Toronto, ON, February 26, 2022 – In the aftermath of the trucker protests, the Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked in national vote support, diverging very little from the results of the federal election last fall, despite the trucker protests, a rapidly-evolving COVID situation, and a Conservative party in disarray.
If an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 32% of the decided national popular vote (down 1 point since the election), while the Conservative under interim leader Candice Bergen would also receive 32% of the vote (down 2 points). Benefiting from the slight softening among the leading two parties is Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, who would receive 23% of the decided vote nationally, up 5 points since the election.
The Bloc Quebecois would receive 6% nationally (down 2 points) or 27% in Quebec, while support for the PPC (4%, -1 pt) and Green parties (3%, +1 pt) has remained relatively stable. One percent (1%) would vote for some other party, while two in ten Canadians overall are either undecided (12%) or say they would not vote (8%).
As was the case in the federal election, all three of Canada’s most populous provinces have tight two-way races:
- In Ontario, the Liberals (36%) are a nose ahead of the Conservatives (33%) while the NDP (23%) has a solid showing. The PPC (4%), Green Party (1%) and other parties (2%) are well behind.
- In Quebec, the Liberals (32%) are narrowly ahead of the Bloc (27%), and Conservatives (24%), with the NDP (15%), Greens (2%) and PPC (1%) trailing.
- In British Columbia, the NDP (34%) and Liberals (33%) are locked in a dead heat while the Conservatives (22%) have dropped to third position. The Green Party (10%) has its strongest appeal in BC, while the PPC (1%) barely registers.
- In Alberta, the Conservatives (52%) maintain a strong lead over the Liberals (20%), NDP (18%), PPC (6%), Green Party (1%) or other parties (3%).
- In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (39%) are being challenged by the NDP (35%), while the Liberals (19%), PPC (7%) and other parties (1%) are off the pace.
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (39%) enjoy a lead while the Conservatives (26%) and NDP (26%) jockey for second position. Nearly one in ten (9%) would vote for the PPC.
Also underscoring the tight race nationally is that neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives have taken a lead among men or women:
- Among women, the Conservatives (31%) and Liberals (31%) are tied, while the NDP (27%) is in a very close third position. The Bloc (4%), Greens (3%), PPC (3%) and others (1%) lag.
- Among men, the Conservatives (32%) and Liberals (32%) are also tied, but the NDP is well back (19%). The Bloc (8%) and PPC (5%) perform better among men, while the Green Party (2%) and others (2%) do not.
From a generational perspective, the Conservatives are struggling to own the votes from their traditional base, those aged 55+, as the Liberals are performing equally well among them, given strong support for COVID restrictions among Boomers. The Liberals are struggling to perform well among their traditional base, those aged 18-34, who have been less likely to support COVID restrictions and who are now looking at the Conservatives or NDP as the alternative.
- Among those aged 18-34, vote support for the Liberals (32%), NDP (30%) and Tories (25%) is tightly packed, while the Bloc (7%), PPC (3%), Greens (1%) and others (1%) fall behind.
- Among those aged 35-54, another tight race among the Conservatives (31%), Liberals (27%) and NDP (27%) ensues, with the Bloc (7%), PPC (4%), Green Party (3%) and others trailing.
- Among those aged 55+, the Conservatives (36%) and Liberals (35%) are tied, but have a comfortable lead over the NDP (15%), Bloc (5%), PPC (5%), Green Party (3%) and others (2%).
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About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between February 18 and 21, 2022, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources. Respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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