Trudeau Approval Rebounds to 50%, But PC Victory in Ontario Brings Halo and Advantage to Federal Tories

Federal Conservatives (36%) ahead of Liberals (32%), NDP (20%), Bloc (5%) and Others (7%) Trail

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, June 16, 2018 — Despite rebounding approval ratings for the Trudeau government, the recent victory for the Progressive Conservative Party in Ontario appears to be having a halo effect on their federal cousins, as the Conservative Party of Canada once again moves ahead of the Liberals in national popular vote, buoyed by a double-digit lead for the Tories in Ontario.

According to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News, fully one half (50%) of Canadians approve (12% strongly/39% somewhat) of the performance of Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government, while half (50%) disapprove (23% strongly/26% somewhat) of their performance. The federal government’s approval rating is up 6 points from a low of 44% at the end of March, likely a function of Canadians’ positive assessment regarding how Justin Trudeau is handling his U.S. counterpart amidst an historic trade dispute, as revealed in an Ipsos poll for Global News released Friday.

These stronger approval ratings are not translating into vote support, however. If a federal election were to happen tomorrow, the Scheer-led Conservative Party would receive 36% of the decided popular vote nationally (up 1 point), while the Trudeau Liberals would receive 32% of the vote (down 4 points). Jagmeet Singh’s NDP would receive 20% support (unchanged), generally unable to parlay their success in Ontario to the rest of the country. The Bloc would receive 5% of the vote nationally (up 2 points) while other parties, including the Green Party, would receive 7% of the vote (up 1 point).

The national advantage for the federal Tories appears to be largely a function of a ten-point lead in Ontario over the NDP and an eleven-point lead over the Liberals, where the Tory brand has some momentum on the heels of Doug Ford’s victory in the recent Ontario General Election, while the Liberal brand is severely tarnished following the party’s worst showing in decades.

  • In Ontario, the Conservatives (38%) are well ahead of the NDP (28%) and Liberals (27%). Nearly one in ten (8%) would vote for some other federal party.
  • In Quebec, the Liberals (41%) are well ahead of the Bloc Quebecois (21%), Conservatives (19%), NDP (14%) and others (5%).
  • In BC, the Liberals (41%) lead the Tories (32%), NDP (16%) and others (11%).
  • In Alberta, the Conservative (60%) lead over the Liberals (23%), NDP (10%) and others (7%) is massive.
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (50%) also have a commanding lead over the Liberals (27%), NDP (15%) and others (9%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (41%) retain their traditional advantage ahead of the Conservatives (29%), NDP (26%) and others (3%).

While the Ontario-driven inertia towards the Conservatives and away from the Liberals could be a temporary honeymoon effect, for the moment the federal Liberals are struggling to retain their position among many key demographic groups:

  • Among Millennials aged 18-34, the NDP (30%) and Liberals (29%) are tied, with the Tories (24%) only slightly back. The Bloc (6%) and others (11%) are further behind.
  • Among Gen Xers aged 35-54, the Tories (39%) have the advantage over the Liberals (32%), NDP (16%), the Bloc (5%) and others (7%).
  • Boomers aged 55+ are more solidly in the Tory camp (41%) over the Liberals (34%), NDP (16%), the Bloc (3%) or others (5%).
  • Women are more evenly distributed between the Liberals (35%) and the Conservatives (31%), with the NDP (22%), Bloc (5%) and others (8%) playing catch-up.
  • Men remain the core constituency of the Conservatives (41%), who run well ahead of the Liberals (29%), NDP (18%), Bloc (5%) and others (7%) who lag behind.

© 2018, Ipsos Limited Partnership
This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between June 13 and 15, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources. Quota sampling and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, CEO
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001

Sean Simpson, Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs, Canada
+1 416 324 2002

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The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs