Liberals (32%, -3) Stumble, Tories (36%, +1) Now Ahead Amid Trudeau Controversy Over Racially-Insensitive Photo

More Canadians Accept His Apology (45%) Than Think Trudeau Should Resign (20%); Remainder (35%) Somewhere In Between

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  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, Sep 24, 2019 — Momentum has shifted away from the Liberals amid Justin Trudeau’s brownface controversy, with the popular-vote deadlock now broken and the Tories opening a four-point lead over the Liberals, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News.

If the election were held tomorrow, 36% of decided voters would vote for the Conservative Party (up 1 point since last week), while 32% would vote for the Liberals (down 3 points). The NDP has edged up to 15% of the popular vote (up 1 point), while the Green Party (11%, up 2 points) continues to edge higher. The Bloc would receive 19% in Quebec, or 4% nationally, while 2% of Canadians would vote for the People’s Party. One (1%) percent would vote for some other party. Nearly two in ten (17%) are either unsure of who they would vote for (11%) or admit that they would not vote (6%).

Most damaging for the Liberals is that the eight-point lead they enjoyed in Ontario last week has evaporated, and they are now tied with the Conservatives in this seat-rich province. Notably, voting intentions in Quebec have not fluctuated much since before the scandal, with the Liberals still well ahead within la belle province.

Most Canadians have seen the news which has devastated the Liberal campaign: 76% of Canadians have seen the photo(s)/videos of Prime Minister Trudeau published by TIME and Global News, while 14% have heard about them but haven’t seen them. Just one in ten (10%) Canadians are unaware of the story.

While two in ten (20%) Canadians say that that the Prime Minister’s behaviour is inexcusable and that he should resign (rising to four in ten Tory voters), most are taking a more lenient position. Nearly half (45%) of Canadians say his apology is sufficient and he should continue to lead the Liberals on the campaign trail. Nearly two in ten (18%) say that while they don’t think he should resign, and that it does make them question his judgement, they are still open to voting Liberal. Nearly the same proportion (17%) say that while they don’t think he should resign, they can no longer vote for the Trudeau Liberals.

Interestingly, many Liberal voters have not fully moved beyond the issue. While two in three (67%) Liberal voters say that his apology is sufficient and he should continue, one in three (33%) haven’t completely moved on. Three in ten (28%) say it causes them to question his judgement but are still open to supporting the Liberals (and currently are), while 4% say they are likely to no longer support the Liberals, and 1% think the Prime Minister should resign.

Fundamentals Have Deteriorated for Incumbent Prime Minister

Moving in lockstep with the horserace figures, fewer Canadians (40%, down 4 points) now approve (7% strongly/33% somewhat) of the performance of the Trudeau government. Six in ten (60%) disapprove (32% strongly/28% somewhat).

Moreover, only 36% now believe that the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election, down 3 points. Nearly two in three (64%) believe it is time for another federal party to take over, up 3 points.

Last week, the Prime Minister enjoyed a 7-point lead over his closest rival Andrew Scheer in terms of who Canadians think would make the better Prime Minister. This week, the lead is only 2 points. One in three (33%) believe Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister (down 4 points), compared to 31% for Andrew Scheer (up 1 point), 14% for Elizabeth May (unchanged), 14% for Jagmeet Singh (up 4 points), 6% for Maxime Bernier (up 1 point), and 2% for Yves-François Blanchet (up 1 point).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 20 and 23, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources. Respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe (weighting efficiency = 63.9%). The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2019, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. Detailed tabular data tables can be found here: https://ipsosintelligence.ca/canadiancontext/

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD

CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs

416-324-2001

Darrell.Bricker@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people. Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs

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