At Mid-Point in Campaign Ontario Liberals (49%) Hold Commanding Lead Over Governing Conservatives (35%)

Toronto, ONTARIO - After a week in which Premier Eves could not immediately provide the costs for Conservative campaign promises, the Liberals were endorsed by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, Agricultural Minister Helen Johns admitted to being too busy campaigning to stay on top of the tainted meat scandal and the uproar over the Conservative campaign calling Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty "an evil, reptilian kitten-eater from another planet," new polling conducted by Ipsos-Reid for CFTO, Newstalk 1010 CFRB and The Globe and Mail, between Wednesday, September 10th and Sunday, September 14th 2003 shows that the opposition Liberals (49%) hold a commanding lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives (35%), while the NDP (12%) and the Green Party (2%) continue to trail the two frontrunners, among decided voters. However, at this point in the campaign, it should be noted that one in six (17%) indicate they are undecided.

The Conservatives certainly have their work cut out for them at the mid-point of the campaign with the Liberals showing a 14-point lead heading into next Tuesday's debate. At the mid-point of the 1999 campaign under Premier Mike Harris, the governing Conservatives had already erased an `off-season' 12 point lead by the Liberals and were leading by four points (Conservatives 45%, Liberals 41%, NDP 12%) heading into the debate. Clearly, that is not the case this time out.

The Liberal message of `Choose Change' also appears to be reflective of the mood of the electorate. As has been the case in the recent Ipsos-Reid polling, six in ten (61%, up 1 point from August) Ontarians say that it is time for another political party to take over and run the province, while one in three (33%, up 1 point from August) feel that the Conservative government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected.

And while the Conservatives have attempted to persuade the voters that Dalton McGuinty is `still not up to the job', it appears that Ontarians have not taken hold of this viewpoint fully. In fact, on the question of who would make the `best Premier', Ernie Eves (36%, up 1 point from August) is just ahead of Dalton McGuinty (31%, up 1 point), while 16% (up 3 points) opt for Howard Hampton on this measure. In 1999, at the mid-point in the campaign and heading into the debate, former Conservative Premier Mike Harris was the choice of 49% of Ontarians to be the `best Premier' compared with 32% who chose Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty and 12% who chose Howard Hampton. As such, where Mike Harris led Dalton McGuinty at the mid-point of the 1999 campaign by 17 points on this measure, Premier Ernie Eves leads by just 5 points.

Further on the issue of impression of the leaders and their parties, on the net impression momentum score, Ernie Eves and the Conservatives continue to receive a negative momentum score of net -19 (improved impression 16% - worsened impression 35%) - similar to where Bob Rae's NDP government was at the mid-point of the 1995 campaign. This net score is about the same as it was in August (net -18). Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals receive a net momentum score of +7 (improved impression 25% - worsened impression 18%), up from the net score of +4 recorded in August. Meanwhile, Howard Hampton and the NDP receive a net momentum score of +8 (improved impression 19% - worsened impression 11%), up form a net score of +5 in August.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll conducted between Wednesday, September 10th and Sunday, September 14th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 770 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 2001 Census data.

Dalton McGuinty and the opposition Liberals (49%) appear to hold a commanding lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives (35%) among decided voters at the mid point in the election campaign. The NDP (12%) and the Green Party (2%) continue to trail the two frontrunners. However, at this point in the campaign, it should be noted that one in six (17%) say they are undecided - down from 20% in our August sounding. Another four percent say they will not vote.

• Regionally, the Liberals are leading over the Conservatives in the Southwest (51% versus 31%), Hamilton/Niagara region (51% versus 26%), and the GTA (50% versus 35%), while the two frontrunners are closer in Northern Ontario (40% versus 35%) and Eastern Ontario (Liberals 46%, Conservatives 45%) where they are in a dead heat. NDP support is highest in Howard Hampton's home region of Northern Ontario (21%) and is lowest in Eastern Ontario (3%).
• Young adult voters (56%) are significantly more likely than are middle aged (46%) or older (44%) to support the Liberals, while older Ontarians (47%) are significantly more likely to express support for the Conservatives than are either their middle aged (36%) or young adult (24%) counterparts. NDP support is significantly stronger among middle aged (14%) and young adult (13%) Ontarians than among older Ontarians (6%).
• The Liberals hold a slight lead among women voters (51% versus 46% of men), while the Conservatives hold a slight lead among men (38% versus 32% of women).
• University graduates (53%) and those with a post-secondary education/some university (50%) are significantly more likely to express support for the Liberals than are those with a high school or less education (39%), while those in the later group (45%) are significantly more likely than are university graduates (30%) to indicate support for the Conservatives.
• There is no significant difference in support levels across household income groups.
• Looking at just those who say they are absolutely certain (59% of Ontarians) and very likely (19% of Ontarians) to actually go out and cast a ballot on election day, the party standings do not change significantly. Among this group the Liberals (48%) continue to hold a significant lead over the Conservatives (37%), the NDP (12%) and the Green Party (2%). Among the one-fifth (21%) of Ontarians who say they are undecided or will not vote, over one-third (37%) say they are not very or not at all likely to get out and vote on election day.

