Toronto, ON, May 18, 2021 – Canadians are continuing to reward the federal Liberals with their intended vote support as approval for the Prime Minister remains high. According to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, the Liberals remain in the driver’s seat with a strong lead over the Conservatives in each of Canada’s most-populous provinces, which would likely secure them a majority government.
If the election were held tomorrow, 38% of decided voters would vote for the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau, unchanged since Ipsos/Global News post-budget survey last month. Three in ten (29%) would vote for Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party, up 2 points since last month. Two in ten (21%) decided voters would cast their ballot for their local NDP candidate, led by Jagmeet Singh, also up 2 points. Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc would receive 6% of the vote nationally, down 1 point (or 30% of the popular vote within in Quebec).
Annamie Paul and the Green Party, would receive 5% of the vote (down 2 points), while the rest of the vote would go to the People’s Party (1%) or some other party (<1%). Two in ten Canadians would either not vote (6%) or remain undecided (15%).
All told, four in ten (41%, down 3 points since last month) Canadians believe the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election, a figure which typically tracks very closely to the percentage of the popular vote the incumbent receives on election day. This figure, along with the fact that 50% of Canadians approve (11% strongly/39% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau (down 1 point), give the Liberals a very good shot at a majority government, should the vote composition fall out favourably for them – which it does.
The Liberals have a strong lead among decided voters in each of Canada’s three most-populous provinces, which would be the key to delivering Trudeau a majority government:
- In Ontario, the Liberals (41%) lead the Conservatives (34%), NDP (20%) Green Party (3%) and others (2%).
- In Quebec, the Liberals (40%) have a ten-point lead over the Bloc (30%), with the Tories (15%), NDP (9%), Greens (5%) and others (1%) behind.
- In British Columbia, the Liberals (36%) are in the lead, with the NDP (28%) and Conservatives (26%) statistically tied in second. The Green Party (9%) and others (2%) lag behind.
- In Alberta, while the Tories (36%) are in the lead over the NDP (30%), Liberals (24%), Greens (5%) and others (4%), it is clear that the struggles of the provincial Kenney government are having adverse effects on the Tory brand more generally, and have chipped away at the federal Tory lead within Alberta.
- In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (39%) lead the Liberals (28%), NDP (26%) and Greens (7%).
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (50%) have a commanding lead over the NDP (26%), Conservatives (22%), and the Greens (2%).
Not only do the Liberals lead in all the seat-rich regions of the country, but also among all of the key demographic voting blocks which drive the overall results:
- Among women, the Liberals (37%) are ahead of the NDP (27%), Conservatives (24%), Bloc (5%), Greens (5%) and others (1%).
- Among men, the Liberals (39%) also lead the Conservatives (33%) which is particularly challenging for the Conservatives, since this is a demographic group they need to win in order to be competitive with the Liberals. The NDP (15%), Bloc (7%), Greens (4%) and People’s Party (2%) trail.
- Among those aged 55+, the Liberals (39%) lead the Conservatives (34%), which is yet another challenge for the Tories, since traditionally this is a core constituency for the Conservatives. The NDP (14%), Bloc (6%), Greens (6%) and others (2%) are further behind.
- Among those aged 35-54, the Liberals (41%) have a commanding lead over the Conservatives (25%), NDP (22%), Bloc (7%), Greens (4%) and others (2%: 1% People’s Party, 1% other).
- Among those aged 18-34, the Liberals (33%) and NDP (30%) are in a tight race, with the Tories (26%) not far back, while the Bloc (6%), Greens (3%) and others (1% People’s party, <1% others) are further back.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 12th and 14th, 2021, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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