McGuinty Liberals Close Gap on Leading Tories
Since early December the Premier and his government have mounted an aggressive response to the Opposition Conservatives challenging them to come forward with their own energy plan, touting the business benefits of the HST which will lead to lower consumer prices, providing a 10% rebate on "tough but necessary medicine" rising energy costs, extolling the virtues of the economic and job fortunes at hand for the province.
If the provincial election were to be held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak would receive 38% of the vote among decided voters (down 3 points), while Premier Dalton McGuinty's Liberals would garner 35% of the vote (up 3 points). Andrea Horwath and the NDP would receive 17% support (down 3 points), while Mike Schreiner's Green party sits at 9% support (up 2 points). One in ten (10%) Ontarians remains undecided.
Examining the vote by region reveals that the Liberals lead in the GTA and Northern Ontario, while the Tories have the edge in Southwest, Central and Eastern Ontario:
- In the vote-rich GTA, the Liberals (45%) hold a solid lead over the Progressive Conservatives (32%), followed by the NDP (15%) and the Green Party (8%).
- In Southwest Ontario, the PCs (43%) hold a commanding lead over the Liberals (24%), who are tied with the NDP (24%). The Green Party lags behind (9%).
- In Central Ontario, the PCs (44%) maintain a large lead over the Liberals (26%), NDP (18%) and Green Party (12%).
- In Eastern Ontario, the PCs (57%) have more than twice the support of the Liberal Party (25%), while the Green Party (12%) and NDP (7%) trail.
- In Northern Ontario, the Liberals (41%) lead the NDP (34%), but the Tories (19%) and Green Party (5%) are well behind.
In essence, it's a battle of the GTA vs. the rest of Ontario. In the GTA the Liberals lead by a margin of 13 points. In the rest of the province, the Tories lead by a margin of 17 points.
The data also reveal deep generational and gender divides when it comes to vote preference:
- The PCs have the support of 49% of decided voters among those aged 55 and older, while the Liberals (31%), NDP (12%) and Green Party (7%) split the rest of the vote.
- Among Ontarians aged 35 to 54 the Tory (42%) lead over the Grits (34%) shrinks, while both the NDP (16%) and Green Party (9%) improve their showing.
- Among those aged 18 to 34, however, the Liberals (41%) have a commanding lead over the NDP (23%), Tories (22%) and Green Party (13%).
- Men are disproportionately favouring the PCs (47%) over the Liberals (29%), NDP (15%) and Green Party (9%).
- Conversely, women are favouring the Liberal Party (41%) over the PCs (30%), NDP (19%) and Green Party (10%).
(Click to enlarge image)
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global Television from January 4 to 20, 2011. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
About Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.
Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2009, Ipsos generated global revenues of e943.7 million ($1.33 billion U.S.).
Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.
Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext - Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP
