Majority Still Out Of Reach For Harper

Toronto, ON - Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives remain in the lead but continue to fall short of the numbers they need to form a majority government, according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for Canwest and Global TV.

The survey finds that 39% of Canadians would support the Conservatives if a federal election were held today compared to 29% for the Liberals. This result falls shy of the alleged 40% majority threshold the Conservatives garnered last month in the immediate aftermath of the release of the federal budget, and just three points ahead of the Conservative's 36% turnout during the 2006 election. The Liberals, meanwhile, are one point lower than their share of the 2006 electorate. The NDP (16%), Bloc Quebecois (9% nationally and 34% in Quebec) and the Green Party (7%) remain fairly consistent with results seen over the last month of polling.

Ontario and Quebec, which hold the keys to a majority government, have been volatile territory over the last two elections. In Ontario, the Conservatives are up five points from one week ago- continuing their upward trend in the province. The Liberals, meanwhile, have declined by five points in Ontario. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois have rebounded four points this week to 34%, while the Conservatives have declined by three points to 28%, and the Liberals have continued their slide in La Belle Province, dropping by one point to 20%.

With volatile numbers hovering near the 2006 election results, the landscape remains fraught with uncertainty for all parties.

Conservative support has improved in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48%, up nine points since April 12), Ontario (42%, up five points) and Alberta (70%, up two points), while declining in British Columbia (30%, down nine points), Quebec (28%, down three points) and Atlantic Canada (28%, down three points).

The Liberal take, meanwhile, has improved in British Columbia (34%, up two points) and Atlantic Canada (46%, up three points), while declining in every other region, most steeply in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (21%, down eight points), followed by Ontario (35%, down five points), Alberta (14%, down four points) and Quebec (20%, down one point).

Support for the NDP has grown in British Columbia (27%, up five points) and Atlantic Canada (24%, up three points) and remained consistent in Ontario (13%, up one point) and Quebec (13%, up one point), while declining in Alberta (8%, down three points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (20%, down three points).

Support for the Green Party improved by six points in Alberta (8%), one point in British Columbia (7%) and remained the same in Ontario (10%), while declining in Atlantic Canada (1%, down seven points), Quebec (4%, down two points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (8%, down one point).

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (41%) over the Liberals (28%) by a 13-point margin. Women also favour the Conservatives (36%) over the Liberals (29%), but by a narrower margin (seven points). The NDP draws higher support among women (17%) than among men (14%), as does the Bloc (women: 10%; men, 8%). The Green Party divides its support equally between men (8%) and women (7%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from April 17-19, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 846 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.