Harper's Conservatives Hold Tenuous Lead
Amidst Haiti's Troubled Times

Toronto, ON - The swift and decisive action of the Canadian Government following the devastating earthquake that left Haiti in ruins has likely helped Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives maintain a lead, albeit a tenuous one, over Michael Ignatieff and the charging Liberals, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global National.

In December, the government was coming under increasing fire for the Afghanistan "detainee issue" and the Prime Minister's subsequent decision to prorogue (suspend) parliament until March, 2010. It would appear that these matters have helped the Liberals ride a wave of resentment and have boosted their standing in the polls. But it may also be the case that the government's seemingly flawless execution of delivering aid in response to the earthquake crisis in Haiti has deflected much of that criticism and attention, at least for the time being.

If an election were held tomorrow, 34% of decided voters would vote for the Conservative Party, down 3 points from Ipsos Reid's last sounding two months ago. In contrast, the Liberals would receive 31% of the vote, up 7 points from Liberal Leader Ignatieff's abysmal showing of 24% support in November. Jack Layton and the NDP would receive 17% of the vote (down 2 points), while the Green Party currently has the support of 8% of voters (down 2 points), nationally, and the Bloc rests at 9% of the vote. Five percent (5%) of voters are undecided.

Within Quebec, the Bloc maintains the lead at 37%, but the Liberals (30%) have twice as much support as the Tories (15%). The NDP (9%) and Green Party (9%) lag behind.

In Ontario, the Liberals (38%) and the Tories (37%) are in a statistical tie, placing them well ahead of the NDP (15%) and Green Party (8%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from January 19 to 21, 2010. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
President and CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

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