Ipsos Correctly Predicts Tory Majority in Ontario, Popular Vote Share

Ipsos/Global News E-Day Poll Accurately Captures Voting Attitudes and Behaviour

Ipsos Correctly Predicts Tory Majority in Ontario, Popular Vote Share

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker CEO, Global
Get in touch

Toronto, Ontario, June 8, 2018 — Ipsos polling, conducted exclusively for Global News, has correctly predicted a majority Progressive Conservative victory on Election Day. Ipsos’ final poll, conducted from June 3 to 5 and released on June 6, was a poll of 1,501 Ontarians eligible to vote, including both online (n = 1000) and dual-frame telephone live-operator interviews (n = 501).

The table below outlines Ipsos’ estimates of the popular-vote share each party was projected to receive on Election Day, compared to the Elections Ontario data as of 11am on June 8. Ipsos was well within the credibility interval of +/- 3 points for each party in its final prediction poll.

 

Ipsos Prediction of Popular Vote

Elections Ontario Preliminary Results

Progressive Conservatives

39%

40%

Liberals

19%

20%

NDP

36%

34%

Other (including Green)

6%

6%

 

Ipsos also ran an Election-Day poll for Global news via its online panel on June 7. The results of this poll of n = 4,151 voters was also very close to the actual Election Ontario results, and helped to explain the attitudes and motivations that drove voting behaviour on E-Day.

 

E-Day Popular Vote Estimates

Elections Ontario Preliminary Results

Progressive Conservatives

39%

40%

Liberals

20%

20%

NDP

35%

34%

Other (including Green)

6%

6%

 

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, CEO
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
Darrell.Bricker@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of Canadian American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs is the polling partner for Global News. Internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry. With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker CEO, Global

Society