Honeymoon Officially Over For Stelmach Government
A look at voter support by region produces some telling results for the Progressive Conservatives. In Calgary, Stelmach's party has the support of 42% of decided voters. This is a decline of 8-points from the 50% support the Progressive Conservatives achieved in the last election. In contrast, the Progressive Conservatives are up 12 points in the Edmonton CMA (47% today vs. 35% in election) and up 2-points in the rest of Alberta (53% today vs. 51% in election).
One explanation for the Progressive Conservatives' Calgary problems is highlighted by a poll question that asked Albertans to assess the performance of the Stelmach government at "addressing the needs of your city or region." Only one-third (33%) of Calgary voters say they approve of the provincial government's performance at addressing the needs of their city. This compares to six-in-ten Edmonton voters (58%) and rural voters (61%).
Ed Stelmach's approval rating as Premier has also moved downward. A bare majority (54%) of Albertans say they approve of the job he is doing as Premier, down 12 points from April. Stelmach's approval rating is much lower in Calgary (42%) than in either Edmonton (58%) or the rest of Alberta (63%).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll fielded between June 12 and June 17, 2007 and is based on a randomly selected sample of 801 adult Albertans. Results based on a sample size of 801 are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Albertan population been polled. Data was statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to the 2001 Census.
All Major Parties Back to Support Levels Seen in November 2004 Election
Six months into his term as the most recent leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservatives - and the freshly minted Premier of Alberta - voter support for Ed Stelmach and his Conservatives has seen a noteworthy dip. The Stelmach-led Progressive Conservatives now have 47% of Alberta's decided vote, down 12 percentage-points from April (59%).
This returns the Progressive Conservatives to the same level of voter support they achieved in the 2004 Alberta provincial election. Moreover, all four major provincial parties' standings have returned to exactly where they were in the last election. Among decided voters, 29% say they would vote Liberal, 10% would vote New Democrat and 9% would vote for the Alberta Alliance Party.
The Kevin Taft-led Liberals maintain a distant second place, with three-in-ten (29%) stating voter support. This marks a gain from the results obtained September and November of 2006 (22%), and up 11 percentage-points from this time last year (18%). The Alberta New Democrats received support from one-in-ten (10%), seeing a four point increase from last December (6%), a drop of three percentage-points from this time last year (13%), and no change from April 2007. The Alberta Alliance (9%) again sees a slight increase (up 3%) and the Green Party (5%) overall sees little change from April (5%), December 2006 (4%), and this time last year (5%).
PCs Lose Most Ground In Calgary
On closer examination, Tory support by region yields significant findings. In Calgary, the Stelmach-led PCs garner the support of 42% of decided voters, marking a modest 8-point dip from the last provincial election (50%). In contrast, the Progressive Conservatives are up 12 points in the Edmonton CMA (47% today vs. 35% in election) and up 2-points in the rest of Alberta (53% today vs. 51% in election).
Some light may be shed on these results by the poll question that asked Albertans to assess the Stelmach government's performance at "addressing the needs of your city or region." Only one-third (33%) of Calgary voters say they approve of the provincial government's performance at addressing the needs of their city, compared to six-in-ten Edmonton voters (58%) and rural voters (61%).
Overall, one-half (51%) of Albertans as a whole "approve" of the government's performance at "addressing the needs of your city or region" (12% "strongly approve," 38% "moderately approve") while more than four-in-ten (44%) "disapprove" (21% "strongly disapprove," 24% "moderately disapprove").
Overall Approval Ratings Also Down With Bare Majority Approving of Premier Stelmach's Performance To Date
Premier Stelmach's own approval ratings have slipped from our last sounding, with a bare majority (54%) of Albertans saying they approve of his performance as Premier, down 12 percentage-points from April. Of that, 15% "strongly approve" (down 6-points) while 39% "moderately approve" (down 6-points). Conversely, less than one-third (33%, up 17-points) disapprove of his performance (14% "strongly" and 20% "moderately disapprove"), while slightly more than one-in-ten (13%) are unsure of his performance, indicating that many Albertans may be reserving judgment until the new Premier has been in tenure for more than six months. Notably, Stelmach's approval rating is much lower in Calgary (42%) than in either Edmonton (58%) or the rest of Alberta (63%).
For more information on this press release, please contact:
Cory Davison
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(403) 294-5614
[email protected]
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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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