Liberals (32%, -1 pt) and Conservatives (32%, -2 pts) Remain Deadlocked in National Vote Intentions in Aftermath of Trucker Protests

Toronto, ON, February 26, 2022 – In the aftermath of the trucker protests, the Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked in national vote support, diverging very little from the results of the federal election last fall, despite the trucker protests, a rapidly-evolving COVID situation, and a Conservative party in disarray.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 32% of the decided national popular vote (down 1 point since the election), while the Conservative under interim leader Candice Bergen would also receive 32% of the vote (down 2 points). Benefiting from the slight softening among the leading two parties is Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, who would receive 23% of the decided vote nationally, up 5 points since the election.

The Bloc Quebecois would receive 6% nationally (down 2 points) or 27% in Quebec, while support for the PPC (4%, -1 pt) and Green parties (3%, +1 pt) has remained relatively stable. One percent (1%) would vote for some other party, while two in ten Canadians overall are either undecided (12%) or say they would not vote (8%).

As was the case in the federal election, all three of Canada’s most populous provinces have tight two-way races:

• In Ontario, the Liberals (36%) are a nose ahead of the Conservatives (33%) while the NDP (23%) has a solid showing. The PPC (4%), Green Party (1%) and other parties (2%) are well behind.
• In Quebec, the Liberals (32%) are narrowly ahead of the Bloc (27%), and Conservatives (24%), with the NDP (15%), Greens (2%) and PPC (1%) trailing.
• In British Columbia, the NDP (34%) and Liberals (33%) are locked in a dead heat while the Conservatives (22%) have dropped to third position. The Green Party (10%) has its strongest appeal in BC, while the PPC (1%) barely registers.
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (52%) maintain a strong lead over the Liberals (20%), NDP (18%), PPC (6%), Green Party (1%) or other parties (3%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (39%) are being challenged by the NDP (35%), while the Liberals (19%), PPC (7%) and other parties (1%) are off the pace.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (39%) enjoy a lead while the Conservatives (26%) and NDP (26%) jockey for second position. Nearly one in ten (9%) would vote for the PPC.

Also underscoring the tight race nationally is that neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives have taken a lead among men or women:

• Among women, the Conservatives (31%) and Liberals (31%) are tied, while the NDP (27%) is in a very close third position. The Bloc (4%), Greens (3%), PPC (3%) and others (1%) lag.
• Among men, the Conservatives (32%) and Liberals (32%) are also tied, but the NDP is well back (19%). The Bloc (8%) and PPC (5%) perform better among men, while the Green Party (2%) and others (2%) do not.

From a generational perspective, the Conservatives are struggling to own the votes from their traditional base, those aged 55+, as the Liberals are performing equally well among them, given strong support for COVID restrictions among Boomers. The Liberals are struggling to perform well among their traditional base, those aged 18-34, who have been less likely to support COVID restrictions and who are now looking at the Conservatives or NDP as the alternative.

• Among those aged 18-34, vote support for the Liberals (32%), NDP (30%) and Tories (25%) is tightly packed, while the Bloc (7%), PPC (3%), Greens (1%) and others (1%) fall behind.
• Among those aged 35-54, another tight race among the Conservatives (31%), Liberals (27%) and NDP (27%) ensues, with the Bloc (7%), PPC (4%), Green Party (3%) and others trailing.
• Among those aged 55+, the Conservatives (36%) and Liberals (35%) are tied, but have a comfortable lead over the NDP (15%), Bloc (5%), PPC (5%), Green Party (3%) and others (2%).

© 2022, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. Detailed tabular data tables can be found here: https://ipsosintelligence.ca/canadiancontext/

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between February 18 and 21, 2022, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n = 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources.  Respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation.  Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP

www.ipsos.com