Mid-Way Through The Race: Liberals (32%) And Conservatives (31%) Neck-And-Neck

Seat Projection Model Suggests Conservatives 114-118, Liberals 104-108, Bloc Quebecois 61-65, NDP 21-25 -- If Vote Held Tomorrow Conservatives Could Form A Minority Government If Vote Held Tomorrow, But Majority (61%) Is Opposed To A Potential Conservative/Bloc Minority Union

10 June 2004

Toronto, ON - A new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today shows that at the mid-point of the election campaign the horse-race between the two major parties is neck-and-neck with the Federal Liberals at 32% and the new Conservatives at 31% (both unchanged from Ipsos-Reid's last sounding).

Meanwhile, the federal NDP comes in with 16% of the decided vote (down 1 point) and the Green Party comes in with 7% (up 1 point). A very small portion (3%) of decided voters would cast their support for some "other" party.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attracts 50% of the decided vote (up 5 points), leading the Liberals (24%, down 4 points) by an impressive 26 point margin.

However, when the seat projection model is applied, the new numbers show that the potential of a minority Conservative government is in the offing with the Conservatives having between 114-118 seats compared to the Liberals having between 104-108 seats.

The Ontario electorate still appears extremely volatile - in this substantive poll the Liberals now lead with 40% support compared to 35% for the Conservatives, as the NDP slump to 17% in the province. It would appear, at this stage, that polarization is taking place.

Another part of the poll indicates that while the Conservatives may be first past the post with a minority there is considerable resistance to the idea of a potential Conservative/Bloc union that would solidify a minority government - a majority (61%) are opposed to this scenario. But a majority (57%) would be accepting of a Liberal led minority government supported by the NDP.

When thinking of the up-coming federal election, most Canadians (59%) are "absolutely certain" they will vote (up slightly from 56% three weeks ago). Of note, is the higher proportion of decided Liberal voters (67%, up 12 points from 55%) who now say they are "absolutely certain" they will vote in the upcoming election compared to three weeks ago.

Fewer Canadians today (55%, down 17 points from 72%) believe the Liberals will form Canada's next government than thought so at the last sounding. Conversely, substantially more Canadians now believe the Conservatives will form Canada's next government (31%, up 13 points from 18%).

Four in ten Canadians (38%, down 9 points from 47%) choose Paul Martin, leader of the federal Liberal Party, as the major federal party leader that would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, while 30% (up 7 points from 23%) believe Stephen Harper, leader of the new Conservative Party, and 14% believe Jack Layton, leader of the New Democratic Party, would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (up 1 point from 13%).

These are the findings of two Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail polls conducted between June 4th and June 8th, 2004. For the questions regarding vote intentions, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians was interviewed between June 4th and June 8th, 2004. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. For all other attitudinal questions, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed between June 4th and June 7th, 2004. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error for each of these surveys will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Please open the attached PDF files to view the entire release and detailed tables.

For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit:

Ipsos-Reid Seat Projection Model