Toronto, ON, June 30, 2021 – With Parliament recently adjourned for summer break, whisperings of an election being called upon MPs’ return in the fall have started to intensify. According to an Ipsos poll conducted for Global News among 1,501 Canadians both online and via telephone, vote intentions for the Liberals remain high, but the stability in recent months may indicate that support may have plateaued. Though a narrow majority of Canadians believe that the Prime Minister is doing a good job, the Liberals must maintain this goodwill over the summer, as there may be little room for the Liberals to increase their lead over the opposition, but plenty of opportunities for them to lose it.
If an election were held tomorrow, 38% of decided voters would vote for the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau; while this is unchanged from last month, it is also down 2 points from April’s polling. A quarter (26%) would vote for Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party, down 3 points from last month, and two in ten (20%) decided voters would cast their ballot for the NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, down 1 point from last month. Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc would receive 8% of the vote nationally, (or 34% of the popular vote within in Quebec), an increase of 2 points from last month. Internal strife within Annamie Paul’s Green Party does not seem to have hampered support, as it would receive 7% of the vote, up 4 points from last wave. The remaining 2% would vote for another party, down 1 point from last month. Perhaps a sign of rising discontent with the major political parties, a quarter say they would either not vote (8%) or remain undecided (17%), a combined increase of 4 points over last wave.
Even if four in ten decided voters say they’d cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their riding, a slightly higher proportion of Canadians say they approve of the job the current government is doing; just over half (52%) approve (10% strongly/42% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau (up 2 points), which represents a reserve of goodwill that the incumbent government should be careful to not squander.
The proportion of those who believe that the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election stands at 42%, but is down two points from April. The current government’s approval rating closely matches the popular vote share the Liberals would receive if an election were held today, which is certainly cause for optimism in the Liberal camp.
In addition, a similar proportion (42%) say that of the major party leaders, Justin Trudeau would make the best prime minister. Other party leaders trail the incumbent prime minister, with Jagmeet Singh (23%) polling ahead of his party nationally and Erin O’Toole (23%) polling behind the Conservatives.
Liberals Strong in Most Regions, Among Most Key Demographics
The Liberals have a strong lead among decided voters in four of the country’s main regions, which would be the key to delivering Trudeau a majority government:
- In Ontario, the Liberals (42%) lead the Conservatives (27%), NDP (23%), Greens (7%), and others (2%).
- In Quebec, the Liberals (40%) continue to lead, but the Bloc (34%) is gaining some ground, with the Tories (15%), NDP (8%), Greens (3%), and others (<1%) behind.
- In British Columbia, the Liberals (36%) are in the lead, with the NDP (26%) and Conservatives (23%) trailing. The Green Party (12%) and others (4%) lag behind.
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (46%) have a commanding lead over the Conservatives (25%), NDP (22%), and Greens (5%).
While Liberal support in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada could deliver Trudeau a majority in the next election, he must still reckon with the Prairie provinces, where support is significantly lower:
- In Alberta, the Tories (38%) are in the driver’s seat, with the Liberals (29%) taking a back seat alongside the NDP (21%), Greens (9%), and others (3%). Although the Tories are in control, the challenges the Kenney government have faced in recent months have harmed the Tory brand (down from 46% in April).
- In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (43%) lead the Liberals (25%), NDP (23%), Greens (7%), and others (1%).
Not only do the Liberals lead in all the seat-rich regions of the country, but also among many key demographic voting blocks:
- Among women, the Liberals (40%) are ahead of the NDP (25%), Conservatives (22%), Bloc (5%), Greens (6%), and others (1%).
- Among men, the Liberals (36%) also lead over the Conservatives (29%), followed by the NDP (15%), Bloc (10%), Greens (7%), and others (3%).
- Among those aged 55+, a core constituency for the Conservatives, the Liberals (40%) lead the Conservatives (29%), followed by the NDP (13%), Bloc (9%), Greens (6%), and others (3%) further behind.
- Among those aged 35-54, the Liberals (38%) have a commanding lead over the Conservatives (25%), NDP (20%), Bloc (8%), Greens (6%), and others (2%).
- Among those aged 18-34, the Liberals (37%) are far ahead of the NDP (29%) and Conservatives (20%), while the Bloc (5%), Greens (8%), and others (<1%) trail.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between June 17 and 22, 2021, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,501 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,001 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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