The Liberal message of `Choose Change' also appears to be reflective of the mood of the electorate. As has been the case in the most recent Ipsos-Reid polling, six in ten (61%, up 1 point from August) Ontarians say that it is time for another political party to take over and run the province, while one in three (33%, up 1 point from August) feel that the Conservative government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected.

• Regionally, the change sentiment is highest among residents of Hamilton/Niagara (72%) and the GTA (66%), followed by the North (59%), the Southwest (56%), while Dalton McGuinty's home region of Eastern Ontario (48%) is less likely to hold this position -- the belief that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected is highest here (46%).
• Eight in ten (84%) current Conservative supporters (35% of decided voters) say that the government should be re-elected, however 14% of their own current supports say that it is time for a change.
• While a majority of both genders believe that it is time for a change in government, women (66%) are more likely to hold this view than are men (55%). On the flip side, men (38%) are more likely to feel that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected than women (26%).
• University graduates (67%) are more likely to hold the view that it is time for a change in government, than do those with a high school or less education (55%).
• Young adult (65%) Ontarians are more likely to express the view that it is time for a change than are older Ontarians (55%).
• There are no significant differences on this question between different household income groups.

And while the Conservatives have attempted to persuade the voters that Dalton McGuinty is `still not up to the job' since his last campaign in 1999, it appears that Ontarians have not taken hold of this viewpoint fully. In fact, on the question of who would make the `best Premier', Ernie Eves (36%, up 1 point from August) is just ahead of Dalton McGuinty (31%, up 1 point), while 16% (up 3 points) opt for Howard Hampton on this measure. In 1999, at the mid-point in the campaign and heading into the debate, former Conservative Premier Mike Harris was the choice of 49% of Ontarians to be the `best Premier' compared with 32% who chose Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty and 12% who chose Howard Hampton. As such, where Mike Harris led Dalton McGuinty at the mid-point of the 1999 campaign by 17 points, Premier Ernie Eves leads by just 5 points.

• Ernie Eves leads Dalton McGuinty on the `best Premier' measure among the residents of Eastern Ontario (46% versus 28%) and the Southwest (36% versus 28%) while they are in a virtual tie in Hamilton/Niagara (McGuinty 35%, Eves 33%) and GTA (McGuinty 35%; Eves 35%). In Northern Ontario, there is a virtual three-way tie with Howard Hampton (28%) on top followed by Ernie Eves (26%) and Dalton McGuinty (22%).
• Mr. Eves does receive higher levels of support as `best Premier' among his own party's current supporters (84%) than either Mr. Hampton (61% of NDP voters) or Mr. McGuinty (61% of Liberal voters) among supporters of their parties.
• Mr. Eves receives significantly higher support on this measure from those with a high school or less education (43%) than among university graduates (30%), while Mr. McGuinty receives significantly higher level of support as `best Premier' from Ontarians with a university degree (38%) than among those with a post-secondary education/some university (28%) or those with a high school or less education (27%).
• Mr. Eves is viewed by significantly more older (42%) Ontarians than by young adult Ontarians (31%) as the `best Premier.'
• Mr. Eves is also more likely to be selected as `best Premier' by men (40%) than by women (33%).

Further on the issue of impression of the leaders and their parties, on the net impression momentum score, Ernie Eves and the Conservatives continue to receive a negative momentum score of net -19 (improved impression 16% - worsened impression 35%) - similar to where Bob Rae's NDP government was at the mid-point of the 1995 campaign. This net score is about the same as it was in August (net -18). Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals receive a net momentum score of +7 (improved impression 25% - worsened impression 18%), up from the net score of +4 recorded in August. Meanwhile, Howard Hampton and the NDP receive a net momentum score of +8 (improved impression 19% - worsened impression 11%), up form a net score of +5 in August.

• Ernie Eves and the Conservatives receive negative momentum scores across all regions and socio-demographic groups. Their best score is recorded among residents of Eastern Ontario (net nil; improved 26% - worsened 26%) and those with a high school education or less (net -6; improved 20% - worsened 26%), while their lowest scores are recorded among residents of Hamilton/Niagara (net -30; improved 10% - worsened 40%) and Northern Ontario (net -28; improved 14% - worsened 42%).
• Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals receive positive momentum scores across all regions and most socio-demographic groups. Their highest score is recorded among older Ontarians (net +13; improved 32% - worsened 18%), university graduates (net +12; improved 29% - worsened 17%), and in the GTA (net +11; improved 28% - worsened 17%), while their lowest net scores are recorded among residents of the North (net +2; improved 25% - worsened 23%) and young adults (net nil; improved 18% - worsened 18%).
• Howard Hampton and the NDP receive positive momentum across all socio-economic groups and most regions. They receive their highest score among residents of middle-income households (net +14; improved 23% - worsened 9%) and in the GTA (net +13; improved 22% - worsened 9%), while their only negative net score is recorded among residents of Eastern Ontario (net -4; improved 13% - worsened 17%).

To view the release and detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900