UCP (52%) well in front of NDP (35%) as April 16 election called

NDP Competitive in Edmonton (NDP 44%, UCP 43%). Notley (30%) Close to Kenney (33%) as Best Premier

UCP (52%) well in front of NDP (35%) as April 16 election called

The author(s)

  • Gregory Jack Vice President, Public Affairs
Get in touch

Calgary, AB — A new Global/Ipsos poll conducted using a dual online and phone methodology shows the United Conservative Party (UCP) with a commanding lead among decided and leaning Alberta voters, in the lead-up to the provincial election called today. Albertans will go to the polls on April 16, 2019, following a 28 day campaign. The UCP enjoys broad, strong support across the province, particularly among Calgary residents and older voters.  The NDP is competitive among Edmonton residents and younger voters, and Rachel Notley performs better than her party.  She is competitive with Jason Kenney as the choice for best premier, and leads Kenney on several leadership attributes, including trust.

The Horserace

Vote: The United Conservative Party (UCP) starts the campaign with 17-point lead over the governing New Democrats. Currently, 52% of decided and leaning voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the UCP. The NDP are next at 35% support, followed by the Alberta Party (6%) and Alberta Liberals (5%).  Other parties garner a combined 2%. These results exclude the 19% of Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.

  • Regions: The race is very close in Edmonton, with the leading parties in a statistical tie (44% NDP vs. 43% UCP). The UCP is ahead by a wide margin in Calgary (57% UCP vs. 32% NDP) and in the rest of Alberta (57% UCP vs. 30% NDP).
  • Age Gap: The NDP is also competitive among younger voters. Among the 18-34 years segment, the race is a statistical tie (39% UCP vs. 38% NDP). The UCP have an 18-point lead among the 35-54 years segment (53% UCP vs. 35% NDP) and a massive 30-point lead among the 55+ years segment (62% UCP vs. 32% NDP).

Voter Certainty: The UCP’s vote appears more solid than the NDP’s. More than six-in-ten (63%) UCP voters say they are ‘very certain’ that they will vote UCP on election day. In contrast, fewer than half (47%) of NDP voters say they are ‘very certain’ about their own vote choice.

Time for Change: Albertans are open to change. A majority (52%) believe it’s time for another provincial party to take over. Only three-in-ten (31%) believe the Notley government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 17% are undecided.

The Issues

Top Issues: Economic concerns make up the top issues for Alberta voters. The top three issues include jobs/employment (30%), building pipelines (25%) and the general economy (22%). Other issues of concern include healthcare (18%), government spending/deficit (16%) and the carbon tax (14%).

Best to Deal with Issues: Jason Kenney and the UCP have a lead over Rachel Notley and the NDP on most issues. Kenney/UCP are chosen as the party best able to deal with each of the top three voter issues including building pipelines (lead by 16 points), jobs/employment (lead by 15 points), and the general economy (lead by 13 points). Though not top issues, Kenney/UCP have even bigger leads on the issues of government spending/deficit (22 point lead), oil and gas other than pipelines (18 point lead) and taxes in general (17 point lead).

Rachel Notley and the NDP are seen as better able to deal with several issues, including social issues (11 point lead), the environment (10 point lead), education (8 point lead), and health care (8 point lead).

Which of the leaders/parties do you think would do the best job on each of the following issues?

Notley/
NDP

Kenney/
UCP

Mandel/
Alberta Party

Khan/
Liberal Party

Don’t
know

AB’s relationship with the federal government

24%

31%

7%

6%

32%

Building pipelines

25%

41%

5%

3%

25%

Carbon tax

25%

39%

6%

4%

26%

Education

33%

25%

8%

5%

29%

Environment

33%

23%

7%

5%

31%

General economy

25%

38%

8%

4%

25%

Government spending/deficit

19%

41%

7%

4%

29%

Healthcare

34%

26%

7%

4%

30%

Infrastructure investment

24%

35%

8%

3%

31%

Jobs/employment

24%

39%

7%

5%

26%

Oil and gas related issues (other than pipelines)

24%

42%

6%

3%

24%

Social issues (e.g. poverty, homelessness)

33%

22%

8%

5%

32%

Taxes (other than carbon tax)

22%

39%

8%

4%

28%

Note:  Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Leadership

Best Premier: The UCP’s substantial lead in vote and on the major issues does not extend to leadership, where Jason Kenney (33%) has only a statistically insignificant 3-point lead over Rachel Notley (30%) as the leader Albertans think would make the best premier of the province. Stephen Mandel is a distant third choice (8%), while only 2% select David Khan. One-quarter (26%) of Albertans are undecided as to which party leader would make the best premier.

Leadership Qualities: Both Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney have leadership strengths. Notley leads widely on being caring (13 point lead) while Kenney leads widely on being tough (13 point lead).

Notley also leads Kenney on being likeable (8 point lead), being honest (5 point lead) and being trustworthy (5 point lead). The two leaders are very close on the attribute of being competent (4 point lead for Kenney), and are statistically tied on the attribute of being smart.

Which of the party leaders do you think is best described by each of the following words?

Rachel Notley

Jason Kenney

Stephen Mandel

David Khan

Don’t

know

Caring

35%

22%

7%

3%

33%

Competent

30%

34%

8%

4%

25%

Honest

28%

23%

8%

3%

38%

Likeable

31%

23%

12%

4%

31%

Smart

29%

30%

9%

4%

28%

Tough

24%

37%

8%

3%

28%

Trustworthy

29%

24%

8%

3%

37%

Note:  Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Expected Outcome

Just over half (54%) of Albertans are expecting a UCP election win, with more expecting a UCP majority (36%) than UCP minority (17%). Two-in-ten (21%) are expecting the NDP to retain power (8% majority, 12% minority). Another two-in-ten (22%) have no opinion as to which party will win the upcoming election.

About the Study

These are the findings of a Global/Ipsos poll conducted between March 15 and 17, 2019. For this survey, a sample of 900 Alberta eligible voters was interviewed, including 800 online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources and 100 by CATI phone surveys (mix of cell and landlines). The precision of Ipsos polls conducted fully or partly online is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall results (900 interviews total) are accurate to within ±3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. Some questions are based on a sample of 800 respondents and are accurate to within ±4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

To complete the CATI phone surveys, a total of 594 individuals were asked to participate. Call outcomes break down as 100 completes (17%), 345 refusals (58%), 41 not eligible (7%), 97 callbacks (16%) and 11 language barriers (2%).

© 2019, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication.  Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data.  Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Gregory Jack
Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs
+1 403-604-7804
gregory.jack@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,749.5 million in 2018.

The author(s)

  • Gregory Jack Vice President, Public Affairs

Society