Little Change in Vote Intention Since the Election as Conservatives (33%, -1 pt) and Liberals (32%, -1 pt) Remain Deadlocked

Toronto, ON, June 27, 2022 – In the midst of soaring inflation, rising gas prices, and the ongoing pandemic, the Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked in national vote support, diverging very little from the results of the federal election last fall despite geopolitical turmoil and there being no official leader of the Conservative party at the time of polling.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 32% of the decided national popular vote (-1 pt since the election), while the Conservative under interim leader Candice Bergen would receive 33% of the vote (-1 pt since election). Jagmeet Singh and the NDP would receive 21% of the decided vote nationally, up 3 points since the election.

The Bloc Quebecois would receive 8% nationally (no change) or 35% in Quebec, while support for the PPC (2%, -3 pts) and Green parties (2%, stable) has remained relatively stable. One percent (1%) would vote for some other party, while two in ten Canadians overall are either undecided (14%) or say they would not vote (7%).

As was the case in the federal election, Canada’s most populous provinces have tight races:

• In Ontario, fresh on the heels of the provincial election the Conservatives (36%) are just ahead of the Liberals (34%) while the NDP (23%) has a solid showing. The PPC (3%) and Green Party (2%) remain well behind.
• In Quebec, the Liberals (36%) and Bloc (35%) are neck and neck followed by the Conservatives (17%), with the NDP (10%), Greens (3%) and PPC (1%) trailing.
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives have taken the top spot with 39% of the vote. The NDP (29%) and Liberals (28%) are tied for second. The Green Party would receive 3% of the BC vote, while the PPC (2%) sees low engagement.
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (53%) maintain a strong lead over the NDP (21%), Liberals (20%), PPC (1%), or other parties (4%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (41%) remain the dominant party with the NDP (30%) a distant second. The Liberals (24%), PPC (2%) and Greens (1%) are off the pace.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (44%) enjoy a lead followed by the NDP (27%). The Conservatives rest back in third place (19%). 5% would vote Green, the strongest showing across Canada.

Amidst this tight national race are some gender trends that show women leaning Conservative while men leaning progressive.

• Among women, the Conservatives currently lead (32%) with the NDP (29%), and Liberals (28%) tied for second. The Bloc (6%), Greens (2%), PPC (1%) and others (1%) lag.
• Among men, the Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (35%) are tied, but the NDP is well back (14%). The Bloc (9%) and PPC (3%), Green Party (2%) trail.

From a generational perspective, the Conservatives continue to be favoured among their traditional base, those aged 55+, while the Liberals see generational equity in their performance. Notably, the NDP is encroaching on the traditionally Liberal base of those aged 18-34.  

• Among those aged 18-34, vote support falls largely to the NDP (33%) or Liberals (32%) with the Tories (23%) behind. The Bloc (8%), PPC (1%), Greens (1%) and others (2%) fall remain well back of the three main parties.
• Among those aged 35-54, the race is between the Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (33%) with fewer considering voting NDP (19%). The Bloc (6%), Green Party (4%), PPC (3%) and others (2%) trail.
• Among those aged 55+, the Conservatives (39%) lead, but the Liberals (31%) are not far behind. Both parties a comfortable lead over the NDP (16%), Bloc (9%), PPC (2%), and Green Party (2%).

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This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. Detailed tabular data tables can be found here: https://ipsosintelligence.ca/canadiancontext/

About the Study

These are some of the findings of Ipsos polls conducted between June 9-13, 2022, and on June 16-20, 2022, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n = 2,002 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources.  Respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation.  Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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