UCP (50%, up 3) Lead NDP (40%, up 1) by 10-Points as Campaign Closes

NDP ahead in Edmonton, UCP ahead in Calgary and Rest of Alberta

The author(s)

  • Gregory Jack Vice President, Public Affairs
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Calgary, AB — A final Global/Ipsos campaign poll conducted online and by live telephone interviewers shows the United Conservative Party (UCP) finishing the Alberta election campaign well ahead of the governing NDP among decided and leaning Alberta voters. The UCP leads in Calgary, while the NDP leads in Edmonton. The UCP has a huge lead in the rest of Alberta.

The Horserace

Vote: The United Conservative Party (UCP) finishes the election campaign with a 10-point lead over the NDP. Currently, 50% (up 3 from Apr 5-8) of decided and leaning voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the UCP, compared to 40% (up 1) for the NDP. The Alberta Party has slipped to 7% support (down 3), with the Alberta Liberals (1%, down 1) and other parties (2%, unchanged) having very little support. These results exclude the 13% (down 6) of Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.

  • Regions: The UCP leads by 10-points in Calgary (50% UCP vs. 40% NDP) and the NDP leads by 9-points in Edmonton (50% NDP vs. 41% UCP). The UCP continues to lead by a wide margin in the rest of Alberta (59% UCP vs. 30% NDP).
  • Ages: The NDP has a statistically insignificant 3-point lead among the 18-34 years segment (44% NDP vs. 41% UCP). The UCP have a 10-point lead among the 35-54 years segment (50% UCP vs. 40% NDP) and a larger 21-point lead among the 55+ years segment (58% UCP vs. 37% NDP). If turnout follows the normal pattern skewing to the 55+ years segment, the UCP’s lead could be higher than the 10-points among all voters.

Voter Certainty: Supporters of all parties are more certain of their choice compared to one week ago, but the UCP’s vote is still slightly more solid than the NDP’s. Eight-in-ten (80%, up 12) UCP voters say they are ‘very certain’ that they will vote UCP on election day. This compares to seven-in-ten (69%, up 10) NDP voters and just four-in-ten (41%, up 7) Alberta Party voters.

Time for Change: Albertans continue to be open to change, although there is an increase in positive sentiment to the current government. A slim majority (52%, up 1) believe it’s time for another provincial party to take over. The percentage who believe the Notley government has done a good job and deserves re-election has increased 6-points (from 32% to 38%), while undecided has declined 7-points (from 17% to 10%).

Impact of Turnout: A major factor on Election Day (and advance polls) is which voters turn up to cast their ballot. Our voter turnout model suggests a lower voter turnout favours the UCP. A higher voter turnout will help the NDP, but not enough to make a sizable dent in the UCP’s lead.

The Issues

Top Issues: The top campaign issue remains jobs/employment (32%, down 4). Other top issues include healthcare (23%, up 4), building pipelines (22%, up 1) and the general economy (20%, up 4).

Best to Deal with Issues: Since the initial campaign poll (March 15-17), the NDP has improved as best to deal with all issues as undecided voters have shifted to the NDP instead of to the other parties. The UCP, however, leads on three of the top four issues, as follows:

  • Jobs/employment: UCP leads by 9-points (UCP 39% vs. NDP 30%).
  • Healthcare: NDP leads by 14-points (NDP 40% vs. UCP 26%).
  • Building pipelines: UCP leads by 8-points (UCP 40% vs. NDP 32%).
  • The general economy: UCP leads by 9-points (UCP 39% vs. NDP 30%).

