Manning Most Popular Choice For Canadians As Next Alliance Leader Long and Day Neck and Neck As Second Choice With Long Showing Momentum

PC Supporters Would Choose Manning (34%) Over Tom Long (21%) and Stockwell Day (14%) In Ontario, Manning (33%) Preferred To Long (19%) and Day (15%)

Toronto, ON - A recent Angus Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll reveals that Preston Manning is Canadians' most popular choice as the first elected leader of the Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance Party. Among all Canadians, one third (33%) say they would vote for Preston Manning if they were able to vote in the leadership race. Among those who identify themselves as supporters of the Canadian Alliance, Manning (35%) and Stockwell Day (30%) are virtually neck and neck. Meanwhile among current PC supporters, Manning (34%) is in the lead with Tom Long (21%) edging out Stockwell Day (14%) in the race for second place. In the important electoral battleground of Ontario, Manning receives support from one-third (33%) of voters, 14 points ahead of second place candidate Tom Long (19%) and 18 points ahead of Stockwell Day (15%).

These are the findings of an Angus Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between June 1 and June 7, 2000. These results are compared with the results of polls conducted in late May (May 18-25, 2000), early May (May 4-10, 2000) and late April (April 24-29, 2000). The polls are based on a randomly selected sample of 1,500 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

A Third (33%) of Canadians Would Choose Preston Manning As Leader of The Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance If They Were Able To Participate In Leadership Vote

If Canadians in general were able to vote in the election to choose the leader of the Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance, Preston Manning would be their choice for leader. One-third (33%) of Canadians say they would vote for Preston Manning which is more than twice the number who would support second place candidates Tom Long (15%) and Stockwell Day (14%). Keith Martin comes a distant fourth with only 6 percent support.

Since tracking of these data began in late April 2000 Manning's support has remained relatively stable while the support for Stockwell Day has dropped steadily from 18 percent to 14 percent. In contrast, support for Tom Long has steadily increased from 10 percent in late April to 15 percent in early June. Clearly, among the Canadian electorate Tom Long has created a more favourable impression of his candidacy than has Stockwell Day.

• Manning receives higher support among younger (41%) as opposed to older Canadians (28%). In contrast, Tom Long receives higher support among older (19%) as opposed to younger (10%) Canadians. Stockwell Day's support is largely even across age groups.
• Men (34%) and women (32%) are equally likely to support Manning, while support for Day and Long is higher among men (18% - Day, 18% - Long) than women (10% - Day, 11% - Long).

Among Alliance Supporters, Manning (35%) and Stockwell Day (30%) Virtually Neck and Neck

Among those Canadians who identify themselves as current supporters of the Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance, 35 percent would vote for Manning while 30 percent would vote for Stockwell Day to be leader of the new party. Tom Long receives the support of approximately one in five (19%) Alliance supporters while Keith Martin receives only 6 percent support.

Similar to the national trend, Manning's support within his own party has remained relatively stable over time while support for Stockwell Day has dropped seven points from 37 percent in late April to 30 percent in early June. Meanwhile, Tom Long has seen his support rise over time from 16 percent in late April to 22 percent in late May. However early June saw a small drop in support to 19 percent.

PC Supporters Would Choose Manning (34%) Over Tom Long (21%) and Stockwell Day (14%)

Preston Manning remains the favourite (34%) among those Canadians who say they support the Progressive Conservatives but Tom Long (21%) is ahead of Stockwell Day (14%) among this group of voters.

The support for the candidates has fluctuated considerably over the tracking period but the overall trend suggests that Tom Long is gaining support among Progressive Conservatives at the expense of both Preston Manning and Stockwell Day.

In Ontario, Manning (33%) Preferred To Long (19%) and Day (15%)

In the important electoral battleground of Ontario, Manning (33%) has a 14 point lead over second place contender Tom Long (19%) and is 18 points ahead of third place Stockwell Day (15%).

• In Tom Long's home province, his support has increased from 12 percent in late April to 19 percent in the current sounding. Meanwhile support for Stockwell Day has dropped from 19 percent to 15 percent and support for Preston Manning has remained largely stable over the same period.
• In Alberta, the home province of both Day and Manning, there has been a large shift in support away from Stockwell Day towards Preston Manning. In late April, Day's support (48%) in the province was twice that of Manning's (24%). However over the tracking period, Day's support has fallen 13 points while Manning's has increased 16 points. Currently, Day (35%) trails Manning (40%) by five points.
• In Quebec, Manning receives 28 percent support compared with 12 percent for Tom Long and 5 percent for Stockwell Day.
• In the other provinces, Manning leads the competition by no less than 15 points.

To view the complete media release please download the PDF file.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900