jean Chretien. Two-thirds (63%) say that in fact their impression of the Prime Minister has worsened during this time period compared to seventeen percent who say their impression of Paul Martin has worsened.

• Among decided supporters of the Liberal party, 52% indicate an improved impression of Mr. Martin, while 16% say their impression of him has worsened over the past few months.
• Regionally, those who report an improvement in their view of Mr. Martin are most likely located in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (49%), Ontario (48%), and Atlantic Canada (46%), followed by Quebec (44%), Alberta (42%), and British Columbia (41%).
• Upper income households (50% versus 41% of middle income households) and older (47% versus 41% of younger) Canadians are more likely to indicate that their impression of Mr. Martin has improved.
• Among decided Liberal supporters, 16% indicate an improved impression of Prime Minister Chretien, while 51% say their impression of him has worsened over the past few months.
• As for Prime Minister Chretien, Atlantic Canadians (17%) are the most likely to indicate that their impression of him has improved. This compares to Saskatchewan/Manitoba (13%), Ontario (12%), Alberta (10%), Quebec (8%) and British Columbia (7%). While those most likely to indicate a worsening of their impression of the Prime Minister are most likely located in Alberta (73%) and British Columbia (70%).
• Demographically, younger (18% versus 4% of older) Canadians and those from lower income households (16% versus 7% of upper income households) are more likely to say their impression of the Prime Minister has improved, while the older (74% versus 49% of younger) Canadians and those in upper income households (71% versus 53% of lower income households) are more likely to indicate their impression as worsened over the past few months.

To view the complete release and tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900