Which of the leaders/parties do you think would do the best job on each of the following issues? (CHANGE VS. MAR 15-17)

Notley/
NDP

Kenney/
UCP

Mandel/
Alberta Party

Khan/ Liberal Party

Don’t Know

AB’s relationship with the federal government

32% (+8)

32% (+1)

6% (-1)

5% (-1)

24% (-8)

Building pipelines

32% (+7)

40% (-1)

4% (-1)

2% (-1)

22% (-3)

Carbon tax

31% (+6)

40% (+1)

4% (-2)

3% (-1)

22% (-4)

Education

39% (+6)

26% (+1)

10% (+2)

4% (-1)

22% (-7)

Environment

38% (+5)

23% (=)

8% (+1)

4% (-1)

26% (-5)

General economy

30% (+5)

39% (+1)

8% (=)

3% (-1)

20% (-5)

Government spending/deficit

24% (+5)

41% (=)

8% (+1)

4% (=)

24% (-5)

Healthcare

40% (+6)

26% (=)

9% (+2)

4% (=)

21% (-9)

Infrastructure investment

32% (+8)

31% (-4)

8% (=)

3% (=)

27% (-4)

Jobs/employment

30% (+6)

39% (=)

6% (-1)

3% (-2)

22% (-4)

Oil and gas related issues (other than pipelines)

30% (+6)

42% (=)

7% (+1)

2% (-1)

20% (-4)

Social issues (e.g. poverty, homelessness)

40% (+7)

22% (=)

8% (=)

5% (=)

25% (-7)

Taxes (other than carbon tax)

27% (+5)

38% (-1)

8% (=)

5% (+1)

23% (-5)

Note:  Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Leadership

Best Premier: Albertans are split in their assessment of who would make the best premier of Alberta. Rachel Notley (37%, up 5) has a statistically insignificant 2-point lead over Jason Kenney (35%, up 7) as the leader Albertans think would make the best premier of the province. Stephen Mandel is a distant third choice (9%, down 2), while only 3% (unchanged) select David Khan. Only 16% (down 10) of Albertans are undecided as to which party leader would make the best premier.

Leadership Qualities: Since the post-debate poll (Apr 5-8) Rachel Notley has improved on all leadership attributes, capturing the support of undecideds. Nevertheless, Jason Kenney still leads Rachel Notley as the leader best described as tough (11 point lead). Notley leads Kenney on all other tested attributes especially caring (21 point lead), likeable (16 point lead) and honest (15 point lead)

Which of the party leaders do you think is best described by each of the following words?

(CHANGE VS. APR 5-8)

Rachel Notley

Jason Kenney

Stephen Mandel

David Khan

Don’t know

Caring

41% (+4)

20% (+1)

9% (+1)

3% (=)

27% (-6)

Competent

36% (+4)

31% (+2)

8% (-1)

3% (=)

22% (-6)

Honest

33% (+7)

18% (-1)

10% (-4)

4% (=)

34% (-4)

Likeable

37% (+5)

21% (-1)

13% (-2)

6% (+1)

23% (-3)

Smart

35% (+6)

28% (+3)

10% (-1)

5% (-1)

22% (-6)

Tough

28% (+6)

39% (+2)

5% (+1)

4% (=)

24% (-8)

Trustworthy

33% (+6)

22% (+2)

10% (-1)

3% (=)

31% (-8)

Note:  Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Expected Outcome

Six-in-ten (60%, up 4) Albertans expect a UCP election win, with more expecting a UCP majority (40%, up 4) than UCP minority (20%, unchanged). Slightly more than two-in-ten (23%, up 1) are expecting the NDP to retain power (11% majority, down 1 - 12% minority, up 2). Another 14% (down 5) have no opinion as to which party will win the upcoming election.

About the Study

These are the findings of a Global/Ipsos poll conducted between April 11 and 14, 2019. For this survey, a sample of 1,202 Alberta eligible voters was interviewed, including 801 online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources and 401 by CATI phone surveys (mix of cell and landlines). These data have been weighted by age, gender, region and education to reflect the Alberta population according to Census figures. The precision of Ipsos polls conducted fully or partly online is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall results (1,202 interviews total) are accurate to within ±3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. Some questions are based only on the sample of 801 online respondents and are accurate to within ±3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

To complete the CATI phone surveys, a total of 2,407 individuals were asked to participate. Call outcomes break down as 401 completes (17%), 1,619 refusals (67%), 158 not eligible (7%), 198 callbacks (8%) and 31 language barriers (1%).

© 2019, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication.  Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data.  Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Gregory Jack
Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs
+1 403-604-7804
gregory.jack@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

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The author(s)

  • Gregory Jack Vice President, Public Affairs

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