Harper Headed For 24 Sussex Drive

Toronto, ON - As the 39th general election enters its final days, it now seems almost certain that when the votes are counted on Election Day, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and his family will have a new home address at 24 Sussex Drive in Ottawa as he becomes the new Prime Minister of Canada.

A new national Ipsos Reid survey of 2000 Canadians, conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News from January 17-19th, frames the Conservatives holding 38% of federal votes (+1 point) and taking a 12-point lead over the Liberals (26%, -3 points) into the final election weekend. The NDP at 19% (+1 point) and the Green Party at 5% (unchanged) remain static in the polls.

Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Conservatives at 27% (+6 points) are now attracting nearly double the percentage of federal votes than are the Liberals (14%, -10 points) - the Bloc holds steady with 46% support (+3 points).

And while there has been speculation from many of a tightening vote scenario in the crucial province of Ontario, this trend does not appear evident: The Conservatives at 38% (-2 points) have maintained a lead (now at 4 points) over the Liberals (34%, -3 points) in this province. However, rising Liberal fortunes in the city of Toronto alone, which will not produce any new seats for the Party, has perhaps been at the root of this speculation.

Ipsos Reid's seat model projects that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would have a potential of 143-147 seats, the Liberals would have a potential of 59-63 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 39-43 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 59-63 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from January 17th to January 19th, 2006. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within +/-2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

Please open attached files to view full press release and detailed tables.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr.Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
416.324.2900
[email protected]

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
416.324.2900
[email protected]

Will Daley
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
613.688.8979
[email protected]

Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada - including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country - all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

Ipsos
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