Tax Reform Turmoil Leaves Liberal Support Unscathed

Toronto, Ontario, September 28, 2017 — Despite the attention and debate that the Liberal government’s proposed tax reforms have incited in the news media and public debate, a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News reveals that the Liberals remain largely unscathed in terms of voter support.

 If a federal election were held tomorrow, 39% of decided Canadians would vote for the Liberals under Justin Trudeau, while 32% of Canadians would vote for Scheer’s Conservatives. Two in ten (20%) would support the NDP – presently without a leader – while 5% of the vote would go to the Bloc, and 4% for other parties, including the Green Party. Two in ten Canadians either don’t know (13%) who they would vote for, or would not vote (6%).

In comparison to an Ipsos poll conducted six months ago, the national popular vote results are identical. Clearly the issues that have caused the government some public-relations grief over the last six months haven’t had any lasting impact on Canadians’ voting intentions, perhaps as a result of having a lesser-known leader of the Conservatives in Andrew Scheer, and an NDP still voting for its leader.

• In Ontario, the Liberals (42%) lead the Conservatives (34%), NDP (19%) and other parties (5%).
• In Quebec, the Liberal (40%) margin over the Bloc (24%), Conservatives (17%), NDP (17%) and other parties (3%) is significant.
• In British Columbia, the NDP (34%) and Liberals (34%) lead the Tories (27%) and others (5%).
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (53%) have a solid lead over the Liberals (36%), federal NDP (10%) and others (1%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (37%) and Liberals (34%) lead the NDP (24%) and others (5%).
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (41%) lead the Conservatives (35%), NDP (20%) and other parties (4%).

The relative stability in support for the Liberals is also apparent in their overall approval rating: A majority (55%) of Canadians ‘approve’ (11% strongly/44% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau, down just 1 point since the March poll – although it is down 4 points since this question was last asked two weeks ago.

Approval ratings are highest in Atlantic Canada (63%), British Columbia (59%), Ontario (59%), slightly softer in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (54%) and Quebec (52%), and lowest in Alberta (43%). Approval of the Liberals is highest among those with a household income of $100K or more (66%), and among Millennials (67%) when compared to Gen X (55%) and Boomers (45%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 25 and 27, 2017, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD

CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
416-324-2001
[email protected]  

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of Canadian American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs is the polling partner for Global News. Internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.