Vancouver, BC, June 30, 2017 — There is not going to be a snap election in BC. But in the alternate universe where the Lieutenant Governor granted Christy Clark’s request for a new election, the BC Liberals will enter the campaign with a lead. A new Ipsos online poll, taken a few days after the BC Liberal throne speech, shows that the post-election battle for public opinion has been most favourable to the BC Liberals, who now have a clear lead over the NDP among decided voters. In addition, Christy Clark maintains a small advantage over John Horgan as perceived best premier of the province, and more British Columbians say they approve than disapprove of the recent throne speech.
The BC Liberals (44%) lead the NDP (38%) among decided voters, with the Green Party in third place at 14%. The BC Liberals are up 4 points from our most recent poll (June 8-11) and the same 4 points from the provincial election (40% in both). The NDP is down 4 points from our most recent poll and down 2 points from the provincial election (42% and 40% respectively). The Green Party is down 1 point from our most recent poll and down 3 points from the provincial election (15% and 17% respectively). These results exclude the 18% (up 3 points) of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference for any party.
While the BC Liberals have an overall lead, they still trail in Metro Vancouver, the region where they lost seats, and their majority, in the recent election. The NDP still leads by 44% to 39% over the BC Liberals in Metro Vancouver (Greens are 14%). The BC Liberals have increased their lead in the North/Interior (55% Liberal to 27% NDP, 11% Green) and lead by a statistically insignificant 4 points on Vancouver Island (41% Liberal, 37% NDP, 21% Green).
The BC Liberals are doing the best job of holding their support from the recent election. Among decided voters, 95% of recent BC Liberal voters say they would do so again. This compares to 88% of recent NDP voters and 78% of recent Green Party voters.
Christy Clark (31%, up 2 points) has a narrow, but not statistically significant, lead of 3 points over John Horgan (28%, unchanged) as the choice of British Columbians as to who would make the best Premier of British Columbia. Andrew Weaver is a third choice at 11% (down 1 point). Three-in-ten (31%, unchanged) residents are undecided as to which leader would make the best Premier.
The media, pundits and political junkies paid a lot of attention to the recent throne speech, but the general public wasn’t quite as captivated. Slightly less than half (48%) of British Columbians say they read, saw or heard anything about the throne speech.
Among those who read, saw or heard about the throne speech, there was more approval than disapproval. Half (50%) of those with recall say they approve of the plans in the throne speech (8% strongly, 42% somewhat). Four-in-ten (40%) say they disapprove of the plans in the throne speech (20% strongly, 20% somewhat) and 10% are undecided.
Most past election BC Liberal voters say they approve of the throne speech (78%) but two-in-ten (18%) disapprove. Roughly one-third of both recent NDP voters (34% approve, 56% disapprove) and Green voters (35% approve, 52% disapprove) say they approve of the throne speech, presumably because it contained many items from the platforms of their own parties.
About the Study
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll of 800 British Columbians conducted June 26 to 28, 2017. The poll was conducted online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel. These data were statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Senior Vice President, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373-5130
About Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of Canadian American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
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