It’s the Ontario Tories’ Election to Lose as they Remain in the Driver’s Seat (38%) Ahead of the Liberals (28%) and NDP (24%) in Lead up to Ontario General Election

Toronto, ON, March 21, 2022 – The Ontario general election is shaping up to be the Progressive Conservatives’ to lose, as they remain in the driver’s seat less than three months ahead of Election Day, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

If the election were held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives under Premier Doug Ford would receive 38% of the decided popular vote, well ahead of the Liberals under Steven Del Duca (28%) and Andrea Horwath’s NDP (24%). Fewer would vote for the Green Party (4%) or some other party (5%). Two in ten Ontarians would either not vote (7%) or remain undecided (13%).

Many of the traditional demographic advantages of the Progressive Conservative Party are evident in these data:

• Among men, the PCs (41%) are strongly favoured over the Liberals (27%), NDP (22%), Green Party (2%) or others (7%).
• Among women, the PC (34%) advantage over the Liberals (29%), NDP (26%), Greens (6%) and others (3%) is less substantial.
• Among those aged 55+, the Progressive Conservatives are well ahead (52%) of the Liberals (26%), NDP (15%), Greens (2%) and other parties (6%).
• Among those aged 35-54, a three-way race ensues among the PCs (32%), Liberals (32%), and NDP (27%), while the Greens (6%) and others (4%) trail.
• Among those aged 18-34, the NDP (37%) is solidly in the lead, well ahead of the Liberals (27%), PCs (23%), Green Party (7%) and others (5%).

There are also significant differences in voting intentions among the key regions of Ontario:

• Within the ever-important 905 swing region of the GTA, the Progressive Conservatives (51%) have a commanding lead over the Liberals (25%), NDP (16%), Greens (6%) and others (2%). A lead of this size in the 905 would assure the Tories re-election.
• Within the 416, Toronto proper, a tighter race among the PCs (34%), Liberals (29%), NDP (26%) ensues, with the Greens (5%) and others (6%) behind.
• Within southwest Ontario, the NDP (34%), PCs (30%) and Liberals (29%) are in a tight race, while the Greens (3%) and others (4%) trail.
• Within central Ontario, the Tories (34%) and Liberals (32%) are in a tight race, but the NDP (20%) and other parties (14%) are well back.
• Within eastern Ontario, the PCs (34%) and Liberals (34%) are tied, while the NDP (25%) also has a reasonably strong showing. The Greens (4%) and others (3%) lag.
• Within northern Ontario, the PCs (36%), NDP (22%) and Liberals (21%) lead ahead of the Greens (6%) and other parties (15%).

Underscoring the strong vote intentions for the Tories is that 50% of Ontarians approve (12% strongly/38% somewhat) of the performance of the Progressive Conservatives under Premier Doug Ford, while half (50%) disapprove (24% strongly/26% somewhat). Approval is higher among those aged 55+ (59%) than it is among those aged 35-54 (46%) and 18-34 (43%). Regionally, approval is highest in the 905 (61%), and lower in the 416 (49%), the east (47%), southwest (46%), central (45%), and northern Ontario (40%).

Four in ten (42%) Ontarians believe that the Ford government has done a good job and deserves re-election, a figure which typically tracks very closely to the proportion of the vote the incumbent receives on election night – a proportion which would yield a second majority government for the Progressive Conservatives. Conversely, six in ten (58%) believe it’s time for another provincial party to take over. A majority of those aged 55+ believe the government deserves re-election (54%), while support for re-election is softer among those aged 35-54 (37%) or 18-34 (30%). More men (45%) than women (39%) believe that the Ford government deserves another term on the government benches. Half (50%) of 905 residents believe the government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while fewer in Toronto proper (43%), central (41%), southwest (38%), eastern (37%) and northern Ontario (27%) say the same.

In another advantage for the Premier, Ontarians believe that PC leader and current Premier Doug Ford would make the best Premier of Ontario (43%). This compares with one in three (34%) who believe that NDP leader Andrea Horwath would make best premier, while 22% believe that Liberal leader Steven Del Duca would make the best leader of Ontario. Doug Ford is the strong preference for a majority of those aged 55+ (58%), while Andrea Horwath is preferred among younger adults aged 18-34 (46%). Among those aged 35-54, Ford (39%) and Horwath (39%) are tied, with Del Duca (22%) well behind.

© 2022, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 11 and 15, 2022, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n = 850 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources.  Respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation.  Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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