Conservatives (37%, +1) Hold Narrow Lead with Liberals (34%, +2) Close Behind

Green Party (7%, -4) Loses Momentum, NDP (15%) Stalled, Bloc Rallying (+1 to 5% Nationally, +3 to 22% in Quebec)

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  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, Oct 1, 2019 — The election campaign remains deadlocked as a two-party race as the Conservative and Liberal Parties pull away from their other rivals, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

If an election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided voters in Canada would vote for Andrew Scheer and the Conservative Party (up 1 point since last week), while 34% would vote for Justin Trudeau and the incumbent Liberals (up 2 points), who are beginning to reverse the immediate damage done by the Prime Minister’s recent photo/video scandal. The NDP under Jagmeet Singh is stalled at 15% of the decided vote, nationally, unchanged from last week.

The rising tides of the two front-running parties has largely come at the expense of Elizabeth May and the Green Party, who are down 4 points from last week and now sit at 7% of the vote, nationally. The People’s Party led by Maxime Bernier would receive just 2% support from decided voters. One percent (1%) would vote for some other party.

The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, is on the march, and would receive 5% of the vote nationally (up 1 point), or 22% in Quebec (up 3 points). One in ten (10%) voters remains undecided, while 6% say they would not vote or would spoil their ballot.

The race in Canada’s three most populous provinces is either tight, or tightening:

  • In British Columbia, the Conservatives are just one point ahead of the Liberals, a statistical tie.
  • In Ontario, the Liberals are just two points ahead of the Conservatives, also a statistical tie.
  • In Quebec, the gap between the Liberal party and its adversaries is shrinking, although the Liberals still have a double-digit lead over the Conservatives and Bloc.  

The race is also interesting among other key demographic groups:

  • Among women, the Conservatives (34%) and Liberals (34%) are tied, while the NDP (19%), Green Party (8%), Bloc (3%) and People’s Party (2%) trail. Trudeau has yet to regain the advantage among women voters.
  • Among men, the Conservatives (40%) have a six-point lead over the Liberals (34%), while other parties such as the NDP (11%), Bloc (7%), Green (6%) and People’s Party (2%) are further behind.
  • Among those aged 55+ (who are the most likely cohort to vote on E-Day), the Tories (42%) have the advantage over the Liberals (35%), NDP (10%), Greens (6%), Bloc (5%) and People’s Party (2%).
  • Among those aged 35-54, the Tories (42%) have their most significant lead, besting the Liberals (32%), NDP (13%), Greens (7%), Bloc (5%) and People’s Party (2%).
  • Among those aged 18-34, the Liberals (34%) are well ahead of the Tories (25%) and NDP (25%) who are tied for second position, followed by the Greens (8%), Bloc (4%) and People’s Party (3%). Younger voters report much less interest in the election campaign and lower willingness to vote on October 21st.

Further demonstrating that the Liberals are beginning to right the ship, 43% now approve (8% strongly/35% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau, up 3 points since last week. Approval is highest in Quebec (50%), Atlantic Canada (49%), and Ontario (46%), but lower in British Columbia (43%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (28%), and Alberta (24%).

Further, 38% believe the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election, up 2 points since last week. Quebecers (45%) and Atlantic Canadians (42%) are the most likely to feel this way, followed by those in Ontario (41%) and BC (41%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (24%) and Alberta (17%).

Andrew Scheer continues to run behind his party, with just 33% (up 2 points) believing he would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, from among Canada’s party leaders. Despite a lead in the popular vote, Scheer remains tied with Justin Trudeau (33%, unchanged) as the person Canadians think would make the best Prime Minister. Jagmeet Singh (14%, unchanged) and Elizabeth May (12%, down 2 points) are also tied, while fewer think that Maxime Bernier (5%, down 1 point) or Yves-François Blanchet (2%, unchanged) would make the best Prime Minister.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 27 and 30, 2019, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1489 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources. Respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe (weighting efficiency = 63.9%). The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2019, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. Detailed tabular data tables can be found here: https://ipsosintelligence.ca/canadiancontext/

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD

CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs

416-324-2001

Darrell.Bricker@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people. Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs

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