Canadians More Favourable Towards Charest; But CPC Voters Slightly Prefer Poilievre

If They Could Vote for the Next CPC Leader, Canadians Would Choose Charest, but Conservative Voters Would Elect Poilievre

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson SVP, Canada, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, July 23, 2022 – The race to replace Erin O’Toole as Conservative Party leader is down to five candidates with Jean Charest and Pierre Poilievre clearly in the lead. One (Charest) leads with Canadians, while the other (Poilievre) leads with Conservative Party voters. This is according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

Not only does Charest lead among Canadians, but his lead has also been building since April (+8%). This includes a +18% gain among intending Conservative Party voters. Further results show:

  • Among all Canadians, 22% would vote for Jean Charest, followed by Pierre Poilievre (15%), Scott Aitchison (4%), Leslyn Lewis (4%), or Roman Baber (2%). A majority (52%) say they do not know who they would vote for.
  • Among self-declared Conservative Party voters, a third would select Poilievre (34%) as the new leader, with Jean Charest garnering 23% of the vote. Lewis (8%), Aitchison (5%) and Baber (1%) all trail well behind but could be kingmakers if one of the leading candidates does not win a majority of the vote outright.

As Canadians Become More Familiar with Candidates, Charest is Only Candidate Not Viewed More Unfavourably Overall

As the campaign progresses and the field narrows, Canadians are becoming more familiar with the candidates. The proportion who now ‘don’t know enough’ to have an opinion about the various candidates has declined. However, greater awareness hasn’t necessarily increased candidate support. Unfavourable impressions have increased for every candidate except Jean Charest who has held steady. Scott Aitchison (+4), Roman Baber (+2) and Jean Charest (+6) have all improved, while impressions of Pierre Poilievre (-2) have declined while Leslyn Lewis has stayed steady.

Canadians’ Perception of CPC Leadership Candidates

Candidate

% Favourable

% Unfavourable

% Don’t know enough about them

Scott Aitchison

13% (+4)

23% (+5)

64% (-9)

Roman Baber

14% (+2)

25% (+8)

61% (-9)

Leslyn Lewis

15% (-)

26% (+4)

59% (-1)

Jean Charest

33% (+6)

34% (-)

33% (-5)

Pierre Poilievre

25% (-2)

35% (+4)

40% (-2)

 

Poilievre Holds Thin Lead in Favourability among CPC Voters

Pierre Poilievre is still viewed favourably by half (49%) of Conservative voters – dropping only a point – while his unfavourable impressions have increased by 9 points. Notably, Jean Charest (45%) registered an 18-point surge in favourability bringing him to only 4-points behind Poilievre, dropping his unfavourables by 5 points in the process. Aitchion and Baber both gained 8 points in favourability, while Lewis has gained one point.

Aside from Poilievre (+9 pts) and Lewis (+8 pts), all candidates saw a drop in their unfavourables (Aitchison 12 pts; Baber 9 pts; Charest 5 pts). As the race continues to tighten, especially at the top, more Conservative voters have made up their minds about the candidates still in the race, as the proportion of those who don’t know enough about them has decreased by 13% on average.

Conservative Voters’ Perception of Leadership Candidates

Candidate

% Favourable

% Unfavourable

% Don’t know enough about them

Scott Aitchison

18% (+8)

26% (-12)

56% (-17)

Roman Baber

20% (+8)

26% (-9)

54% (-16)

Leslyn Lewis

23% (+1)

28% (+8)

49% (-10)

Jean Charest

45% (+18)

35% (-5)

20% (-13)

Pierre Poilievre

49% (-1)

29% (+9)

22% (-8)

 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 12-13, 2022, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

Sean Simpson
Senior Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs Canada
+1 416 324 2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

 

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP

 

www.ipsos.com

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson SVP, Canada, Public Affairs

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