Dead Heat down the Home Stretch: In Final Days of Campaign, Liberals (32%, unchanged) and Tories (32%, -3) are Neck and Neck while NDP (21%, unchanged) Vote Holds Steady

Deadlocked Races in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia Underscore Tightness of Campaign

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  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, Sep 15, 2021 — As we enter the final days of the federal election campaign, the Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. The momentum that the Conservatives have enjoyed throughout most of the race has been halted and even somewhat reversed (down 3 points), while support for the NDP and Liberals has held steady.

If the election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives and the Liberals would both receive 32% of the decided national popular vote, while the NDP would receive 21% of the vote. On a national basis, the Bloc would receive 7% of the vote (unchanged), (32% of the vote within Quebec), while the Green Party (4%, +2) and PPC (3%, +1) would receive a smaller share of the vote. One percent (1%, +1) would vote for some other party, and 4% would not vote. One in ten (11%, -1) Canadians remain undecided.

A federal election is not one national race, but rather a series of regional races.  In each of the seat-rich regions of the country, the vote is razor thin:

  • In Ontario, the Liberals (37%) have only a slight lead over the Conservatives (33%), a lead which is half what the Liberals enjoyed on Election Night in 2019. The NDP (21%) is competitive within the province, while the PPC (5%), Green (4%) and other parties (1%) are further behind.
  • In Quebec, the Liberals (33%) and Bloc (32%) remain entangled, while the Conservatives (23%) are also showing a decent amount of strength within the province. The NDP (7%), Greens (3%) and others (2%) are well behind.
  • In British Columbia, a three-way tie among the NDP (31%), Liberals (29%) and Conservatives (28%) persists, while the PPC (6%), Greens (4%) and others (2%) trail.
  • In Alberta, the Tory (48%) lead over the NDP (27%), Liberals (18%), Greens (5%), PPC (1%) and others (1%) remains strong.
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (42%) also have a strong lead over the Liberals (24%), NDP (22%), PPC (6%), Greens (4%) and others (2%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (36%) and NDP (34%) lead the Conservatives (25%), while the Green Party (5%) is well behind in the region.

The close race is also reflected in the key age and gender demographic groups studied:

  • Among women, the Liberals (32%) have a slight advantage over the Conservatives (29%) and NDP (24%), while the Bloc (6%), Greens (5%), PPC (4%) and others (1%) are behind.
  • Among men, the Conservatives (35%) have a small lead over the Liberals (32%), while the NDP (18%), Bloc (8%), Greens (3%), PPC (3%) and others (1%) lag.
  • Among those aged 55+, the Liberals (35%) and Conservatives (35%) are tied, while the NDP (13%), Bloc (11%), Greens (3%), PPC (2%) and others (1%) trail.
  • Among those aged 35-54, the Liberals (34%) have the edge over the Tories (30%), NDP (23%), Bloc (5%), Greens (4%), PPC (4%) and others (<1%).
  • Among those aged 18-34, the NDP (30%) have the lead over the Tories (28%), Liberals (25%), Greens (6%), Bloc (4%), PPC (4%) and others (3%).

A majority (53%) of Canadians say they’re absolutely certain about their vote choice or that they’ve already voted, up 4 points since last week. Bloc (61%), and Conservative (58%) supporters are most likely to be committed to their vote choice, while Liberal (55%), PPC (53%), Green (45%) and NDP (44%) voters are less certain of their choice.

With vote intentions for the Liberals holding steady, it’s not surprising to see that approval ratings of the Prime Minister’s performance are also unchanged. Fewer than half (45%, -1 since last week) of Canadians approve (11% strongly/34% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government, while just over half (55%, +1) disapprove. Mirroring these figures, 45% believe things in Canada are heading in the right direction (down 3 points since the start of the election campaign), while 54% believe things are off on the wrong track (up 4 points). One percent (1%) is undecided.

Moreover, four in ten (38%) believe that the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau has done a good job and deserves re-election (unchanged since last week), while 60% (down 2 points) believe that it’s time for another party to take over in Ottawa. Two percent (2%) don’t know or refused to say either way.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 10 and 13, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n = 2,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,501 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2021, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. Detailed tabular data tables can be found here: https://ipsosintelligence.ca/canadiancontext/

 

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos

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The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs

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