NDP (37%, +2) Now Tied with PCs (36%, -4) as Two-Horse Race Intensifies, Liberals (23%, +1) Well Behind

NDP (36%) and PCs (35%) Tied in Critical 905 Region of the GTA

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson SVP, Canada, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, May 22, 2018 — The NDP’s momentum has continued (+2) as the Progressive Conservatives have stumbled (-4) in an intensifying two-horse race, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

If the election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided eligible voters in Ontario would vote for the NDP, up 2 points since last week, while 36% would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, down 4 points since last week. The Liberals are holding relatively steady at 23% of the popular vote, up 1 point, while 4% would vote for some other party (including the Green Party) and nearly two in ten are either unsure (12%) or say they wouldn’t vote (5%).

The 4-point Tory Tumble province wide is largely driven by eroding support in the 905-region of Toronto, where a double-digit lead has evaporated and the Tories now find themselves in a statistical tie with the rallying NDP:
• In the 905 region of Toronto, 36% would vote for the NDP while 35% would vote for the PCs. One in four (27%) would support the Liberals.
• In the 416, Toronto proper, the Tories (37%) and NDP (34%) are also statistically tied, with the Liberals (27%) trailing in third place.
• In SW Ontario, the NDP (43%) holds on to its lead over the PCs (35%) and Liberals (15%).
• In Central Ontario, the PCs (43%) have a narrow lead over the NDP (40%) and Liberals (14%).
• In Eastern Ontario, the Tories (40%) lead the NDP (30%) and the Liberals (28%).
• In Northern Ontario, the NDP (41%) holds on to its solid lead over the PCs (29%) and Liberals (28%).

The link between demographics and vote preference is very clear in this election:
Men favour the Tories (43%) over the NDP (33%) and Liberals (20%).
Women strongly prefer the NDP (40%) over the PCs (29%) and Liberals (26%).
• Those under 35 prefer the NDP (39%) to the Liberals (34%) or Tories (22%).
• Those aged 35-54 lean towards the PCs (45%) over the NDP (36%) and Liberals (15%).
• Those aged 55+ are leaning slightly towards the PCs (39%) over the NDP (36%), while the Liberals (22%) trail.

Four in ten (40%) Ontarians believe that Andrea Horwath and the NDP are gaining the most popularity and momentum in this election, while 34% say that title belongs to the PCs and Doug Ford. Just one in ten (12%) believe the Liberals and Kathleen Wynne have the momentum. One in ten (14%) say no party has momentum at the moment.

Despite the fact that the NDP continues to gain while the PCs have witnessed their first measurable stumble in the horserace, a majority (55%) of Ontarians still believe the PCs will win the election, while two in ten believe the Liberals (20%) or the NDP (20%) will win. Interestingly, 5% think some other party will win the election. Moreover, most NDP voters don’t think the NDP will actually win:
Among NDP voters, 48% think the PCs will win, while 38% think the NDP will win and 13% think the Liberals will win.
Among PC voters, 90% think the PCs will win, while few think the Liberals (6%) or NDP (4%) will win.
Among Liberal voters, a majority (53%) thinks they’ll win, while fewer think the PCs (29%) or NDP (18%) will win.

© 2018, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication.  Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data.  Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.


About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 18 to 21, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1000 Ontarians eligible to vote and aged 18+ from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Global
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2001
[email protected]
Sean Simpson
Vice President, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
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The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson SVP, Canada, Public Affairs