With Newly-Elected Poilievre at the Helm, Conservatives (35%, +1) Nudge Ahead of Liberals (30%, -3)
Toronto, ON, September 28, 2022 – As Pierre Poilievre settles in as the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News shows the Conservatives have opened a 5-point lead over the Liberals.
If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre would receive 35% of the decided national popular vote, up 1 point since the federal election. Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party would receive 30% of the vote, down 3 points since the election. The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, would receive 20% support, up 2 points, while Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc Quebecois would receive 7% of the vote nationally, down 1 point, equating to 32% in Quebec. Support for Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party would come in at 3% (down 2 points), while 3% would vote for the leaderless Green Party, up 1 point, and 2% would vote for some other party. One in ten (10%) say they would not vote, while 14% are unsure of who they would vote for in the next federal election.
The Tories lead in every province west of Quebec, while the Liberals lead the Tories in Quebec and Atlantic Canada:
- In British Columbia, the Conservatives (39%) are ahead of the Liberals (34%), NDP (20%), Green (5%), PPC (1%) and other parties (1%).
- In Alberta, the Conservatives (52%) have a commanding lead over the NDP (20%), Liberals (17%), Green (1%) or other parties (9%).
- In Saskatchewan and Manitoba (54%), the Conservative lead over the Liberals (23%), NDP (16%), PPC (4%), and Greens (2%) is solid.
- In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (37%) have the advantage over the Liberals (30%), NDP (23%), the Greens (4%), PPC (4%) and others (2%).
- In Quebec, the Bloc (32%) and the Liberals (31%) are tied, well ahead of the Conservatives (20%), NDP (12%), PPC (2%), Greens (1%) and others (2%).
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (39%) lead the NDP (28%), Conservatives (26%), PPC (4%) and Greens (3%).
As the Liberal government grows longer in the tooth, four in ten (42%) approve (8% strongly/34% somewhat) of its performance under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, down 4 points from Ipsos’ final poll prior to the 2021 election. Conversely, six in ten disapprove (33% strongly/25% somewhat). It is interesting to note that the proportion strongly disapproving of the government’s performance is four-times greater than the proportion of Canadians who strongly approve.
Government approval ratings are highest in BC (53%) and Atlantic Canada (49%) and lower in Ontario (43%), Quebec (38%), Alberta (30%), and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%). Those aged 18-34 are much more approving (49%) than those aged 35-54 (38%) or 55+ (40%). Women (47%) are significantly more likely than men (36%) to approve of the Liberal Government’s performance.
A third (33%) of Canadians believe the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election (down 4 points since the election), while two in three (67%) say that it is time for another party to take over in Ottawa. Those in Atlantic Canada (39%), Ontario (37%) and BC (36%) are most likely to say the incumbent Liberals deserve re-election, while residents of Quebec (30%), Alberta (27%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (27%) are less likely to agree. Those aged 18-34 are most likely to believe the government deserves re-election (38%), followed by those aged 55+ (35%) and 35-54 (29%). Women (37%) are also more likely than men (30%) to feel this way.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 19 to 21, 2022, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
About Ipsos
Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.
Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.
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